10 ms·

The AI Bubble of 2023

60 points by yarapavan 4y ago

EGreg 4y ago
But HN will love it a lot more than Blockchain. Won’t downvote every mention of AI :)
- alach11 4y ago
  Yes, AI is getting a lot of hype right now. No, this is nothing like blockchain. For something to be overhyped, it must have a hype level disproportionate to its value. Deep learning is generating a huge amount of real value and is solving real problems. When we were getting Superbowl ads for crypto, the value proposition wasn't there.
  - grogenaut 4y ago
    I didn't watch the superb owl... did we get AI ads this time?
    - rom-antics 4y ago
      I didn't watch the whole thing, but I remember one NFT ad and zero AI ads
    - TigeriusKirk 4y ago
      None, but it's a little too early for them. Next year's Super Bowl could be peak AI ad.
- HideousKojima 4y ago
  Because it can actually generate some interesting and/or useful content, unlike 99% of Blockchain proposals that amount to "a database, but worse" in the best case and "fraud, but obscured by technobabble" in the worst case.
  - EGreg 4y ago
    When the barrier was lowered, 99% of stuff in the Web 1.0 space was bullshit (remember <blink> and <marquee> tags?), and Web 2.0 was bullshit also (PHP developers making lots of crappy insecure stuff)... the 94th social network for cats and toasters, where they vacuum all your data and sell ads, or charge you hundreds of dollars for a feature that consists of changing one variable somewhere. Sometimes it was fraud, other times it was just money-losing economics ("traction") where VCs would prop it up and then hoped to dump the stock on an eager public in an IPO before making a dollar in profit (SoftBank took this to the extreme). Other times it just led to monopolies that sucked up everyone's data, engaged in surveillance capitalism, distracted them at dinner and made everyone have the attention of a goldfish. Oh yeah and made them depressed and insecure, especially teenagers. I'm not sure that's much better than Web3.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
beoberha 4y ago
At least with the crypto bubble, VCs could easily drop their bags on the general public. Things are going to be interesting when all these GPT wrappers being billed as “AI companies” start to centralize (how many AI copy writers do we really need?). It’s going to be a race to the bottom and the real winners here are going to be GPU sellers.
- smoldesu 4y ago
  To that end, this weekend I wrote a GPT-Neo-1.3b based Discord bot, and ran it on an Oracle "Always Free" instance. It costs me nothing, and I'm able to play with a surprisingly large/competent AI model. As the technology progresses and models are optimized/shrunk, I'm not sure if these "AI companies" will ever stand a chance. Even cheap Android smartphones can run the smallest GPT-Neo model, eventually the need for the SAAS wrappers for the technology will be cannibalized.
- WalterSear 4y ago
  You are assuming that copy writing, or even text generation is all that GPT-like AI is good for. These tasks just the scratch the surface of the technology's >existing< abilities. There are tranformers already capable of operating pretty much any desktop GUI.
  - beoberha 4y ago
    No I just didn’t mention it. Mostly because I see companies like Google and Microsoft rolling anything remotely useful for businesses into their offerings.
makotech221 4y ago
Talking to AI chat bots is the equivalent of talking to a parrot. I can't wait for the next market crash to wipe these ai and bitcoin companies off the face of the earth. Such a gigantic waste of human effort ( and carbon budget, in the case of bitcoin)
- Yiin 4y ago
  Differently from crypto currencies, AI is actually solving real problems.
- valine 4y ago
  A parrot can’t play 20 questions, emulate theory of mind, or implement merge sort with pirate themed variable names.
  - gowld 4y ago
    > A parrot can’t play 20 questions, Not, but a tree can. > emulate theory of mind, Neither can Chat GPT. "Failing a Theory of Mind at the same level a 7 year old does" is no more Theory of Mind than being really good at chess is. > or implement merge sort with pirate themed variable names. True.
    - thewrongthinker 4y ago
      [dead]
    - valine 4y ago
      A tree can only play 20 questions if it’s asking the questions. ChatGPT can go the other way.
  - makotech221 4y ago
    [dead]
- monkeynotes 4y ago
  No, no it isn't. I've already used ChatGPT to help me with dozens of management tasks. I got it to help me write a presentation. I have it help me curate 1:1 conversations that are not boring, with my team members context and levels. It can write a song with melody, chords, lyrics, all novel and creative. And remember this is just ~6 months into ChatGPT. BitCoin had no real use-cases beyond betting and pump and dump and niche trading that the general public could not get in on. ChatGPT is being used creatively today by millions. It does your homework. How is this classed as a bubble or hype. How can you possibly see it as a waste of effort or equivalent to talking to a parrot??
dpflan 4y ago
Is this wild speculation the material for creating bubbles? FTA: "Walmsley adds that he’s heard venture-capital investors speculate that the market for generative AI applications could be as large as $1 trillion. He notes that the world has over one billion knowledge workers; OpenAI charges $42 a month for the professional version of ChatGPT. If you assume every one of those people gets two accounts—one general, and one specialized—you get close $1 trillion."
- gowld 4y ago
  It's OK speculation, but the economics is bad. If everyone is willing to pay for ChatGPT, the price is clearly far too low. The optimal price for a product is almost never the price where the audience is 100% saturated.
  - rtkwe 4y ago
    That's even worse because that's saying the trillion dollar industry were every knowledge worker pays $84 a month for ChatGPT accounts is the bottom end of the range.
    - anonyfox 4y ago
      I think the 168$ per knowledge worker will be paid by the companies instead, with some free excepmtions like university/school programms to get the kids hooked into the tech
      - cleerline 4y ago
        how about one knowledge worker charging a $trillion and then going home with it?
        anonyfox 4y ago
        Well, if I owe my bank 1 million dollars, I have a problem. If I owe the bank 1 billion dollars, the bank has a problem.
monkeynotes 4y ago
Here's my killer app theory for stuff like GPT, just one example... MS Teams gets the GPT treatment. It watches all your chats, email, calendars, code, wiki, meetings, spreadsheets, documents. Where is Slack now? If you want to know absolutely anything from engineering domain knowledge to product strategy through to aiding you in sales, Slack has no answer. Ask Teams to splat you a database table, refine an SQL statement, brief you on a meeting, remind me of who a particular customer is and what sort of sales pitch would appeal to them. I mean, not seeing the potential in GPT is really being intentionally blind to world changing technology. Just the fact that it can scan your whole codebase, find potential security holes, suggest performance blind-spots and indeed write code, or at least suggest code, this alone is such a big change it's hard to get your head around the opportunity. All of that in a chat window or IDE. It's revolutionary.
- RandomLensman 4y ago
  The real application is increasing bureaucracy massively. Nothing that doesn't get an opinion filed for or some "memo" attached to it. No request for comment ever unanswered, nothing that doesn't deserve some written specs or an risk assessment. No process not documented in lengthy prose etc.
  - monkeynotes 4y ago
    Pretty cynical opinion.
    - RandomLensman 4y ago
      Not even meant to be very cynical. Looking at big organizations, the desire to increase control and oversight a lot will be pretty strong. A lot of technology is already devoted to that end anyway. There will be other, interesting use cases for sure, but control, compliance, documentation, etc. will be big.
      - monkeynotes 4y ago
        Not everything is a big org that spends its time and money chasing compliance for no reason. It's cynical because you are viewing everything through one personal perspective that is loosely grounded in reality, and choosing to not see the rest of the world, which only serves to validate your cynical mindset.
rvz 4y ago
> Just as we saw companies adding the suffix “dot com” to their names in the 90’s and announcing “blockchain” initiatives in 2017, so too will we now see an endless parade of AI announcements in 2023. Correct. Everyone and their cats are now an AI company again. Hyping and parading about a hallucinating chatbot is going to change the world and take over search engines and kill Google. It won't. It needs to do more than that to even challenge Google. We are already looking at its limitations and after looking at both Bing AI, ChatGPT and Google Bard, they all fall short at reliability and it is all fundamentally rooted to the black-box nature of neural networks. The hype and mania will go on just as long as how Clubhouse was hyped on for in 2020 and like what happened to GPT-3 after that AI hype cycle died.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
neom 4y ago
Tom Scotts video today re where we are on the AI's impact to society curve was interesting : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPhJbKBuNnA&ab_channel=TomScott https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPhJbKBuNnA&ab_channel=TomSc... I think he's probably right that we're very early on the adoption curve. (even though I always get downvote and call a dumbass when I mention it here, I still think progress in quantum computing (predictive) and AI go hand in hand towards AGI.)
- adamsmith143 4y ago
  >(even though I always get downvote and call a dumbass when I mention it here, I still think progress in quantum computing (predictive) and AI go hand in hand towards AGI.) You get downvoted because it's not a coherent position. It's like saying I'm really bullish on renewable energy powered by web3 blockchains. It's just a mishmash of buzzwords. The reality is Quantum Computing has limited use cases in general computing and AI isn't really one of them. I don't think there's even an argument that e.g. a quantum chip offers any real advantage over a TPU or even GPU for AI tasks.
  - kypro 4y ago
    I've heard some people cite quantum physics to explain free will and consciousness, although these arguments always seemed completely unsupported and a form of "god of the gaps" reasoning to me. But being charitable I suppose if you subscribe to the idea that creativity and consciousness arise from quantum behaviours then perhaps it makes sense. It would suggest we likely have the architecture of an AGI completely wrong currently though, so I'm not sure how this really relates to AIs like ChatGPT.
    - adamsmith143 4y ago
      It's not relevant at all and quantum woowoo for consciousness is just that. There don't seem to be any structures small enough in the brain to allow for quantum effects and the temperature in the brain is so high that decoherence ensures that there are likely no quantum effects present at all.
exig0211 4y ago
So, what is the "best" ETF to invest in the new tulip mania craze. All "AI" ETF that i see are filled with generic IT companies... Anyone found a good one yet ?
- seizethecheese 4y ago
  Probably look up the hardware that is being used at Azure.
  - exig0211 4y ago
    so far my best bet is Nvidia (As a proxy to the AI vertical)
- pavlov 4y ago
  These days it's difficult and expensive for a company to go public. So when it's early enough that you could make a good return just going long on this kind of bubble blowing up, there aren't yet companies in the public markets to invest into. So what happens is that awful companies that happen to be already public will try to reinvent themselves as part of the trend. Some past examples: - Fish-oil company Zapata happened to own the domain zap.com, so in 1999 they became an Internet portal: https://www.forbes.com/1999/04/13/mu11.html?sh=5d90ad3b65d8 https://www.forbes.com/1999/04/13/mu11.html?sh=5d90ad3b65d8 - In 2017 a beverage company called Long Island Iced Tea changed its name to Long Blockchain Corp: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/21/long-island-iced-tea-micro-cap-adds-blockchain-to-name-and-stock-soars.html https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/21/long-island-iced-tea-micro-c... With mostly companies of this quality to pick from, anybody who built an Internet portfolio in 1999 or a blockchain portfolio in 2017 probably lost 99% of their money.
rom-antics 4y ago
Bubble of... 2023? This has been going on for a while. Since at least 5 years founders have known the way to get funding is to claim your product has "machine learning" or "artificial intelligence"
- gowld 4y ago
  The AI Bubble of 2023 is the Generative AI Bubble of 2023
- Tepix 4y ago
  But the pure AI companies like OpenAI and Tenstorrent haven't gone public yet.
- kilgnad 4y ago
  chatGPT is more then a bubble. It's a societal inflection point. The reaction to it is appropriate. However as usual people will get too excited and the hype will outpace the actuality of the technology. There will be a slight "bubble" but this isn't anything like the "housing bubble". Prior to chatGPT though, ai could be characterized as something along the lines of a housing bubble. I would say almost all lines of research in ai save llms are over hyped bubbles. Not saying these lines of research are useless or inconsequential. Far from it. Ai outside of llms is amazing. But these Ais are definitely inside huge bubbles.
  - noobermin 4y ago
    That's good because the OP didn't compare it to the housing bubble at all. He just said "bubble."
    - kilgnad 4y ago
      Am I not allowed to make an independent comparison unless the OP made the same comparison?
typest 4y ago
The other day, I was trying to build a web scraper, but I kept getting an error that the data wasn't utf-8 encoded. I gave chatgpt the error along with the first 10 bytes (e.g. b'\x1f\x8b\x08\x00\x00\x00\x00\x00\x00\x03') and it informed me that this was a gzip-encoded binary file, and then it wrote me working code to decompress the file. This is extremely valuable and saved me hours/was the difference between me stopping or not. There will surely be people that overhype this, but there is real value as well.
- rom-antics 4y ago
  To be fair, you could google "1f 8b" or even that entire hex string and Google will tell you the same thing.
  - riku_iki 4y ago
    the difference is that with google you can trace the source of the statement, and with chatgtp they only option is to believe.
    - thefilmore 4y ago
      And you have comments underneath the StackOverflow answer by people who've tested it.
      - goatlover 4y ago
        Which can be extremely useful, and people aren't always going to know to prompt an LLM to give them the info in those comments.
    - goatlover 4y ago
      Also that google is able to give me live results whereas an LLM is trained on data from some point in the past. And just maybe I want to actually go to a site I'm searching for and not just wanting a summary or conversation about the topic. I just don't see how an LLM is going to replace search unless it can do all the other useful things search does right now. Augment search, yes. Replace it with the current chatGPT interface? No way.
somewhereoutth 4y ago
I believe that the crucial test of real AI will be if a group of such AIs invent their own language to allow them to cooperate - much like intelligent animal species such as ourselves. The richness of the language indicates the depth of intelligence. Any such language would necessarily be limited to their 'domain of existence' - you can't invent words for colours if your world has no light. Thus we'd need to give the AIs a full domain of existence for a full AI. They would need eyes (and ears?) and locomotion so they have a real world to reason about and talk about to each other (and us?) The point being that emergent language is the only general way to gauge intelligence (above and beyond the somewhat anachronistic Turing test). I also conjecture that human language (in fact any human language) is complete in the sense that any and everything can be described within it (e.g. you could explain General Relativity to any human from any time, using their own language, as the basic concepts are already present, you just build on them - whereas this might not be possible with bird calls). Furthermore, if our language is indeed complete, then we could suggest that any intelligent alien species we might encounter will also have at best a similarly complete language - and thus cannot be meaningfully more intelligent than us, as there is no 'higher' language, no concepts inaccessible to us.
paulpauper 4y ago
Where was this guy warning of a crypto bubble in 2020-2021? Instead he was hyping crypto. If this is any indication, AI will probably continue to do well. I don't think GPT be as big as Google, but it's not going to pop either as he is expecting.
Ncarpentieri4 4y ago
After investing and building through the crypto bull market and now experiencing this bear market, the sentiment from more revered tech figures on AI's incoming prowess and impact is definitely higher-signal than those who preached the crypto gospel for the last few years. Think that's worth something in forming a view on this. I still think there will be a bubble, but it will be different.
oliwarner 4y ago
Bubbles are hype awaiting delivery but what we're seeing is delivery before expectation; before that hype. Don't get me wrong, there definitely is excitement and hype, but it's all off the back of what's available today. There is no bubble to pop. If ChatGPT and diffusion models are the upper limit of the tech, it can still be applied today to disrupt whole industries. That's not too say there won't be waves of grifters —some of them AI— fluffing products that never materialise or under-deliver, but I think our imagination is going to lag behind the tech, not the other way around.

60 points by yarapavan 4y ago

EGreg 4y ago

But HN will love it a lot more than Blockchain. Won’t downvote every mention of AI :)

alach11 4y ago
Yes, AI is getting a lot of hype right now. No, this is nothing like blockchain. For something to be overhyped, it must have a hype level disproportionate to its value. Deep learning is generating a huge amount of real value and is solving real problems. When we were getting Superbowl ads for crypto, the value proposition wasn't there.
- grogenaut 4y ago
  I didn't watch the superb owl... did we get AI ads this time?
  - rom-antics 4y ago
    I didn't watch the whole thing, but I remember one NFT ad and zero AI ads
  - TigeriusKirk 4y ago
    None, but it's a little too early for them. Next year's Super Bowl could be peak AI ad.
HideousKojima 4y ago
Because it can actually generate some interesting and/or useful content, unlike 99% of Blockchain proposals that amount to "a database, but worse" in the best case and "fraud, but obscured by technobabble" in the worst case.
- EGreg 4y ago
  When the barrier was lowered, 99% of stuff in the Web 1.0 space was bullshit (remember <blink> and <marquee> tags?), and Web 2.0 was bullshit also (PHP developers making lots of crappy insecure stuff)... the 94th social network for cats and toasters, where they vacuum all your data and sell ads, or charge you hundreds of dollars for a feature that consists of changing one variable somewhere. Sometimes it was fraud, other times it was just money-losing economics ("traction") where VCs would prop it up and then hoped to dump the stock on an eager public in an IPO before making a dollar in profit (SoftBank took this to the extreme). Other times it just led to monopolies that sucked up everyone's data, engaged in surveillance capitalism, distracted them at dinner and made everyone have the attention of a goldfish. Oh yeah and made them depressed and insecure, especially teenagers. I'm not sure that's much better than Web3.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

beoberha 4y ago

At least with the crypto bubble, VCs could easily drop their bags on the general public. Things are going to be interesting when all these GPT wrappers being billed as “AI companies” start to centralize (how many AI copy writers do we really need?). It’s going to be a race to the bottom and the real winners here are going to be GPU sellers.

smoldesu 4y ago
To that end, this weekend I wrote a GPT-Neo-1.3b based Discord bot, and ran it on an Oracle "Always Free" instance. It costs me nothing, and I'm able to play with a surprisingly large/competent AI model. As the technology progresses and models are optimized/shrunk, I'm not sure if these "AI companies" will ever stand a chance. Even cheap Android smartphones can run the smallest GPT-Neo model, eventually the need for the SAAS wrappers for the technology will be cannibalized.
WalterSear 4y ago
You are assuming that copy writing, or even text generation is all that GPT-like AI is good for. These tasks just the scratch the surface of the technology's >existing< abilities. There are tranformers already capable of operating pretty much any desktop GUI.
- beoberha 4y ago
  No I just didn’t mention it. Mostly because I see companies like Google and Microsoft rolling anything remotely useful for businesses into their offerings.

makotech221 4y ago

Talking to AI chat bots is the equivalent of talking to a parrot. I can't wait for the next market crash to wipe these ai and bitcoin companies off the face of the earth. Such a gigantic waste of human effort ( and carbon budget, in the case of bitcoin)

Yiin 4y ago
Differently from crypto currencies, AI is actually solving real problems.
valine 4y ago
A parrot can’t play 20 questions, emulate theory of mind, or implement merge sort with pirate themed variable names.
- gowld 4y ago
  > A parrot can’t play 20 questions, Not, but a tree can. > emulate theory of mind, Neither can Chat GPT. "Failing a Theory of Mind at the same level a 7 year old does" is no more Theory of Mind than being really good at chess is. > or implement merge sort with pirate themed variable names. True.
  - thewrongthinker 4y ago
    [dead]
  - valine 4y ago
    A tree can only play 20 questions if it’s asking the questions. ChatGPT can go the other way.
- makotech221 4y ago
  [dead]
monkeynotes 4y ago
No, no it isn't. I've already used ChatGPT to help me with dozens of management tasks. I got it to help me write a presentation. I have it help me curate 1:1 conversations that are not boring, with my team members context and levels. It can write a song with melody, chords, lyrics, all novel and creative. And remember this is just ~6 months into ChatGPT. BitCoin had no real use-cases beyond betting and pump and dump and niche trading that the general public could not get in on. ChatGPT is being used creatively today by millions. It does your homework. How is this classed as a bubble or hype. How can you possibly see it as a waste of effort or equivalent to talking to a parrot??

dpflan 4y ago

Is this wild speculation the material for creating bubbles? FTA: "Walmsley adds that he’s heard venture-capital investors speculate that the market for generative AI applications could be as large as $1 trillion. He notes that the world has over one billion knowledge workers; OpenAI charges $42 a month for the professional version of ChatGPT. If you assume every one of those people gets two accounts—one general, and one specialized—you get close $1 trillion."

gowld 4y ago
It's OK speculation, but the economics is bad. If everyone is willing to pay for ChatGPT, the price is clearly far too low. The optimal price for a product is almost never the price where the audience is 100% saturated.
- rtkwe 4y ago
  That's even worse because that's saying the trillion dollar industry were every knowledge worker pays $84 a month for ChatGPT accounts is the bottom end of the range.
  - anonyfox 4y ago
    I think the 168$ per knowledge worker will be paid by the companies instead, with some free excepmtions like university/school programms to get the kids hooked into the tech
    - cleerline 4y ago
      how about one knowledge worker charging a $trillion and then going home with it?
      - anonyfox 4y ago
        Well, if I owe my bank 1 million dollars, I have a problem. If I owe the bank 1 billion dollars, the bank has a problem.

monkeynotes 4y ago

Here's my killer app theory for stuff like GPT, just one example... MS Teams gets the GPT treatment. It watches all your chats, email, calendars, code, wiki, meetings, spreadsheets, documents. Where is Slack now? If you want to know absolutely anything from engineering domain knowledge to product strategy through to aiding you in sales, Slack has no answer. Ask Teams to splat you a database table, refine an SQL statement, brief you on a meeting, remind me of who a particular customer is and what sort of sales pitch would appeal to them. I mean, not seeing the potential in GPT is really being intentionally blind to world changing technology. Just the fact that it can scan your whole codebase, find potential security holes, suggest performance blind-spots and indeed write code, or at least suggest code, this alone is such a big change it's hard to get your head around the opportunity. All of that in a chat window or IDE. It's revolutionary.

RandomLensman 4y ago
The real application is increasing bureaucracy massively. Nothing that doesn't get an opinion filed for or some "memo" attached to it. No request for comment ever unanswered, nothing that doesn't deserve some written specs or an risk assessment. No process not documented in lengthy prose etc.
- monkeynotes 4y ago
  Pretty cynical opinion.
  - RandomLensman 4y ago
    Not even meant to be very cynical. Looking at big organizations, the desire to increase control and oversight a lot will be pretty strong. A lot of technology is already devoted to that end anyway. There will be other, interesting use cases for sure, but control, compliance, documentation, etc. will be big.
    - monkeynotes 4y ago
      Not everything is a big org that spends its time and money chasing compliance for no reason. It's cynical because you are viewing everything through one personal perspective that is loosely grounded in reality, and choosing to not see the rest of the world, which only serves to validate your cynical mindset.

rvz 4y ago

> Just as we saw companies adding the suffix “dot com” to their names in the 90’s and announcing “blockchain” initiatives in 2017, so too will we now see an endless parade of AI announcements in 2023. Correct. Everyone and their cats are now an AI company again. Hyping and parading about a hallucinating chatbot is going to change the world and take over search engines and kill Google. It won't. It needs to do more than that to even challenge Google. We are already looking at its limitations and after looking at both Bing AI, ChatGPT and Google Bard, they all fall short at reliability and it is all fundamentally rooted to the black-box nature of neural networks. The hype and mania will go on just as long as how Clubhouse was hyped on for in 2020 and like what happened to GPT-3 after that AI hype cycle died.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

neom 4y ago

Tom Scotts video today re where we are on the AI's impact to society curve was interesting : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPhJbKBuNnA&ab_channel=TomScott https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPhJbKBuNnA&ab_channel=TomSc... I think he's probably right that we're very early on the adoption curve. (even though I always get downvote and call a dumbass when I mention it here, I still think progress in quantum computing (predictive) and AI go hand in hand towards AGI.)

adamsmith143 4y ago
>(even though I always get downvote and call a dumbass when I mention it here, I still think progress in quantum computing (predictive) and AI go hand in hand towards AGI.) You get downvoted because it's not a coherent position. It's like saying I'm really bullish on renewable energy powered by web3 blockchains. It's just a mishmash of buzzwords. The reality is Quantum Computing has limited use cases in general computing and AI isn't really one of them. I don't think there's even an argument that e.g. a quantum chip offers any real advantage over a TPU or even GPU for AI tasks.
- kypro 4y ago
  I've heard some people cite quantum physics to explain free will and consciousness, although these arguments always seemed completely unsupported and a form of "god of the gaps" reasoning to me. But being charitable I suppose if you subscribe to the idea that creativity and consciousness arise from quantum behaviours then perhaps it makes sense. It would suggest we likely have the architecture of an AGI completely wrong currently though, so I'm not sure how this really relates to AIs like ChatGPT.
  - adamsmith143 4y ago
    It's not relevant at all and quantum woowoo for consciousness is just that. There don't seem to be any structures small enough in the brain to allow for quantum effects and the temperature in the brain is so high that decoherence ensures that there are likely no quantum effects present at all.

exig0211 4y ago

So, what is the "best" ETF to invest in the new tulip mania craze. All "AI" ETF that i see are filled with generic IT companies... Anyone found a good one yet ?

seizethecheese 4y ago
Probably look up the hardware that is being used at Azure.
- exig0211 4y ago
  so far my best bet is Nvidia (As a proxy to the AI vertical)
pavlov 4y ago
These days it's difficult and expensive for a company to go public. So when it's early enough that you could make a good return just going long on this kind of bubble blowing up, there aren't yet companies in the public markets to invest into. So what happens is that awful companies that happen to be already public will try to reinvent themselves as part of the trend. Some past examples: - Fish-oil company Zapata happened to own the domain zap.com, so in 1999 they became an Internet portal: https://www.forbes.com/1999/04/13/mu11.html?sh=5d90ad3b65d8 https://www.forbes.com/1999/04/13/mu11.html?sh=5d90ad3b65d8 - In 2017 a beverage company called Long Island Iced Tea changed its name to Long Blockchain Corp: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/21/long-island-iced-tea-micro-cap-adds-blockchain-to-name-and-stock-soars.html https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/21/long-island-iced-tea-micro-c... With mostly companies of this quality to pick from, anybody who built an Internet portfolio in 1999 or a blockchain portfolio in 2017 probably lost 99% of their money.

rom-antics 4y ago

Bubble of... 2023? This has been going on for a while. Since at least 5 years founders have known the way to get funding is to claim your product has "machine learning" or "artificial intelligence"

gowld 4y ago
The AI Bubble of 2023 is the Generative AI Bubble of 2023
Tepix 4y ago
But the pure AI companies like OpenAI and Tenstorrent haven't gone public yet.
kilgnad 4y ago
chatGPT is more then a bubble. It's a societal inflection point. The reaction to it is appropriate. However as usual people will get too excited and the hype will outpace the actuality of the technology. There will be a slight "bubble" but this isn't anything like the "housing bubble". Prior to chatGPT though, ai could be characterized as something along the lines of a housing bubble. I would say almost all lines of research in ai save llms are over hyped bubbles. Not saying these lines of research are useless or inconsequential. Far from it. Ai outside of llms is amazing. But these Ais are definitely inside huge bubbles.
- noobermin 4y ago
  That's good because the OP didn't compare it to the housing bubble at all. He just said "bubble."
  - kilgnad 4y ago
    Am I not allowed to make an independent comparison unless the OP made the same comparison?

typest 4y ago

The other day, I was trying to build a web scraper, but I kept getting an error that the data wasn't utf-8 encoded. I gave chatgpt the error along with the first 10 bytes (e.g. b'\x1f\x8b\x08\x00\x00\x00\x00\x00\x00\x03') and it informed me that this was a gzip-encoded binary file, and then it wrote me working code to decompress the file. This is extremely valuable and saved me hours/was the difference between me stopping or not. There will surely be people that overhype this, but there is real value as well.

rom-antics 4y ago
To be fair, you could google "1f 8b" or even that entire hex string and Google will tell you the same thing.
- riku_iki 4y ago
  the difference is that with google you can trace the source of the statement, and with chatgtp they only option is to believe.
  - thefilmore 4y ago
    And you have comments underneath the StackOverflow answer by people who've tested it.
    - goatlover 4y ago
      Which can be extremely useful, and people aren't always going to know to prompt an LLM to give them the info in those comments.
  - goatlover 4y ago
    Also that google is able to give me live results whereas an LLM is trained on data from some point in the past. And just maybe I want to actually go to a site I'm searching for and not just wanting a summary or conversation about the topic. I just don't see how an LLM is going to replace search unless it can do all the other useful things search does right now. Augment search, yes. Replace it with the current chatGPT interface? No way.

somewhereoutth 4y ago

I believe that the crucial test of real AI will be if a group of such AIs invent their own language to allow them to cooperate - much like intelligent animal species such as ourselves. The richness of the language indicates the depth of intelligence. Any such language would necessarily be limited to their 'domain of existence' - you can't invent words for colours if your world has no light. Thus we'd need to give the AIs a full domain of existence for a full AI. They would need eyes (and ears?) and locomotion so they have a real world to reason about and talk about to each other (and us?) The point being that emergent language is the only general way to gauge intelligence (above and beyond the somewhat anachronistic Turing test). I also conjecture that human language (in fact any human language) is complete in the sense that any and everything can be described within it (e.g. you could explain General Relativity to any human from any time, using their own language, as the basic concepts are already present, you just build on them - whereas this might not be possible with bird calls). Furthermore, if our language is indeed complete, then we could suggest that any intelligent alien species we might encounter will also have at best a similarly complete language - and thus cannot be meaningfully more intelligent than us, as there is no 'higher' language, no concepts inaccessible to us.

paulpauper 4y ago

Where was this guy warning of a crypto bubble in 2020-2021? Instead he was hyping crypto. If this is any indication, AI will probably continue to do well. I don't think GPT be as big as Google, but it's not going to pop either as he is expecting.

Ncarpentieri4 4y ago

After investing and building through the crypto bull market and now experiencing this bear market, the sentiment from more revered tech figures on AI's incoming prowess and impact is definitely higher-signal than those who preached the crypto gospel for the last few years. Think that's worth something in forming a view on this. I still think there will be a bubble, but it will be different.

oliwarner 4y ago

Bubbles are hype awaiting delivery but what we're seeing is delivery before expectation; before that hype. Don't get me wrong, there definitely is excitement and hype, but it's all off the back of what's available today. There is no bubble to pop. If ChatGPT and diffusion models are the upper limit of the tech, it can still be applied today to disrupt whole industries. That's not too say there won't be waves of grifters —some of them AI— fluffing products that never materialise or under-deliver, but I think our imagination is going to lag behind the tech, not the other way around.