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Well then I don't think this dialogue is gonna go anywhere. Agree to disagree.

by corbulo 4y ago

aceofspades19 4y ago
It would help if you explained what they changed it from and to and when maybe.
- Vecr 4y ago
  Two consecutive quarters of negative real economic growth to... Something else. I'm not sure there ever was a new definition, just a denial of recession.
  - jessaustin 4y ago
    We're still pouring public resources into armaments manufacturers, some of whose products have reached or theoretically will reach the battle in Ukraine, so the redefinition project was a success!
- corbulo 4y ago
  Widely agreed upon definition prior to 2022: https://www.forbes.com/sites/leonlabrecque/2019/03/25/what-is-a-recession-anyway/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/leonlabrecque/2019/03/25/what-i... https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/it-depends-what-the-definition-of-recession-is/ https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/it-depends-what-the-de... https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/08/21/fact-checking-president-trumps-remarks-economy/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/08/21/fact-chec... Acknowledgement as the 'popular definition' by St Louis fed in 2009 which uses an even less generous definition than two quarters to define it: "“significant decline in economic activity spreading across the economy, lasting more than a few months.”" https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/pageone-economics/uploads/newsletter/2009/200902.pdf https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/pageone-economics/... Spin cycle: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/29/white-house-goes-on-offense-to-argue-that-the-us-is-not-in-a-recession-.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/29/white-house-goes-on-offense-... https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/recession-biden-yellen-democrats-want-change-definition-cant-change-facts https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/recession-biden-yellen-d... https://fortune.com/2022/07/29/wikipedia-recession-definition-debate-partial-blocking-new-users/ https://fortune.com/2022/07/29/wikipedia-recession-definitio... https://dailycaller.com/2022/07/28/wikipedia-change-definition-recession/ https://dailycaller.com/2022/07/28/wikipedia-change-definiti...
  - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
    This is not an econometric definition. (To the degree it is, the definition contains a free variable regarding the length of the downturn.) Doubting federal statistics or the Fed balance sheet because the White House spins the definition of a downturn is like doubting relativity because Pluto isn't a planet.
    - corbulo 4y ago
      You're saying WH Admins have no influence over economic data collection by the federal government?
      - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
        > WH Admins have no influence over economic data collection by the federal government Less than you seem to think. The Fed, SSA, SBA, FDIC and CFPB are independent agencies. Many data are provided by private sources, e.g. ADP. And the statistical agencies, while legally dependent, are fiercely independent and competitive (i.e. when one starts being co-opted, the others publicly disagree). Moreover, there are hundreds of billions of private dollars which take these data seriously. Is every one of them is in on the conspiracy or duped?
        corbulo 4y ago
        Neither. There's many many sources of economic data, the more money on the line the less reliant on any single source they will be (and the more likely collection will be done in house or contracted and kept private). The more money on the line the more incentive there is to control what will be said. What incentives do they have to make noise if the books are cooked? They would be inviting the ire of the people who regulate them. Simply because something is claimed independent does not mean it is immune to politics and human nature.
  - staticman2 4y ago
    That 2009 link you provided by the St. Louis fed specifically states the fed does not use the popular definition. You just disproved your own claim. The government/ fed definition of recession has not changed since 2009. You claimed it changed in 2022. The 2009 link says "The committee considers a wide range of indicators with particular emphasis on payroll employment and several measures of domestic production and income, such as gross domestic product, gross domestic income, and industrial."

Well then I don't think this dialogue is gonna go anywhere. Agree to disagree.

aceofspades19 4y ago

It would help if you explained what they changed it from and to and when maybe.

Vecr 4y ago
Two consecutive quarters of negative real economic growth to... Something else. I'm not sure there ever was a new definition, just a denial of recession.
- jessaustin 4y ago
  We're still pouring public resources into armaments manufacturers, some of whose products have reached or theoretically will reach the battle in Ukraine, so the redefinition project was a success!
corbulo 4y ago
Widely agreed upon definition prior to 2022: https://www.forbes.com/sites/leonlabrecque/2019/03/25/what-is-a-recession-anyway/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/leonlabrecque/2019/03/25/what-i... https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/it-depends-what-the-definition-of-recession-is/ https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/it-depends-what-the-de... https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/08/21/fact-checking-president-trumps-remarks-economy/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/08/21/fact-chec... Acknowledgement as the 'popular definition' by St Louis fed in 2009 which uses an even less generous definition than two quarters to define it: "“significant decline in economic activity spreading across the economy, lasting more than a few months.”" https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/pageone-economics/uploads/newsletter/2009/200902.pdf https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/pageone-economics/... Spin cycle: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/29/white-house-goes-on-offense-to-argue-that-the-us-is-not-in-a-recession-.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/29/white-house-goes-on-offense-... https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/recession-biden-yellen-democrats-want-change-definition-cant-change-facts https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/recession-biden-yellen-d... https://fortune.com/2022/07/29/wikipedia-recession-definition-debate-partial-blocking-new-users/ https://fortune.com/2022/07/29/wikipedia-recession-definitio... https://dailycaller.com/2022/07/28/wikipedia-change-definition-recession/ https://dailycaller.com/2022/07/28/wikipedia-change-definiti...
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  This is not an econometric definition. (To the degree it is, the definition contains a free variable regarding the length of the downturn.) Doubting federal statistics or the Fed balance sheet because the White House spins the definition of a downturn is like doubting relativity because Pluto isn't a planet.
  - corbulo 4y ago
    You're saying WH Admins have no influence over economic data collection by the federal government?
    - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
      > WH Admins have no influence over economic data collection by the federal government Less than you seem to think. The Fed, SSA, SBA, FDIC and CFPB are independent agencies. Many data are provided by private sources, e.g. ADP. And the statistical agencies, while legally dependent, are fiercely independent and competitive (i.e. when one starts being co-opted, the others publicly disagree). Moreover, there are hundreds of billions of private dollars which take these data seriously. Is every one of them is in on the conspiracy or duped?
      - corbulo 4y ago
        Neither. There's many many sources of economic data, the more money on the line the less reliant on any single source they will be (and the more likely collection will be done in house or contracted and kept private). The more money on the line the more incentive there is to control what will be said. What incentives do they have to make noise if the books are cooked? They would be inviting the ire of the people who regulate them. Simply because something is claimed independent does not mean it is immune to politics and human nature.
- staticman2 4y ago
  That 2009 link you provided by the St. Louis fed specifically states the fed does not use the popular definition. You just disproved your own claim. The government/ fed definition of recession has not changed since 2009. You claimed it changed in 2022. The 2009 link says "The committee considers a wide range of indicators with particular emphasis on payroll employment and several measures of domestic production and income, such as gross domestic product, gross domestic income, and industrial."