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As soon as I saw interviews with the Nikola guy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trevor_Milton https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trevor_Milton) I started shorting. Wh

As soon as I saw interviews with the Nikola guy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trevor_Milton https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trevor_Milton) I started shorting. What a rollercoaster that was. When Hindenburg published this gem: https://hindenburgresearch.com/nikola/ https://hindenburgresearch.com/nikola/ I literally started screaming with joy like a lunatic at my phone in the middle of the street. Turns out... even an obvious obvious obvious fraud can keep going like wile coyote for prolonged periods of time. Do not friggin recommend. I also have been trading the Turkish lira for over a year. Also do not recommend as they flat out cheat and gaslight on.. frankly historical scales.. as well as get foreign currency under the table from fellow despots. If you're wondering what the hell would possess me: at some point they started making schemes like "citizens it is your patriotic duty to sell us your gold jewelry so we may smelt it, we will give you a great price promise" -- the list of shenanigans got so long and comical and the central bank balance sheets so iffy I couldn't help myself. It is very true that western media under reports this, they might mention the out of control inflation but don't explain how the country is run by clueless mobsters. Being correct directionally is not nearly enough. Be very careful. This Adani thing mostly bounced back already, unless you're willing to be very patient as it unfurls over literal years you very easily could lose money despite being right.

moneywoes 4y ago
How do you short, through puts? Or selling shares short
- recuter 4y ago
  Nikola is the only time I didn't use puts. With forex you get a lot more leverage. I don't recommend any of this. I think you need to be dead inside.
  - sokoloff 4y ago
    I also directly shorted $NKLA shares. There was no realistic way they were going to make post-SPAC buyers money, but I also didn’t know if it would take 3 months or 3 years to unwind.
tablespoon 4y ago
> Turns out... even an obvious obvious obvious fraud can keep going like wile coyote for prolonged periods of time. Do not friggin recommend. I think there's a famous saying about that: "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
lordnacho 4y ago
How could he interview that poorly that you decided to sell immediately? Got a link?
- recuter 4y ago
  He would say stuff like "this truck runs on an html5 supercomputer which is the industry standard" with his best poker face. Here is a random CNBC clip, look at these absolute lunatics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYBj83HttG4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYBj83HttG4 I remember being unable to sleep wondering if the audience at his events were all hired actors. But then they couldn't be as that is a conspiracy involving too many people. Looking online he had actual fans and true believers and they were basically illiterate people gambling he is the next Elon, absolutely nothing would phase them. The journalists interviewing him clearly had no idea about the difference between a gas powered and a hydrogen vehicle. And neither did he as he would steer the conversation into folksy directions whenever anything remotely technical came up. I did a lot of soul searching and accepted that this is the stupidest time line and the emperor really is naked. And this time I caught his tiny wiener flapping in the wind in time. It was just beyond obvious. And the market cap kept rising and rising!
  - alfor 4y ago
    Same here. I thought it was so obvious and then called out publicly and exposed. It doesn’t matter. I think that as long as the right people in the media are greased it doesn't enter the mass consciousness. If you look at the mass media, you will see that the actors on the news will show emotions around certain subjects, they will make a grind or a disgusted face while talking about a problem at a company or a political movement. That is what change people mind when repeated many times. This video (from a shadow banned account) show how the media talk with one voice. https://youtu.be/ZggCipbiHwE https://youtu.be/ZggCipbiHwE
    - tablespoon 4y ago
      > This video (from a shadow banned account) show how the media talk with one voice. https://youtu.be/ZggCipbiHwE https://youtu.be/ZggCipbiHwE That was that Sinclair media thing. The fact that they have independent teams serving many smaller markets gave it away. If (say) CNN were to do the same thing, they could probably reach an even bigger audience with one guy reading the script, which can't be exposed with a supercut.
machina_ex_deus 4y ago
When you're shorting an obvious fraud, remember that those who need to sell are those dumb enough to buy the fraud in the first place. You're not betting just on whether they did a mistake, you're betting on when will they realize it.
- dccoolgai 4y ago
  Exactly. You wouldn't do "obvious fraud" with this setup: you would do "things that aren't obvious but a couple good researchers could prove". You don't even need to scare everyone out of the security, just do enough to make a few big players go "ooh, I didn't know _that_".
vinay_ys 4y ago
"Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
eurasiantiger 4y ago
> the country is run by clueless mobsters This is the correct take. The world is nowadays largely owned and operated by various criminal organisations that rake in more cash in a month than entire nations do in a year. Thank you, prohibition.

moneywoes 4y ago

How do you short, through puts? Or selling shares short

recuter 4y ago
Nikola is the only time I didn't use puts. With forex you get a lot more leverage. I don't recommend any of this. I think you need to be dead inside.
- sokoloff 4y ago
  I also directly shorted $NKLA shares. There was no realistic way they were going to make post-SPAC buyers money, but I also didn’t know if it would take 3 months or 3 years to unwind.

tablespoon 4y ago

> Turns out... even an obvious obvious obvious fraud can keep going like wile coyote for prolonged periods of time. Do not friggin recommend. I think there's a famous saying about that: "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

lordnacho 4y ago

How could he interview that poorly that you decided to sell immediately? Got a link?

recuter 4y ago
He would say stuff like "this truck runs on an html5 supercomputer which is the industry standard" with his best poker face. Here is a random CNBC clip, look at these absolute lunatics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYBj83HttG4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYBj83HttG4 I remember being unable to sleep wondering if the audience at his events were all hired actors. But then they couldn't be as that is a conspiracy involving too many people. Looking online he had actual fans and true believers and they were basically illiterate people gambling he is the next Elon, absolutely nothing would phase them. The journalists interviewing him clearly had no idea about the difference between a gas powered and a hydrogen vehicle. And neither did he as he would steer the conversation into folksy directions whenever anything remotely technical came up. I did a lot of soul searching and accepted that this is the stupidest time line and the emperor really is naked. And this time I caught his tiny wiener flapping in the wind in time. It was just beyond obvious. And the market cap kept rising and rising!
- alfor 4y ago
  Same here. I thought it was so obvious and then called out publicly and exposed. It doesn’t matter. I think that as long as the right people in the media are greased it doesn't enter the mass consciousness. If you look at the mass media, you will see that the actors on the news will show emotions around certain subjects, they will make a grind or a disgusted face while talking about a problem at a company or a political movement. That is what change people mind when repeated many times. This video (from a shadow banned account) show how the media talk with one voice. https://youtu.be/ZggCipbiHwE https://youtu.be/ZggCipbiHwE
  - tablespoon 4y ago
    > This video (from a shadow banned account) show how the media talk with one voice. https://youtu.be/ZggCipbiHwE https://youtu.be/ZggCipbiHwE That was that Sinclair media thing. The fact that they have independent teams serving many smaller markets gave it away. If (say) CNN were to do the same thing, they could probably reach an even bigger audience with one guy reading the script, which can't be exposed with a supercut.

machina_ex_deus 4y ago

When you're shorting an obvious fraud, remember that those who need to sell are those dumb enough to buy the fraud in the first place. You're not betting just on whether they did a mistake, you're betting on when will they realize it.

dccoolgai 4y ago
Exactly. You wouldn't do "obvious fraud" with this setup: you would do "things that aren't obvious but a couple good researchers could prove". You don't even need to scare everyone out of the security, just do enough to make a few big players go "ooh, I didn't know _that_".

vinay_ys 4y ago

"Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

eurasiantiger 4y ago

> the country is run by clueless mobsters This is the correct take. The world is nowadays largely owned and operated by various criminal organisations that rake in more cash in a month than entire nations do in a year. Thank you, prohibition.