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I don't know about you, but I find these "pro-West" side to be quite specious in their arguments. What idiot really believes that Russia of all people would wan

I don't know about you, but I find these "pro-West" side to be quite specious in their arguments. What idiot really believes that Russia of all people would want to kill their own golden goose ? The argument these geniuses are implicitly making is that either Russians (or more euphemistically "Putin") is a raging lunatic, or that their readers so utterly dim-witted that they'll believe any shit that they'll spin. OTOH, US/UK... has a very long history of false-flags and extremely sophisticated psychological warfare, esp. given the international dominance of the English language.

Analemma_ 4y ago
There’s a very straightforward and plausible rationale for Russia (specifically, Putin) to do it: coup-proofing by forced commitment to not turning the oil back on, like breaking your own steering wheel in a game of chicken and throwing it out the window. There are presumably elites in Russia who would like to see the war end and go back to business-as-usual so they can get their assets and incomes back, and blowing up the pipeline signals to them “that’s not happening. Total commitment is the only option, so don’t even bother trying to replace the current leadership.” Is this definitely what happened? Of course not, we don’t know who did it. But it is a perfectly coherent and plausible claim, and so your hyperbolic statements about “what idiot really believes…” etc. only serve to demonstrate that you haven’t bothered learning about anyone’s position other than yours, and thus that you yourself probably shouldn’t be listened to.
- foverzar 4y ago
  > There’s a very straightforward and plausible rationale for Russia (specifically, Putin) to do it: coup-proofing by forced commitment to not turning the oil back on, like breaking your own steering wheel in a game of chicken and throwing it out the window. And there is an even more straightforward debunking of that version: a) these pipelines have nothing to do with oil, they pipe gas b) these pipelines are only a fraction of all the gas transportation infrastructure: there is a huge pipeline in Ukraine that dwarfs NS1/2 combined (and Ukraine happily accepts Russian money as a transportation fee, they've even raised it recently), there is a pipeline in Belarus, there is Yamal, and there is TurkStream.
- ballenf 4y ago
  That is the strongest case, but I'm still confused by the seemingly conflicting claim that Putin is susceptible to a coup but only if there's a pipeline. Don't Russian elites have nearly as much to lose from this war continuing with or without a pipeline? What exactly would the pipeline change in the these elites calculus, willingness or ability to stage a successful coup? The pipeline repair cost estimates are much lower than the cost of an ongoing war plus oil embargoes. That is, a coup now benefits these elites roughly as much as it would have with a pipeline.
  - shagie 4y ago
    The remaining pipelines for Western Europe go through Belarus and Ukraine. https://www.naturalgasintel.com/ukraine-warns-of-gazprom-pressure-change-on-natural-gas-pipeline/ https://www.naturalgasintel.com/ukraine-warns-of-gazprom-pre... https://coffeeordie.com/russia-relies-on-ukrainian-pipelines https://coffeeordie.com/russia-relies-on-ukrainian-pipelines The Russia - Ukraine - Slovakia / Poland route is not reliable. https://www.eurasiareview.com/04022023-russia-energy-profile-energy-flows-to-europe-decrease-while-increase-to-india-and-china-analysis/ https://www.eurasiareview.com/04022023-russia-energy-profile... > In May 2022, Ukraine suspended operations at the Sokhranivka measuring station and the Novopskov compressor station, which are part of the Soyuz and Brotherhood pipeline system, because of interference by Russian forces. https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/ukraine-cease-russian-gas-transit/ https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/ukraine-cease-russi... > In a press statement, the firm said: “Moreover, the interference of the occupying forces in technical processes and changes in the modes of operation of GTS facilities, including unauthorised gas offtakes from the gas transit flows, endangered the stability and safety of the entire Ukrainian gas transportation system.” --- From a layperson trying to channel Russian leadership, removing Nord stream would mean that the only way for Western Europe to get natural gas is through stability in Ukraine and an easing of tensions between Ukraine and Russia. Russian leadership obviously has their preferred way of accomplishing this. My crystal ball also says that even after the war ends in the favor of Ukraine, that gas pipeline will not be available because of the tensions and the... lets call it "unreliable partnership" that exists ( https://www.naturalgasintel.com/ukraine-warns-of-gazprom-pressure-change-on-natural-gas-pipeline/ https://www.naturalgasintel.com/ukraine-warns-of-gazprom-pre... ) Note that the gas pipeline through Belarus to Poland has also been turned off. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yamal–Europe_pipeline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yamal–Europe_pipeline > On 26 April 2022, Gazprom announced it would stop delivering natural gas to Poland via the Yamal–Europe pipeline, as well as to Bulgaria, as both countries had rejected Russia's demand that payments for gas be made in Russian rubles - a demand allegedly constituting breach of contract. Without the Nord Stream, Yamal, Soyuz/Brotherhood; Southern Europe (Greece, Romania, Italy) are being tempted with gas supplies from Russia by way of Turkey. Russia is additionally trying to tempt Turkey into being its energy hub ( https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/turkeysource/turkey-can-become-an-energy-hub-but-not-by-going-all-in-on-russian-gas/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/turkeysource/turkey-ca... ) with promises of cheap gas, free money (transit fees for the pipeline), and a dependence on Russia for that part of the economy.
- earthboundkid 4y ago
  The most likely coup scenario right now in Russia is that the head of the Wagner Group deposes Putin from the right.
debatem1 4y ago
I'm really surprised to hear people talking about the US, UK, Russia, etc but not talking about Ukraine.
- foverzar 4y ago
  This is actually a very good point. As much as I love sticking it to the US, it's hard not to notice how much Ukraine benefitted from this. The whole goal of NS1/2 was to avoid dealing with Ukraine, but now there is little threat to their gas transportation system and Russia has to pay extra to Ukraine for pumping gas to Europe (and they even raised the fee recently). Still, I doubt Ukraine could have done it alone, but I expect it would make a perfect scapegoat if things get too dangerous for the real mastermind.
lispm 4y ago
The pipeline is not completely destroyed. It could be repaired. Putin attacked the Ukraine and used Energy Dependence as a weapon against Europe. Russia bought energy companies. Russia influenced energy politics and politics in general in these countries. Russia reduced the storage and flow of natural gas before the invasion and prepared it to be used as a political instrument in this war, which is not just a war against the Ukraine, but a war against the West (US, EU, NATO, ...). Energy is one of Russias main weapons against Europe in its expansion politics towards the west. One would be naive to underestimate the will and evil of Putin to use his weapons, to influence European politics - for example by inducing fear in the population because of energy supply shortages. There is plenty further escalation possible. Putin thought that the Ukraine would fall easily into his hands, Controlling the Energy supplies then would be his many insurance. Now he is in a lengthy war against the Ukraine and he needs to instrument more pressure, like creating fear and panic in the western europe population, which could force western politics to make compromises. Russia still has the gas&oil, it has other pipelines and enough existing or future customers. In a conflict the value of this goes up. Temporarily blowing up a pipeline is only increasing this value.
- lispm 4y ago
  Let me add: the blown-up pipelines were three of four newly built. One of the four is not damaged. The damage to the other three pipelines was only in a small area. The pipelines are repairable. The pipeline was mainly a project of Russia and Germany, meant to supply natural gas to German markets (and beyond). The pipelines were not in use, yet. There was zero chance that the pipelines would go in use in the next decade, given the political situation.
  - foverzar 4y ago
    > The pipelines are repairable That is really doubtful, especially at this point when they've been full of seawater for so long. > The pipelines were not in use, yet. NS1 was operational for years, and NS2 was technically too: all the equipment was running and the pipe was pressurized - just turn the tap on. > There was zero chance that the pipelines would go in use in the next decade, given the political situation. I don't think that's fair. Political situation can change easily. Lap journalists could just dust off the ol' narrative of "Ukraine is full of nazis", which was prevalent in pro-western media before the war gone hot and all of this suddenly became "Russian propaganda"
rurp 4y ago
> What idiot really believes that Russia of all people would want to kill their own golden goose ? Putin killed his own golden goose by invading Ukraine. Starting this war has been a disaster for Russia's economic future. Putin either doesn't care about that, or drastically miscalculated. Blowing up the pipeline would be consistent with either mindset.
- foverzar 4y ago
  > Starting this war has been a disaster for Russia's economic future. Or maybe not. I feel like a lot of this comes from misjudging sale of crude resources as "economic future" and a wishful thinking that us Russians are just brainless dummies, incapable of anything else. I've seen the same rhetorics back in 2014 when the first sanctions kicked in, and that lead to automatic protectionist policy and economic growth - new projects, new businesses, new supply chains. One has to realize that current globalized supply chains weren't benefiting Russia at all But that's just my 2 cents.
- stephc_int13 4y ago
  Blowing up the pipeline is not consistent with either mindset. Putin very likely miscalculated his "special operation", that does not mean he is completely crazy or stupid.
- fwungy 4y ago
  [flagged]
  - nkozyra 4y ago
    > Putin was not going to tolerate a NATO member a few minutes of rocket time from Moscow. But ... that's already there and has been for a long time. And now two more neighbors have pledged to join. If the intent was really to stop or reduce the neighboring countries who are NATO members, it hasn't really worked out that well.
    - fwungy 4y ago
      I follow both the NYT and Wapo, and The New Atlas, Douglas MacGregor, and Alexander Mercouris. The latter group has been far more accurate in their predictions and their analysis is far more logically composed.
stephc_int13 4y ago
This is no doubts this sabotage was conducted as a "special operation", and the nature of those is usually to remain secret for a long time. I think Occam's razor is helpful in this case. And I honestly don't care either way. But, I find the media treatment to be interesting. Most of the big ones don't want to touch it with a ten foot pole. Why? They don't hesitate to publish news about UFOs, I don't see why they should be more careful about a Russian pipeline sabotage...
freejazz 4y ago
I'm not sure if the alternative to Hersh being wrong is that Russia did it

Analemma_ 4y ago

There’s a very straightforward and plausible rationale for Russia (specifically, Putin) to do it: coup-proofing by forced commitment to not turning the oil back on, like breaking your own steering wheel in a game of chicken and throwing it out the window. There are presumably elites in Russia who would like to see the war end and go back to business-as-usual so they can get their assets and incomes back, and blowing up the pipeline signals to them “that’s not happening. Total commitment is the only option, so don’t even bother trying to replace the current leadership.” Is this definitely what happened? Of course not, we don’t know who did it. But it is a perfectly coherent and plausible claim, and so your hyperbolic statements about “what idiot really believes…” etc. only serve to demonstrate that you haven’t bothered learning about anyone’s position other than yours, and thus that you yourself probably shouldn’t be listened to.

foverzar 4y ago
> There’s a very straightforward and plausible rationale for Russia (specifically, Putin) to do it: coup-proofing by forced commitment to not turning the oil back on, like breaking your own steering wheel in a game of chicken and throwing it out the window. And there is an even more straightforward debunking of that version: a) these pipelines have nothing to do with oil, they pipe gas b) these pipelines are only a fraction of all the gas transportation infrastructure: there is a huge pipeline in Ukraine that dwarfs NS1/2 combined (and Ukraine happily accepts Russian money as a transportation fee, they've even raised it recently), there is a pipeline in Belarus, there is Yamal, and there is TurkStream.
ballenf 4y ago
That is the strongest case, but I'm still confused by the seemingly conflicting claim that Putin is susceptible to a coup but only if there's a pipeline. Don't Russian elites have nearly as much to lose from this war continuing with or without a pipeline? What exactly would the pipeline change in the these elites calculus, willingness or ability to stage a successful coup? The pipeline repair cost estimates are much lower than the cost of an ongoing war plus oil embargoes. That is, a coup now benefits these elites roughly as much as it would have with a pipeline.
- shagie 4y ago
  The remaining pipelines for Western Europe go through Belarus and Ukraine. https://www.naturalgasintel.com/ukraine-warns-of-gazprom-pressure-change-on-natural-gas-pipeline/ https://www.naturalgasintel.com/ukraine-warns-of-gazprom-pre... https://coffeeordie.com/russia-relies-on-ukrainian-pipelines https://coffeeordie.com/russia-relies-on-ukrainian-pipelines The Russia - Ukraine - Slovakia / Poland route is not reliable. https://www.eurasiareview.com/04022023-russia-energy-profile-energy-flows-to-europe-decrease-while-increase-to-india-and-china-analysis/ https://www.eurasiareview.com/04022023-russia-energy-profile... > In May 2022, Ukraine suspended operations at the Sokhranivka measuring station and the Novopskov compressor station, which are part of the Soyuz and Brotherhood pipeline system, because of interference by Russian forces. https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/ukraine-cease-russian-gas-transit/ https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/ukraine-cease-russi... > In a press statement, the firm said: “Moreover, the interference of the occupying forces in technical processes and changes in the modes of operation of GTS facilities, including unauthorised gas offtakes from the gas transit flows, endangered the stability and safety of the entire Ukrainian gas transportation system.” --- From a layperson trying to channel Russian leadership, removing Nord stream would mean that the only way for Western Europe to get natural gas is through stability in Ukraine and an easing of tensions between Ukraine and Russia. Russian leadership obviously has their preferred way of accomplishing this. My crystal ball also says that even after the war ends in the favor of Ukraine, that gas pipeline will not be available because of the tensions and the... lets call it "unreliable partnership" that exists ( https://www.naturalgasintel.com/ukraine-warns-of-gazprom-pressure-change-on-natural-gas-pipeline/ https://www.naturalgasintel.com/ukraine-warns-of-gazprom-pre... ) Note that the gas pipeline through Belarus to Poland has also been turned off. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yamal–Europe_pipeline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yamal–Europe_pipeline > On 26 April 2022, Gazprom announced it would stop delivering natural gas to Poland via the Yamal–Europe pipeline, as well as to Bulgaria, as both countries had rejected Russia's demand that payments for gas be made in Russian rubles - a demand allegedly constituting breach of contract. Without the Nord Stream, Yamal, Soyuz/Brotherhood; Southern Europe (Greece, Romania, Italy) are being tempted with gas supplies from Russia by way of Turkey. Russia is additionally trying to tempt Turkey into being its energy hub ( https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/turkeysource/turkey-can-become-an-energy-hub-but-not-by-going-all-in-on-russian-gas/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/turkeysource/turkey-ca... ) with promises of cheap gas, free money (transit fees for the pipeline), and a dependence on Russia for that part of the economy.
earthboundkid 4y ago
The most likely coup scenario right now in Russia is that the head of the Wagner Group deposes Putin from the right.

debatem1 4y ago

I'm really surprised to hear people talking about the US, UK, Russia, etc but not talking about Ukraine.

foverzar 4y ago
This is actually a very good point. As much as I love sticking it to the US, it's hard not to notice how much Ukraine benefitted from this. The whole goal of NS1/2 was to avoid dealing with Ukraine, but now there is little threat to their gas transportation system and Russia has to pay extra to Ukraine for pumping gas to Europe (and they even raised the fee recently). Still, I doubt Ukraine could have done it alone, but I expect it would make a perfect scapegoat if things get too dangerous for the real mastermind.

lispm 4y ago

The pipeline is not completely destroyed. It could be repaired. Putin attacked the Ukraine and used Energy Dependence as a weapon against Europe. Russia bought energy companies. Russia influenced energy politics and politics in general in these countries. Russia reduced the storage and flow of natural gas before the invasion and prepared it to be used as a political instrument in this war, which is not just a war against the Ukraine, but a war against the West (US, EU, NATO, ...). Energy is one of Russias main weapons against Europe in its expansion politics towards the west. One would be naive to underestimate the will and evil of Putin to use his weapons, to influence European politics - for example by inducing fear in the population because of energy supply shortages. There is plenty further escalation possible. Putin thought that the Ukraine would fall easily into his hands, Controlling the Energy supplies then would be his many insurance. Now he is in a lengthy war against the Ukraine and he needs to instrument more pressure, like creating fear and panic in the western europe population, which could force western politics to make compromises. Russia still has the gas&oil, it has other pipelines and enough existing or future customers. In a conflict the value of this goes up. Temporarily blowing up a pipeline is only increasing this value.

lispm 4y ago
Let me add: the blown-up pipelines were three of four newly built. One of the four is not damaged. The damage to the other three pipelines was only in a small area. The pipelines are repairable. The pipeline was mainly a project of Russia and Germany, meant to supply natural gas to German markets (and beyond). The pipelines were not in use, yet. There was zero chance that the pipelines would go in use in the next decade, given the political situation.
- foverzar 4y ago
  > The pipelines are repairable That is really doubtful, especially at this point when they've been full of seawater for so long. > The pipelines were not in use, yet. NS1 was operational for years, and NS2 was technically too: all the equipment was running and the pipe was pressurized - just turn the tap on. > There was zero chance that the pipelines would go in use in the next decade, given the political situation. I don't think that's fair. Political situation can change easily. Lap journalists could just dust off the ol' narrative of "Ukraine is full of nazis", which was prevalent in pro-western media before the war gone hot and all of this suddenly became "Russian propaganda"

rurp 4y ago

> What idiot really believes that Russia of all people would want to kill their own golden goose ? Putin killed his own golden goose by invading Ukraine. Starting this war has been a disaster for Russia's economic future. Putin either doesn't care about that, or drastically miscalculated. Blowing up the pipeline would be consistent with either mindset.

foverzar 4y ago
> Starting this war has been a disaster for Russia's economic future. Or maybe not. I feel like a lot of this comes from misjudging sale of crude resources as "economic future" and a wishful thinking that us Russians are just brainless dummies, incapable of anything else. I've seen the same rhetorics back in 2014 when the first sanctions kicked in, and that lead to automatic protectionist policy and economic growth - new projects, new businesses, new supply chains. One has to realize that current globalized supply chains weren't benefiting Russia at all But that's just my 2 cents.
stephc_int13 4y ago
Blowing up the pipeline is not consistent with either mindset. Putin very likely miscalculated his "special operation", that does not mean he is completely crazy or stupid.
fwungy 4y ago
[flagged]
- nkozyra 4y ago
  > Putin was not going to tolerate a NATO member a few minutes of rocket time from Moscow. But ... that's already there and has been for a long time. And now two more neighbors have pledged to join. If the intent was really to stop or reduce the neighboring countries who are NATO members, it hasn't really worked out that well.
  - fwungy 4y ago
    I follow both the NYT and Wapo, and The New Atlas, Douglas MacGregor, and Alexander Mercouris. The latter group has been far more accurate in their predictions and their analysis is far more logically composed.

stephc_int13 4y ago

This is no doubts this sabotage was conducted as a "special operation", and the nature of those is usually to remain secret for a long time. I think Occam's razor is helpful in this case. And I honestly don't care either way. But, I find the media treatment to be interesting. Most of the big ones don't want to touch it with a ten foot pole. Why? They don't hesitate to publish news about UFOs, I don't see why they should be more careful about a Russian pipeline sabotage...

freejazz 4y ago

I'm not sure if the alternative to Hersh being wrong is that Russia did it