4 ms·

Can you explain how each scenario would "lead us to drastically differing ways of trying to mitigate the next virus."? There doesn't seem to be a practical way

Can you explain how each scenario would "lead us to drastically differing ways of trying to mitigate the next virus."? There doesn't seem to be a practical way to control all known bat caves or unsanitary cooking practices. Controlling the illegal wildlife trade would require a huge government commitment which doesn't seem like a viable option.

chitowneats 4y ago
China boasts about successfully reigning in things like drug trafficking/use, cryptocurrency investment, firearms ownership, liberal reforms and revolutions, etc. They can even prevent you from using basic public services if your state-assigned social credit score is too low. Are they lying about this? Exaggerating it in some major way? If not, I see no reason they can't shut down big wet markets like the one in Wuhan. I'm left to assume they know that COVID-19 did not originate in such a place. If it had, there would be an "all hands on deck" campaign by the security services to shut these markets down. It would be accompanied by a massive propaganda effort to convince average Chinese that wild and exotic meat is unsafe.
- MichaelZuo 4y ago
  Did you reply to the wrong comment?
  - chitowneats 4y ago
    No, I was casting doubt on this: "Controlling the illegal wildlife trade would require a huge government commitment which doesn't seem like a viable option." Why isn't it viable if it would prevent a pandemic? They already implement many other authoritarian policies (supposedly successfully) that are meant to curb far less dangerous outcomes.
- Supermancho 4y ago
  > If it had, there would be an "all hands on deck" campaign by the security services to shut these markets down. You're making a lot of rational deductions from assumptions of rational behavior without taking into consideration the backpressure (or negative consequences) that rational behavior will cause. eg If you start an exotic meat campaign, that's an implicit admission that it's a source (if not THE source) and you'll lose your position/head over suggesting it. Even if you could get some momentum, wherever you focus that campaign becomes the defacto ground zero. etc etc etc.
  - chitowneats 4y ago
    > eg If you start an exotic meat campaign, that's an implicit admission that it's a source (if not THE source) and you'll lose your position/head over suggesting it Isn't it the official position of Xi Jinping, and the broader CCP he controls, that it was from the Wuhan wet market? I fail to understand why this is not a target for reform in China. "One bad apple", I guess. Plausible, but not believable, from my perspective.
yunwal 4y ago
> gain of function research
- MichaelZuo 4y ago
  The parent comment addressed that if you read it carefully.
  - haswell 4y ago
    The parent comment asserted that it should be banned regardless, but arguably if such research was discovered to be the cause, it would be banned far more swiftly.
    - MichaelZuo 4y ago
      I'm not quite sure if that was their meaning, since banning amateur GoF research in practice is impossible. Nor would any major country allow external inspectors into such highly classified areas. So there's no way of independently verifying claims of 'banning' in any case.
ratg13 4y ago
If we know it came out of a lab, there would be a stronger call for internationalized safety precautions. As it stands now, BSL3/BSL4 are totally arbitrary depending on what country you are in.

chitowneats 4y ago

China boasts about successfully reigning in things like drug trafficking/use, cryptocurrency investment, firearms ownership, liberal reforms and revolutions, etc. They can even prevent you from using basic public services if your state-assigned social credit score is too low. Are they lying about this? Exaggerating it in some major way? If not, I see no reason they can't shut down big wet markets like the one in Wuhan. I'm left to assume they know that COVID-19 did not originate in such a place. If it had, there would be an "all hands on deck" campaign by the security services to shut these markets down. It would be accompanied by a massive propaganda effort to convince average Chinese that wild and exotic meat is unsafe.

MichaelZuo 4y ago
Did you reply to the wrong comment?
- chitowneats 4y ago
  No, I was casting doubt on this: "Controlling the illegal wildlife trade would require a huge government commitment which doesn't seem like a viable option." Why isn't it viable if it would prevent a pandemic? They already implement many other authoritarian policies (supposedly successfully) that are meant to curb far less dangerous outcomes.
Supermancho 4y ago
> If it had, there would be an "all hands on deck" campaign by the security services to shut these markets down. You're making a lot of rational deductions from assumptions of rational behavior without taking into consideration the backpressure (or negative consequences) that rational behavior will cause. eg If you start an exotic meat campaign, that's an implicit admission that it's a source (if not THE source) and you'll lose your position/head over suggesting it. Even if you could get some momentum, wherever you focus that campaign becomes the defacto ground zero. etc etc etc.
- chitowneats 4y ago
  > eg If you start an exotic meat campaign, that's an implicit admission that it's a source (if not THE source) and you'll lose your position/head over suggesting it Isn't it the official position of Xi Jinping, and the broader CCP he controls, that it was from the Wuhan wet market? I fail to understand why this is not a target for reform in China. "One bad apple", I guess. Plausible, but not believable, from my perspective.

yunwal 4y ago

> gain of function research

MichaelZuo 4y ago
The parent comment addressed that if you read it carefully.
- haswell 4y ago
  The parent comment asserted that it should be banned regardless, but arguably if such research was discovered to be the cause, it would be banned far more swiftly.
  - MichaelZuo 4y ago
    I'm not quite sure if that was their meaning, since banning amateur GoF research in practice is impossible. Nor would any major country allow external inspectors into such highly classified areas. So there's no way of independently verifying claims of 'banning' in any case.

ratg13 4y ago

If we know it came out of a lab, there would be a stronger call for internationalized safety precautions. As it stands now, BSL3/BSL4 are totally arbitrary depending on what country you are in.