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I mean, even in very high CoL places, one might be spending $2500/month for a 1bd apartment. Even returns on $1m should comfortably cover that cost, without eve

I mean, even in very high CoL places, one might be spending $2500/month for a 1bd apartment. Even returns on $1m should comfortably cover that cost, without even any drawdown (a poor assumption since you can't take it with you). Or are we to assume the cost of renting some 5bd McMansion, which nobody needs in retirement? Maybe it's also including cost of health care? Even most Americans aren't paying for that in retirement. > The answer is somewhere between $3 million and $5 million, according to the 553 investors worldwide who shared their views in the latest MLIV Pulse survey. About a third of investors pegged it at $3 million, and roughly another third at $5 million. 1/3rd of South Americans replied $20 million, lol. Are their sources on this reliable? > One in Ten Portfolio Managers Is Considering Working Forever That's it? I'd throw darts at a wall until I die too.

ulrashida 4y ago
Reliable, but biased. The survey was run on Bloomberg Terminal owners (and some portion from their online news subscribers).
- em500 4y ago
  Context: a Bloomberg Terminal subscription costs around $2000/month per user. (Of course for most users it’s paid by the company they work for.)
  - landtuna 4y ago
    The online newsletter where you can answer the surveys is free. I sometimes participate in them.
philsnow 4y ago
> one might be spending $2500/month for a 1bd apartment. Even returns on $1m should comfortably cover that cost, without even any drawdown The number I've historically heard for "safe rate of withdrawal" is 4%, but a lot of people are saying 3% these days. 3% of $1M is $30k, which is exactly $2500/month * 12 months. My risk tolerance is too high to consider that to be comfortable. Another issue is that here in the states we don't have health care guaranteed by the government, and the likelihood that you'll have some kind of condition that incurs more costs increases as you get older (up to and including something like memory care, which is very expensive).
robocat 4y ago
Here’s a calculation for Christchurch, New Zealand, today: 1. Own a home (landlord shenaningans suck, especially when older). Median price in Christchurch is about $700k, but ideally need to spend a bit more. 2. If over 65, get superannuation of about $20k after tax. 3. Median income is about $60k before tax. So let’s aim for $40k from investments before tax (investment income is taxed). No mortgage so reasonable middle class lifestyle (nowhere near extravagant). 4. Need $40k above inflation (so not depleting investment). Also need to cover volatility risk. My guess is $1.5 million investments to do that. 5. Government is slowly tightening screws on the “wealthy” so my guess is that you need another $1 million to cover that risk in next decades. In New Zealand, $1M NZD total today would leave you struggling (careful budgeting for heating and food, no budget to cover health risks beyond government care). $2M NZD total equity is risky but likely okay. $3M NZD total equity would be minimum to have reasonably low risk, and a comfortable middle class lifestyle. I.e. you need 1 to 2 million NZD investments. Much more after inflation in future decades.

ulrashida 4y ago

Reliable, but biased. The survey was run on Bloomberg Terminal owners (and some portion from their online news subscribers).

em500 4y ago
Context: a Bloomberg Terminal subscription costs around $2000/month per user. (Of course for most users it’s paid by the company they work for.)
- landtuna 4y ago
  The online newsletter where you can answer the surveys is free. I sometimes participate in them.

philsnow 4y ago

> one might be spending $2500/month for a 1bd apartment. Even returns on $1m should comfortably cover that cost, without even any drawdown The number I've historically heard for "safe rate of withdrawal" is 4%, but a lot of people are saying 3% these days. 3% of $1M is $30k, which is exactly $2500/month * 12 months. My risk tolerance is too high to consider that to be comfortable. Another issue is that here in the states we don't have health care guaranteed by the government, and the likelihood that you'll have some kind of condition that incurs more costs increases as you get older (up to and including something like memory care, which is very expensive).

robocat 4y ago

Here’s a calculation for Christchurch, New Zealand, today: 1. Own a home (landlord shenaningans suck, especially when older). Median price in Christchurch is about $700k, but ideally need to spend a bit more. 2. If over 65, get superannuation of about $20k after tax. 3. Median income is about $60k before tax. So let’s aim for $40k from investments before tax (investment income is taxed). No mortgage so reasonable middle class lifestyle (nowhere near extravagant). 4. Need $40k above inflation (so not depleting investment). Also need to cover volatility risk. My guess is $1.5 million investments to do that. 5. Government is slowly tightening screws on the “wealthy” so my guess is that you need another $1 million to cover that risk in next decades. In New Zealand, $1M NZD total today would leave you struggling (careful budgeting for heating and food, no budget to cover health risks beyond government care). $2M NZD total equity is risky but likely okay. $3M NZD total equity would be minimum to have reasonably low risk, and a comfortable middle class lifestyle. I.e. you need 1 to 2 million NZD investments. Much more after inflation in future decades.