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I guess the bananocalypse will eventually come some day. But it has been predicted to come for decades already. 2005: The Cavendish, the version of the banana

by sampo 4y ago

I guess the bananocalypse will eventually come some day. But it has been predicted to come for decades already. 2005: The Cavendish, the version of the banana that rests on top of American breakfast cereals, is "on a crash course toward extinction." 2010: a new strain of the Panama disease, that the Cavendish banana is not resistant to, sprung up in 1992 and threatens the world’s most popular banana once again 2016: Why bananas as we know them might go extinct https://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/13/business/media/no-seriously-save-the-bananas.html https://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/13/business/media/no-serious... https://www.todayifoundout.com/index.php/2010/06/commercial-banana-plants-are-perfect-clones-of-one-another/ https://www.todayifoundout.com/index.php/2010/06/commercial-... https://edition.cnn.com/2015/07/22/africa/banana-panama-disease/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2015/07/22/africa/banana-panama-dise...

ZeroGravitas 4y ago
The bananapocalypse already happened: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana
- hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
  Hence, the article...
- stewartbutler 4y ago
  Eh, they definitely aren't fit for major cultivation anymore, but you can still find them. I picked up a basket (with a bunch of other varieties) from miamifruit.org a while back. They can't ship a lot of things to California, but if you live elsewhere in the lower 48 you should check them out.
taeric 4y ago
The truly baffling thing to me, is I swear one of the hardest emphasized lessons in grade school was on the dangers of a monoculture. And yet, the vast majority of farming seems to just double down on it. Worse, non-farming does to. So many societies and institutions seem to try and build up the equivalent.
- pixl97 4y ago
  It's just an advanced form of 'hand to mouth' existence, maybe we should call it 'capital to wallet' The fact a crash will come tomorrow doesn't stop most actors from doing what's going to profit them the most today.
  - taeric 4y ago
    I think it is a little more nuanced, in practice. For a lot of amazing progress and such, the short term doubling down on something seems to make a ton of sense. As such, for the individual farmer and all, risky idea. For the town and the society, they can often ride the reward with minimal exposure to the risk. My personal pipe dream is that we found a way to not load so much downside of risks on individuals. Which seems to be what we do.
  - blowski 4y ago
    It’s another example of “the tragedy of the commons”. Each individual actor is acting in their own short-term interest, at the expense of everybody’s long term interest.
- Zababa 4y ago
  It is the same thing as centralization/decentralization. Centralization is more efficient (economies of scale and other things) but more fragile.
- acchow 4y ago
  I am seeing a renaissance in Apple varieties. Coffea is not a monoculture. Will other fruits and vegetables follow?
- jandrese 4y ago
  The problem is that monocultures enjoy great economies of scale, and it's extremely difficult to fight the market. The little farmer who grows a variety of crops is out-competed by the corn growing neighbor who has relatively cheap specialized equipment and seeds available to allow him to work ever larger and more productive fields for year after year. The little guy ends up closing shop before the neighbor gets wiped out by some highly specialized pathogen. As John Maynard Keynes noted, "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." Monocultures might be a bad idea in the long term, but for immediate profits they cannot be beat.

by sampo 4y ago

ZeroGravitas 4y ago

The bananapocalypse already happened: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana

hn_throwaway_99 4y ago
Hence, the article...
stewartbutler 4y ago
Eh, they definitely aren't fit for major cultivation anymore, but you can still find them. I picked up a basket (with a bunch of other varieties) from miamifruit.org a while back. They can't ship a lot of things to California, but if you live elsewhere in the lower 48 you should check them out.

taeric 4y ago

The truly baffling thing to me, is I swear one of the hardest emphasized lessons in grade school was on the dangers of a monoculture. And yet, the vast majority of farming seems to just double down on it. Worse, non-farming does to. So many societies and institutions seem to try and build up the equivalent.

pixl97 4y ago
It's just an advanced form of 'hand to mouth' existence, maybe we should call it 'capital to wallet' The fact a crash will come tomorrow doesn't stop most actors from doing what's going to profit them the most today.
- taeric 4y ago
  I think it is a little more nuanced, in practice. For a lot of amazing progress and such, the short term doubling down on something seems to make a ton of sense. As such, for the individual farmer and all, risky idea. For the town and the society, they can often ride the reward with minimal exposure to the risk. My personal pipe dream is that we found a way to not load so much downside of risks on individuals. Which seems to be what we do.
- blowski 4y ago
  It’s another example of “the tragedy of the commons”. Each individual actor is acting in their own short-term interest, at the expense of everybody’s long term interest.
Zababa 4y ago
It is the same thing as centralization/decentralization. Centralization is more efficient (economies of scale and other things) but more fragile.
acchow 4y ago
I am seeing a renaissance in Apple varieties. Coffea is not a monoculture. Will other fruits and vegetables follow?
jandrese 4y ago
The problem is that monocultures enjoy great economies of scale, and it's extremely difficult to fight the market. The little farmer who grows a variety of crops is out-competed by the corn growing neighbor who has relatively cheap specialized equipment and seeds available to allow him to work ever larger and more productive fields for year after year. The little guy ends up closing shop before the neighbor gets wiped out by some highly specialized pathogen. As John Maynard Keynes noted, "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." Monocultures might be a bad idea in the long term, but for immediate profits they cannot be beat.