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This is why everyone - tech companies, the market, myself - gambled (and apparently lost) and continues to guess that the Fed wouldn’t raise interest rates furt
by Ancalagon 4y ago
This is why everyone - tech companies, the market, myself - gambled (and apparently lost) and continues to guess that the Fed wouldn’t raise interest rates further.
- LatteLazy 4y agoIf you gamble they will and get it wrong you lose a lot more than if you gamble they won't and get it wrong.
- Ancalagon 4y agoWhat?
- LatteLazy 4y agoWhat I said? Betting one way and being wrong is much worse than betting the other way and being wrong.
- Invictus0 4y agoWhat you said wasn't English
- OkayPhysicist 4y agoIf you gamble "they will" and get it wrong, you lose a lot more than if you gamble "they won't" and get it wrong.
- helf 4y agoThis is why punctuation is always important. Also, Oxford Comma or GTFO :)
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- JasonFruit 4y agoTranslation: If you gamble that the Fed will raise rates and get it wrong, you lose more than if you wrongly gamble that they will not.
- jessaustin 4y agoIs this necessarily true? Aren't puts and calls (etc.) symmetrical?
- JasonFruit 4y agoI am not saying it's true or false, but clarifying a wording many misunderstood.
- oofta-boofta 4y agoI don't think tech companies and "the market" even looked that far ahead.
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago> is why everyone - tech companies, the market, myself - gambled Fed profits and losses are arcane. The markets gambled the Fed would ease off because it would miss its soft landing. Raising rates while preserving employment is extremely difficult. To everyone’s surprise, the Fed is managing it. That economic strength, together with persistent core inflation, means higher rates for longer than some thought.
- corbulo 4y agoAre they managing it though? The books are cooked to all hell
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago> they managing it though Yes. Employment is growing, unemployment is steady, growth is positive and inflation has at least stabilised. > The books are cooked to all hell Which books? The Fed’s?
- corbulo 4y agoGovernment-published economic statistics. They literally changed the definition of 'recession' for political convenience. You really think the economy is booming right now like whats being claimed? Every admin manipulates BLS collection data to make unemployment look good.
- staticman2 4y ago"They literally changed the definition of 'recession' for political convenience" They did no such thing.
- corbulo 4y agoWell then I don't think this dialogue is gonna go anywhere. Agree to disagree.
- spaceman_2020 4y agoThe bidding right now is driven by the belief that the Fed has lost control over inflation, and the only way to protect your wealth is to chase equities and generate inflation-beating returns.