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It is so hilarious how all of a sudden we're supposed to be afraid of "spy balloons," despite the fact that this is a free country and if anyone actually wanted
by xp84 4y ago
It is so hilarious how all of a sudden we're supposed to be afraid of "spy balloons," despite the fact that this is a free country and if anyone actually wanted to spy on any given place in North America, they could literally just send an actual spy, he could fly in on a commercial jet, rent a car and just drive over to the interesting place, and look around. Add in a $500 drone and your spy could get a heck of a lot closer look at most things from the comfort of a nearby parked car. This balloon stuff seems incredibly unlikely to be anything.
- oneoff786 4y agoThe places you can casually drive around are no the places you would want to target with a spy balloon.
- Eji1700 4y agoYou can mount a lot more equipment a lot higher up on a balloon, and it can float places you can't legally drive. The, in theory, purpose of such a balloon is going to be something like satellite surveillance but low and in the are long enough to use certain types of sensors that would not work that high up, or that can now penetrate much further into the ground. Not that I really think there's much to be worried about, as even if this is the case its more "nations who's only war will be miserable nuclear fire pretending there's a chance it could be others", but there is absolutely a plausible reason for these.
- woodruffw 4y agoThere’s an element of overreaction here (when isn’t there?), but this also isn’t true: you can’t exactly drive onto missile bases in Montana and take pictures without causing significant problems.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- selcuka 4y agoThe song "99 Luftballons" is becoming a reality after 40 years.
- partiallypro 4y agoYou can't be serious. Spy balloons are definitely happening, just because not every balloon is one doesn't mean it's not so. You can't send a spy and have them fly over nuclear silos or collect transmission date from above them, then beam said data back to your home base near instantly, etc. You can't send a spy to the middle of the ocean above US assets in international waters either. Pretty silly comment. Spying is multi-facet. It's like saying spy satellites aren't real because you could just hire a crop duster and hook up equipment to their plane and have them fly over a city. Comically wrong. I am growing tired and weary of some people thinking everything is fake or some distraction from other things, as if humans are completely incapable of focusing on more than one thing at a time.
- hindsightbias 4y agoComically wrong. You can drive by or fly over nuclear silos any time. They’re right off the highways and county roads. None of them are in restricted or prohibited airspace. You can rent an apartment in Great Falls and capture 1000X more sigint than a silly troll balloon. They have internet there too.
- californical 4y agoThey may not be restricted or prohibited, but it’s still illegal to gather information about them for the purpose of spying
- justsomehnguy 4y agoHey, psst, hey! Just don't tell anyone what you are gathering for the purpose of spying. Just tell (if anyone would be bothered enough) what you are a blogg^W influencer and making a new TikTok.
- seanmcdirmid 4y agoIn china many tourist areas overlook navy bases. If a foreign tourist just points their camera in that direction, they are in for a rough time, perhaps even a couple of years in prison if they want to retaliate for something like the detaining of huawei CEO’s daughter. America is pretty benign in comparison
- Consultant32452 4y agoFYI, here's a 2022 article talking about the US military's budget to build and spy with balloons. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/05/u-s-militarys-newest-weapon-against-china-and-russia-hot-air-00043860 https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/05/u-s-militarys-newes...
- carabiner 4y agoYou can't drive into Area 51. Spy balloons can loiter and be hard to detect due to a low radar cross section, unlike satellites which fly over on set schedules. Consumer drones cannot fly high, are easy to detect, and have very limited endurance.
- jykim256 4y agoSpy balloons like the one we shot down have incredibly large radar cross sections; they just get deleted by radar algorithms because they move so slowly.
- mumumu 4y agoThey have smaller cross section than many stealth jets: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/why-shooting-down-chinas-spy-balloon-over-the-u-s-is-more-complicated-than-it-seems https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/why-shooting-down-chin...
- mrexroad 4y agoFrom the article, a good explanation for why recent incidents used missiles rather than the cannons (among other reasons): “In 1998, a rogue weather balloon from Canada deployed to measure ozone levels accidentally drifted away. BBC reported at the time that the airship was the size of a 25-story building and was operating at an altitude between 27,000 and 37,000 feet, so admittedly much lower than China’s balloon is now. The incursion prompted attempts from Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States to shoot it down, with two Canadian Air Force CF-18 Hornet fighters firing more than 1,000 rounds of ammunition from their own Vulcan cannons into the balloon off the coast of Newfoundland. That balloon took days to come down, at one point even gaining altitude and drifting across Canada and then out over the Atlantic Ocean, which made for a problematic situation for regional air traffic.”
- xp84 4y agoGenuine question: Were any of these balloons floating over something restricted like that? The point I should have said was "Were any of these flying over a restricted area that couldn't have been easily checked out by a drone? If not this seems like an unlikely spy mission, or at best a poorly-planned one."
- NoPicklez 4y agoI dare say if spy balloons became a real thing (speculating), there would be plenty of people saying "Wow they can't even detect a balloon, how can we be confident they find drones or stop people driving near military bases". There's an argument on both sides.
- UncleOxidant 4y ago60,000 feet is about 11 miles. You could get closer to a lot of interesting sites by driving around in an RV full of listening equipment + launch small (difficult to detect) drones to get even closer.
- philistine 4y agoCan you do your plan without any human on foreign soil? We're dealing with a repressive communist regime who fears its own citizens. If there's a technological solution that doesn't involve a human element.
- UncleOxidant 4y agoIf it was the other way around - US trying to drive an RV around China to gather intel - it would be problematic because they'd notice it and shut it down. But sending someone(s) over here to drive an RV around seems pretty easy to pull off.
- philistine 4y agoI wasn’t clear enough. Communist China is scared of its own spies. Doesn’t trust them. If they can replace them with convoluted Rude Goldberg esque flying balloons, they will.
- xp84 4y agoThis is an interesting take. I never considered the fear of defection that an actor like China might have.
- psyfi 4y agoNext: cracking down on mail pigeon carrying microfilms
- dang 4y agoCan you please make your substantive points without snark and swipes? The site guidelines ask you not to do those things, because they degrade discussion and we're trying for something else here. If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful.