8 ms·

I love bans like this that are 17 years out. It allows a politician to act like they are making a stand and doing something decisive when in reality they know t

I love bans like this that are 17 years out. It allows a politician to act like they are making a stand and doing something decisive when in reality they know they'll be long gone before having to actually ever have to deal with any of the consequences or actually implementing it.

estomagordo 4y ago
My man, this is 12 years away. Also, I don't think much of the implementation rests on the politicians?
2OEH8eoCRo0 4y ago
I'm in the US but if the US govt passed a ban on gas vehicles effective today, I'd be extremely upset. I love my car.
- esistgut 4y ago
  It's not a ban on gas vehicles, it's a ban on new sales of gas vehicles. Your car would be perfectly fine.
  - petodo 4y ago
    Until it breaks/crash and the repair won't be economical.
    - pwinnski 4y ago
      There are many cars on the road today that are 15 to 20 years old. There are some cars on the road older than that. Things do get more complicated with recent cars, which have more specialized computing, but you'll be able to burn repurposed dinosaurs for a very long time, regardless of restrictions on new sales.
- bombcar 4y ago
  Good news, everyone! Almost every time a technology is banned, the old grandfathered in examples of that technology become higher value! You're car you love will become worth a bit more, as people will be incentivized to keep it running.
- zirgs 4y ago
  That ban is for new cars only. Existing gas cars won't go away any time soon.
- Loughla 4y ago
  The only reason I would be upset, is that it appears to me that new EV's come loaded with software that I don't much care for. It appears that they are MUCH easier to track than a traditional ice vehicle. Or am I incorrect?
  - dashundchen 4y ago
    That's not inherent to EVs, that's just modern cars in general. Even 15 years ago, base trim ICE sedans from GM were coming with cell connected OnStar. It's inevitable that as the price came down other manufacturers would implement similar services. "Tech" in a vehicle sells, and connected services like app based locks and remote starts are an easy subscription sell.
  - pwinnski 4y ago
    Not all EVs are Teslas, and as sibling comments say, even current ICE vehicle seem to be loaded with connectivity options.
- cassepipe 4y ago
  And I'd love that you would stop emitting CO2 because you can't go anywhere without a one ton metal case so we are still able to grow food in twenty years from now.
  - TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
    You can make it broader and start getting rid of anyone who is emitting too much CO2: - Got cancer, which needs expensive treatment? Yep, that's a lot of CO2, go bite dust from below. - Are you handicapped and need others to take care of you? Well time for traditions of ancient Sparta to return. - Elderly people doing nothing, but emitting CO2. The moment people leave productive age, they should be facing wall.
    - Timon3 4y ago
      Are you not willing to live your life without your ICE car? Or why did you just make the jump from "let's ban technologies which produce too much CO2" to "let's kill unproductives"?
      - TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
        Slippery slope. Today it is cars, tomorrow it is meat, next month it is unproductives.
        Timon3 4y ago
        You act as if ICE vehicles bring no problems. If we keep relying on ICE vehicles, we literally kill people. We do not do that by switching to EVs. How does your slippery slope make sense when looking at the actual harm done? The worst part is: you're literally admitting that you're not arguing against the idea itself, you're arguing against what you think they want to do next. It's impossible to make progress if the ideas themselves cannot be discussed.
        TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
mytailorisrich 4y ago
It's 12 years out and this is a short time for the magnitude of the change. The UK has enacted a similar ban that should come into effect 5 years earlier, in 2030, so in 7 years and at the moment my best guess is that this is going to be a bloodbath (and second hand petrol cars are going to become even more valuable) if it is not postponed. It requires gigantic investments and adaptation that are not happening, or are happening very, very slowly.
- djaychela 4y ago
  Are you in the UK? That's not my take on what's happening - I've seen a big uptick in electric cars and charging infra in the last year or so. I've seen plenty of graphs that look like the UK would be mostly done with the transition to EVs for this segment by 2030 even if the ban wasn't coming into force - looks like a traditional sigmoid curve to me.
  - mytailorisrich 4y ago
    Yes, I am in the UK. The number of charging points is not keeping up with the planned schedule and number of new EVs on the road. The issue of people who cannot charge at home is not being tackled. Perhaps the most important issue: The grid is not being upgraded and electricity production is not keeping up (matter made even worse by the push to also get rid of gas boilers in homes). EVs are also still unaffordable to most, which is perhaps a blessing considering the above: Buying an EV is the 'easy' part. Edit: Grid is at capacity. There are many articles on that online from growing problems to connect new electricity sources to even potential restrictions on new homes [1]. Electricity production is not increasing. I believe peak production was reached in 2005 and since then nuclear plants have been decommissioned and renewables have not filled the gap. So solve both issues is a big task to say the least. And then there's still the lack of charging points. [1] https://www.ft.com/content/519f701f-6a05-4cf4-bc46-22cf10c7c2c0 https://www.ft.com/content/519f701f-6a05-4cf4-bc46-22cf10c7c...
    - ClumsyPilot 4y ago
      > The grid is not being upgraded and electricity production is not keeping up. Why do you believe this is the case? I cannot see any evidence of this probpem, in fact. Octopus energy for example is very happy about using Evs to help balance the grid and their 'virtual powerplant' Charging ooint, yes, they are an issue PS: this https://octopus.energy/press/octopus-energy-grows-uks-largest-virtual-power-plant/ https://octopus.energy/press/octopus-energy-grows-uks-larges...
hardware2win 4y ago
Uh, what is the other option? Ban it in next 4 years?
- im3w1l 4y ago
  Two other options: Taxes that slowly ramp up until fossil fuel cars become unaffordable. Quotas for how many fossil fuel cars are allowed to be sold (bid on the right to sell one, pass on cost to consumer).
  - TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
    So you will again damage your voting base without offering a way out (Expensive ICE or expensive BEV?) and give populists ability to raise up.
googlryas 4y ago
It also provides ample opportunity for a different regime to come in and extend or cancel the ban.
Havoc 4y ago
On the other hand it does have an impact in that it is functionally permanent. Reversing it would require an active push for something that is unpopular
standardUser 4y ago
What precise timeframe do you require to believe a policy is indeed a policy and not some elaborate ploy to trick and deceive you?
dashundchen 4y ago
Auto manufacturers are definitely investing like this is going to happen. I can't remember when a major manufacturer announced new ICE platforms - it's almost exclusively EV or shared EV/hybrid platforms being introduced. Look at the sheer investment in lithium, batteries and electronic suppliers. Manufacturers are going full tilt into lithium supply contracts, battery factory joint ventures, motor and electronic components - almost every week theres a new announcement. I wouldn't be surprised if it's hundreds of billions at this point between Europe, North America and Japan. That's not even counting China or India.

estomagordo 4y ago

My man, this is 12 years away. Also, I don't think much of the implementation rests on the politicians?

2OEH8eoCRo0 4y ago

I'm in the US but if the US govt passed a ban on gas vehicles effective today, I'd be extremely upset. I love my car.

esistgut 4y ago
It's not a ban on gas vehicles, it's a ban on new sales of gas vehicles. Your car would be perfectly fine.
- petodo 4y ago
  Until it breaks/crash and the repair won't be economical.
  - pwinnski 4y ago
    There are many cars on the road today that are 15 to 20 years old. There are some cars on the road older than that. Things do get more complicated with recent cars, which have more specialized computing, but you'll be able to burn repurposed dinosaurs for a very long time, regardless of restrictions on new sales.
bombcar 4y ago
Good news, everyone! Almost every time a technology is banned, the old grandfathered in examples of that technology become higher value! You're car you love will become worth a bit more, as people will be incentivized to keep it running.
zirgs 4y ago
That ban is for new cars only. Existing gas cars won't go away any time soon.
Loughla 4y ago
The only reason I would be upset, is that it appears to me that new EV's come loaded with software that I don't much care for. It appears that they are MUCH easier to track than a traditional ice vehicle. Or am I incorrect?
- dashundchen 4y ago
  That's not inherent to EVs, that's just modern cars in general. Even 15 years ago, base trim ICE sedans from GM were coming with cell connected OnStar. It's inevitable that as the price came down other manufacturers would implement similar services. "Tech" in a vehicle sells, and connected services like app based locks and remote starts are an easy subscription sell.
- pwinnski 4y ago
  Not all EVs are Teslas, and as sibling comments say, even current ICE vehicle seem to be loaded with connectivity options.
cassepipe 4y ago
And I'd love that you would stop emitting CO2 because you can't go anywhere without a one ton metal case so we are still able to grow food in twenty years from now.
- TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
  You can make it broader and start getting rid of anyone who is emitting too much CO2: - Got cancer, which needs expensive treatment? Yep, that's a lot of CO2, go bite dust from below. - Are you handicapped and need others to take care of you? Well time for traditions of ancient Sparta to return. - Elderly people doing nothing, but emitting CO2. The moment people leave productive age, they should be facing wall.
  - Timon3 4y ago
    Are you not willing to live your life without your ICE car? Or why did you just make the jump from "let's ban technologies which produce too much CO2" to "let's kill unproductives"?
    - TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
      Slippery slope. Today it is cars, tomorrow it is meat, next month it is unproductives.
      - Timon3 4y ago
        You act as if ICE vehicles bring no problems. If we keep relying on ICE vehicles, we literally kill people. We do not do that by switching to EVs. How does your slippery slope make sense when looking at the actual harm done? The worst part is: you're literally admitting that you're not arguing against the idea itself, you're arguing against what you think they want to do next. It's impossible to make progress if the ideas themselves cannot be discussed.
        TheLoafOfBread 4y ago

mytailorisrich 4y ago

It's 12 years out and this is a short time for the magnitude of the change. The UK has enacted a similar ban that should come into effect 5 years earlier, in 2030, so in 7 years and at the moment my best guess is that this is going to be a bloodbath (and second hand petrol cars are going to become even more valuable) if it is not postponed. It requires gigantic investments and adaptation that are not happening, or are happening very, very slowly.

djaychela 4y ago
Are you in the UK? That's not my take on what's happening - I've seen a big uptick in electric cars and charging infra in the last year or so. I've seen plenty of graphs that look like the UK would be mostly done with the transition to EVs for this segment by 2030 even if the ban wasn't coming into force - looks like a traditional sigmoid curve to me.
- mytailorisrich 4y ago
  Yes, I am in the UK. The number of charging points is not keeping up with the planned schedule and number of new EVs on the road. The issue of people who cannot charge at home is not being tackled. Perhaps the most important issue: The grid is not being upgraded and electricity production is not keeping up (matter made even worse by the push to also get rid of gas boilers in homes). EVs are also still unaffordable to most, which is perhaps a blessing considering the above: Buying an EV is the 'easy' part. Edit: Grid is at capacity. There are many articles on that online from growing problems to connect new electricity sources to even potential restrictions on new homes [1]. Electricity production is not increasing. I believe peak production was reached in 2005 and since then nuclear plants have been decommissioned and renewables have not filled the gap. So solve both issues is a big task to say the least. And then there's still the lack of charging points. [1] https://www.ft.com/content/519f701f-6a05-4cf4-bc46-22cf10c7c2c0 https://www.ft.com/content/519f701f-6a05-4cf4-bc46-22cf10c7c...
  - ClumsyPilot 4y ago
    > The grid is not being upgraded and electricity production is not keeping up. Why do you believe this is the case? I cannot see any evidence of this probpem, in fact. Octopus energy for example is very happy about using Evs to help balance the grid and their 'virtual powerplant' Charging ooint, yes, they are an issue PS: this https://octopus.energy/press/octopus-energy-grows-uks-largest-virtual-power-plant/ https://octopus.energy/press/octopus-energy-grows-uks-larges...

hardware2win 4y ago

Uh, what is the other option? Ban it in next 4 years?

im3w1l 4y ago
Two other options: Taxes that slowly ramp up until fossil fuel cars become unaffordable. Quotas for how many fossil fuel cars are allowed to be sold (bid on the right to sell one, pass on cost to consumer).
- TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
  So you will again damage your voting base without offering a way out (Expensive ICE or expensive BEV?) and give populists ability to raise up.

googlryas 4y ago

It also provides ample opportunity for a different regime to come in and extend or cancel the ban.

Havoc 4y ago

On the other hand it does have an impact in that it is functionally permanent. Reversing it would require an active push for something that is unpopular

standardUser 4y ago

What precise timeframe do you require to believe a policy is indeed a policy and not some elaborate ploy to trick and deceive you?

dashundchen 4y ago

Auto manufacturers are definitely investing like this is going to happen. I can't remember when a major manufacturer announced new ICE platforms - it's almost exclusively EV or shared EV/hybrid platforms being introduced. Look at the sheer investment in lithium, batteries and electronic suppliers. Manufacturers are going full tilt into lithium supply contracts, battery factory joint ventures, motor and electronic components - almost every week theres a new announcement. I wouldn't be surprised if it's hundreds of billions at this point between Europe, North America and Japan. That's not even counting China or India.