7 ms·

IMO the demise of modern journalism presents an absolutely enormous opportunity for the few people with the right skills: If this is even close to true (66% of

IMO the demise of modern journalism presents an absolutely enormous opportunity for the few people with the right skills: If this is even close to true (66% of corp fraud undetected) imagine if you could get even a couple researchers to detect more of it using publicly available information. Set up a massive short position on that company and fire off press releases on a slow Newsday to share what you found with the public. I actually knew some professional researchers and talked to them about this once. I'm too lazy to actually put it together but pretty sure it's a viable idea.

miohtama 4y ago
This is what Hinderburg is doing with their massive Adani short.
- recuter 4y ago
  As soon as I saw interviews with the Nikola guy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trevor_Milton https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trevor_Milton) I started shorting. What a rollercoaster that was. When Hindenburg published this gem: https://hindenburgresearch.com/nikola/ https://hindenburgresearch.com/nikola/ I literally started screaming with joy like a lunatic at my phone in the middle of the street. Turns out... even an obvious obvious obvious fraud can keep going like wile coyote for prolonged periods of time. Do not friggin recommend. I also have been trading the Turkish lira for over a year. Also do not recommend as they flat out cheat and gaslight on.. frankly historical scales.. as well as get foreign currency under the table from fellow despots. If you're wondering what the hell would possess me: at some point they started making schemes like "citizens it is your patriotic duty to sell us your gold jewelry so we may smelt it, we will give you a great price promise" -- the list of shenanigans got so long and comical and the central bank balance sheets so iffy I couldn't help myself. It is very true that western media under reports this, they might mention the out of control inflation but don't explain how the country is run by clueless mobsters. Being correct directionally is not nearly enough. Be very careful. This Adani thing mostly bounced back already, unless you're willing to be very patient as it unfurls over literal years you very easily could lose money despite being right.
  - moneywoes 4y ago
    How do you short, through puts? Or selling shares short
    - recuter 4y ago
      Nikola is the only time I didn't use puts. With forex you get a lot more leverage. I don't recommend any of this. I think you need to be dead inside.
      - sokoloff 4y ago
        I also directly shorted $NKLA shares. There was no realistic way they were going to make post-SPAC buyers money, but I also didn’t know if it would take 3 months or 3 years to unwind.
  - tablespoon 4y ago
    > Turns out... even an obvious obvious obvious fraud can keep going like wile coyote for prolonged periods of time. Do not friggin recommend. I think there's a famous saying about that: "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
  - lordnacho 4y ago
    How could he interview that poorly that you decided to sell immediately? Got a link?
    - recuter 4y ago
      He would say stuff like "this truck runs on an html5 supercomputer which is the industry standard" with his best poker face. Here is a random CNBC clip, look at these absolute lunatics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYBj83HttG4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYBj83HttG4 I remember being unable to sleep wondering if the audience at his events were all hired actors. But then they couldn't be as that is a conspiracy involving too many people. Looking online he had actual fans and true believers and they were basically illiterate people gambling he is the next Elon, absolutely nothing would phase them. The journalists interviewing him clearly had no idea about the difference between a gas powered and a hydrogen vehicle. And neither did he as he would steer the conversation into folksy directions whenever anything remotely technical came up. I did a lot of soul searching and accepted that this is the stupidest time line and the emperor really is naked. And this time I caught his tiny wiener flapping in the wind in time. It was just beyond obvious. And the market cap kept rising and rising!
captainkrtek 4y ago
This is a thing with short sellers. https://squaremile.com/culture/fahmi-quadir-dirty-money-interview/ https://squaremile.com/culture/fahmi-quadir-dirty-money-inte... Good piece on Netflix about her and the short position she took
owlninja 4y ago
Could you get whistleblower money as well?
- dccoolgai 4y ago
  I think you have to be an "insider" to qualify as a whistleblower. NAL, but I think if you were gonna do this you'd have to be squeaky clean using only public data. Otherwise it's textbook insider trading.
chewz 4y ago
> Set up a massive short position on that company and fire off press releases on a slow Newsday to share what you found with the public. How naive... No One would listen... [1] > No One Would Listen is the thrilling story of how the Harry Markopolos, a little-known number cruncher from a Boston equity derivatives firm, and his investigative team uncovered Bernie Madoff's scam years before it made headlines, and how they desperately tried to warn the government, the industry, and the financial press. [1] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/7740121-no-one-would-listen https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/7740121-no-one-would-lis...
taeric 4y ago
My gut is that it is more likely that 66% of fraud being undetected is more along the lines of "mistakes are easy to make and often ignored." That is, for it to be fraud, intent matters. More, for it to be substantial and actually a problem, value matters. Consider, is it employee theft if they take a notepad home? I'd wager not. Now, if they empty out the supply closet? Almost certainly yes.

miohtama 4y ago

This is what Hinderburg is doing with their massive Adani short.

recuter 4y ago
As soon as I saw interviews with the Nikola guy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trevor_Milton https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trevor_Milton) I started shorting. What a rollercoaster that was. When Hindenburg published this gem: https://hindenburgresearch.com/nikola/ https://hindenburgresearch.com/nikola/ I literally started screaming with joy like a lunatic at my phone in the middle of the street. Turns out... even an obvious obvious obvious fraud can keep going like wile coyote for prolonged periods of time. Do not friggin recommend. I also have been trading the Turkish lira for over a year. Also do not recommend as they flat out cheat and gaslight on.. frankly historical scales.. as well as get foreign currency under the table from fellow despots. If you're wondering what the hell would possess me: at some point they started making schemes like "citizens it is your patriotic duty to sell us your gold jewelry so we may smelt it, we will give you a great price promise" -- the list of shenanigans got so long and comical and the central bank balance sheets so iffy I couldn't help myself. It is very true that western media under reports this, they might mention the out of control inflation but don't explain how the country is run by clueless mobsters. Being correct directionally is not nearly enough. Be very careful. This Adani thing mostly bounced back already, unless you're willing to be very patient as it unfurls over literal years you very easily could lose money despite being right.
- moneywoes 4y ago
  How do you short, through puts? Or selling shares short
  - recuter 4y ago
    Nikola is the only time I didn't use puts. With forex you get a lot more leverage. I don't recommend any of this. I think you need to be dead inside.
    - sokoloff 4y ago
      I also directly shorted $NKLA shares. There was no realistic way they were going to make post-SPAC buyers money, but I also didn’t know if it would take 3 months or 3 years to unwind.
- tablespoon 4y ago
  > Turns out... even an obvious obvious obvious fraud can keep going like wile coyote for prolonged periods of time. Do not friggin recommend. I think there's a famous saying about that: "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
- lordnacho 4y ago
  How could he interview that poorly that you decided to sell immediately? Got a link?
  - recuter 4y ago
    He would say stuff like "this truck runs on an html5 supercomputer which is the industry standard" with his best poker face. Here is a random CNBC clip, look at these absolute lunatics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYBj83HttG4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYBj83HttG4 I remember being unable to sleep wondering if the audience at his events were all hired actors. But then they couldn't be as that is a conspiracy involving too many people. Looking online he had actual fans and true believers and they were basically illiterate people gambling he is the next Elon, absolutely nothing would phase them. The journalists interviewing him clearly had no idea about the difference between a gas powered and a hydrogen vehicle. And neither did he as he would steer the conversation into folksy directions whenever anything remotely technical came up. I did a lot of soul searching and accepted that this is the stupidest time line and the emperor really is naked. And this time I caught his tiny wiener flapping in the wind in time. It was just beyond obvious. And the market cap kept rising and rising!

captainkrtek 4y ago

This is a thing with short sellers. https://squaremile.com/culture/fahmi-quadir-dirty-money-interview/ https://squaremile.com/culture/fahmi-quadir-dirty-money-inte... Good piece on Netflix about her and the short position she took

owlninja 4y ago

Could you get whistleblower money as well?

dccoolgai 4y ago
I think you have to be an "insider" to qualify as a whistleblower. NAL, but I think if you were gonna do this you'd have to be squeaky clean using only public data. Otherwise it's textbook insider trading.

chewz 4y ago

> Set up a massive short position on that company and fire off press releases on a slow Newsday to share what you found with the public. How naive... No One would listen... [1] > No One Would Listen is the thrilling story of how the Harry Markopolos, a little-known number cruncher from a Boston equity derivatives firm, and his investigative team uncovered Bernie Madoff's scam years before it made headlines, and how they desperately tried to warn the government, the industry, and the financial press. [1] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/7740121-no-one-would-listen https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/7740121-no-one-would-lis...

taeric 4y ago

My gut is that it is more likely that 66% of fraud being undetected is more along the lines of "mistakes are easy to make and often ignored." That is, for it to be fraud, intent matters. More, for it to be substantial and actually a problem, value matters. Consider, is it employee theft if they take a notepad home? I'd wager not. Now, if they empty out the supply closet? Almost certainly yes.