11 ms·

United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

149 points by pg_1234 4y ago

redwood 4y ago
Judo and two total wars with western powers won only after seemingly losing everything -- it's hard not to think that the dictator will eventually inflict far far more pain in the form of martial law on his own people than any of us can imagine in the hopes that that will allow them to find the spark to fall to such a base survival instinct as to bounce back. By no means do I believe that will happen, in fact I believe we must do anything in our power to ensure that does not happen, but I do believe there's been a lack of critical analysis of the way that dictator likely thinks based on a lens of history and his favorite sport. He likely genuinely believes they need to keep losing and losing much more badly than they are today before they can have a shot of turning the tide. It's definitely time to get out of there
- jb1991 4y ago
  > He likely genuinely believes they need to keep losing and losing much more badly than they are today before they can have a shot of turning the tide. I'm having some difficulty following your argument. You're saying Putin thinks Russia needs to keep losing the war so that eventually they can win it? I find that confusing.
  - californiadreem 4y ago
    "Judo (Japanese for “the gentle way”) emphasizes winning in combat by using your opponent's weight and strength as weapons against him, while preserving your own mental and physical energy."
    - esotericimpl 4y ago
      [dead]
    - ylk 4y ago
      Since jb1991 is being downvoted I want to clarify that this doesn’t somehow support the grandparent. Using your opponents strength as weapon means deflecting their attack and using the force to throw them on the ground/defeat them. Have a look at e.g. 5:58 https://youtu.be/-Qe_JKQjJTA https://youtu.be/-Qe_JKQjJTA It’s kata, so slow and meant for demonstration purposes.
  - redwood 4y ago
    I don't know if you've ever read War and Peace or looked into the Napoleonic Wars in Russia, and also looked at the parallels to the Eastern theater of World War II, that's what I'm referring to
- ylk 4y ago
  In Judo you don’t take a beating, magically absorb all the force and then release it all in a gigantic blow that sends the opponent flying towards the moon, shattering it on impact, like in an anime. The stuff you describe doesn’t have anything to do with the sport. It’s insane how people twist things to make them fit their ideas.
  - redwood 4y ago
    I mean it more metaphorically in the sense that when your opponent comes in with a lot of force, you can harness that into them thinking they've got it
docdeek 4y ago
Is this a big deal because it is the US? FWIW the Australian government has had this sort of warning out for their citizens in Russia for more than a month (at least since 11 January): "If you're in Russia, leave immediately using the limited commercial options available or private means if it's safe to do so. Review your personal security plans and carefully consider the safest means and route to depart.” [1] [1]: https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/destinations/europe/russia https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/destinations/europe/russia
- haswell 4y ago
  FTA, this is not the first time the US has warned citizens about this either, but renewing this warning in the wake of recent events does seem interesting.
  - csydas 4y ago
    I lived in Russia for 6 years prior to the invasion of Ukraine (2022 edition), and I can confirm that the US has frequently warned very heavily for basically all actions in Russia, even during peace times (before the first invasion of Ukraine even). I think even in 2015 when I went the first time, Russia was still on the 2nd level of warning despite overall decent relationships between the two countries at the time. These warnings have been persistent for the last 8 years and in my discussions with the US consulate when I was there, it's less about indicating anything in specific and more about the US protecting its own interests and being as clear as possible that they cannot assist on a lot of things right now due to very limited diplomatic presence. The message that I was told at the consulate during the first Ukraine invasion was "we're very limited on staff and influence; we cannot make you leave, but you need to understand that if you get in legal trouble, we likely cannot help you." (this was a bit after the Saint Petersburg US embassy was closed) While I don't doubt there is some concern about persons being taken for negotiation purposes, I think the major concern is just that the US is not in a position to assist for many foreign citizen services as the diplomatic tensions are far too high right now. Unless you already have good connections in Russia, at best you're stuck in a bad spot without help from the consulate, and at worst there is a chance you become a means of bargaining (though this has always been the case).
nicbou 4y ago
Summary: this is due to arbitrary arrests of US citizens, not an escalation of the conflict with Russia.
- SOLAR_FIELDS 4y ago
  Is it wrong to assume that the two are not wholly unrelated activities?
  - mannykannot 4y ago
    It is reasonable to consider whether both motives apply, but one should also note that the former alone is sufficient reason for this action (and also sufficient reason for individual US citizens to carefully consider whether they want to be in Russia or its puppet states.)
    - baybal2 4y ago
      [dead]
  - pg_1234 4y ago
    If the US were planning to take a more aggressive stance with Russia, the first move would be to get their citizens/potential hostages out of reach. Obviously, not everyone will leave, but now the administration can say "they were warned" if they get caught in the political crossfire later.
  - nicbou 4y ago
    When I saw the title, I feared a much scarier message: "sh*t's about to go down". This is much better.
- barrkel 4y ago
  Russia managed to free Viktor Bout in trade for Brittney Griner. It stands to reason then that more US citizens are a handy asset to have for trading.
  - 4y ago
pjc50 4y ago
Bit late for that now, isn't it? Anyone who didn't start making preparations to leave last year was excessively optimistic about how countries collapse.
- hooby 4y ago
  The article states that this is not the first time this warning has been issued. Last such issue was in September - and there have been more such warnings before that.
kypro 4y ago
Something that's been concerning me about all these UFOs being shot down is that perhaps it could be best explained by the start of something else building up... Realistically these UFO's aren't alien crafts but hostile spy drones. Perhaps the reason we haven't heard about these drones before could be that the US has never felt the need to act (the spying poses no real imminent threat), or maybe the hostile state sending the drones only now feels the need to spy on US military bases. But however you look at this either the US is suddenly much more concerned about someone spying on their military bases, or some state suddenly feels the need to spy on US military bases. We also know that NATO countries now seem to be willing to arm UA with weaponry not just capable of putting up a decent defence against Russian forces, but actually pushing them back into Russian territory. It seems the US and allies no longer just wants UA to hold their own against RU, but actually win the war. Imo if UA is able to push RU back they're likely to try to reclaim annexed territories back from RU. It seems likely the US and allies would understand this is a probable outcome. After all would NATO countries be sending tanks and such expensive weaponry if they thought UA had no chance? It seems likely they are betting on a UA victory and all that entails. Most experts agree the conflict in UA will pick up again in the spring. And in the event of a potential UA victory the use of tactical nuclear weapons from RU seem likely. If the US knows RU is likely a couple of months away from using nukes in UA then perhaps this would explain why they're suddenly so worried about these spy drones, or why there's been a sudden increase in them. Maybe I'm making too many assumptions here, but it just feels like there's lots of chess pieces moving in worrying ways right now. This request being yet another. Am I wrong to be concerned?
- barrkel 4y ago
  > And in the event of a potential UA victory the use of tactical nuclear weapons from RU seem likely The consensus military opinion I've read on this is that tactical nukes aren't very useful militarily; troops in the field are too dispersed. If there's a hardened target, then yes, otherwise not great. They then have to be weighed against the costs of crossing that Rubicon. > why they're suddenly so worried about these spy drones I think this is largely because of opposition screeching.
  - 4y ago
bigbacaloa 4y ago
This is cold war 101. Some of y'all just too young to remember.
- meghan_rain 4y ago
  [flagged]
- Broken_Hippo 4y ago
  Not really. This is just normal government. I have lived in Norway for... Officially around 9 years (was in the country, legally, some months before the official immigration date). I don't know how much you know about Norway, but in general, Norway is Safe. Safe in a way I didn't have in small town America, despite me living in a town of 180k or so people (college town, so it fluctuates a bit). I get warnings about protests and told how much I need to stay away. Generally, these warnings mean that the protests/demonstrations are not only in Oslo (around an hour flight or many hours driving) but also that they are by the embassy. The warnings, sent by email, are generally full of "oh noes, there is danger!" and plenty of messages about not protesting and not going near crowds that are. Only once in that time has there been any mention of violence that came - and that was someone trying to enter the Iranian embassy. This was very out of character for protests here. Which means, realistically, this is more general scaremongering by the US government. While I believe they (the government) have actual reason for the warnings (compared to protest warnings), every fiber of my being wants to say that they are being a bit over the top. Not because of cold war stuff, but because this seems like normal operating procedure for the government. I say this even as I would be looking to leave Russia right now regardless because of the warring and such.
  - bigbacaloa 4y ago
    Scaremongering by the us government is cold war 101. Like shooting down random .
cpursley 4y ago
I don’t buy the idea that Russia would conscript dual US-Russian citizens for one big reason: trust. For the same reason the US would avoid conscripting Russians. Also, we’ve been told on multiple occasions that Russia would declare martial law yet the borders are still open for military aged males.
- justinclift 4y ago
  Not sure where the idea of conscription is coming from for you. It's not mentioned anywhere in the article.
  - reisse 4y ago
    It is mentioned in original warning from the embassy.
  - dandanua 4y ago
    It's in the source https://ru.usembassy.gov/travel-advisory-russia-do-not-travel-february-12-2023/ https://ru.usembassy.gov/travel-advisory-russia-do-not-trave...
    - justinclift 4y ago
      Thanks, so it is. :)
Overtonwindow 4y ago
Why would United States citizens be in Russia to begin with? I would think that they would not be there at all, and that Russia would not even allow Americans in.
- KyleBerezin 4y ago
  Work maybe? Family? I'm sure not every reason is good but some are.
  - publicola1990 4y ago
    Some US companies still are having operations in Russia. Cargill seems to be one of them.
- JadoJodo 4y ago
  The article talks about how a lot (most?) of the citizens are religious workers. The Salvation Army, World Relief, etc. are often in places like Russia, despite the conditions or events transpiring in the world.
- TrapLord_Rhodo 4y ago
  well, you get interrigated at the border because obviously the sentiment that you excuded. Utter confusion... "Why would you want to be here". but after an hour or two and they just realise you are a crazy american that likes the thrill of traveling to places they probably shouldn't be. Not that I have any experience in the matter... ;)
- gspetr 4y ago
  Dual citizenship is a thing.
stevespang 4y ago
[dead]
gspetr 4y ago
This should be understood as a message to those rich people (and/or their dual citizenship proxies managing their assets) with dual citizenships: "US will not go balls-to-the-wall to bail your asses out like it would for its OG citizens. If you continue engaging in overly risky business over there, whatever consequences may be, that's on you."
mzs 4y ago
advisory itself: https://ru.usembassy.gov/travel-advisory-russia-do-not-travel-february-12-2023/ https://ru.usembassy.gov/travel-advisory-russia-do-not-trave...
IAmGraydon 4y ago
This has been the case since even before the invasion of Ukraine: https://ru.usembassy.gov/security-alert-update-to-travel-advisory-for-russia-january-23-2022/ https://ru.usembassy.gov/security-alert-update-to-travel-adv... The world, and in particular the US population, seems to be very much in panic mode with obvious signs of hypervigilance for at least the last few weeks. Everyone needs to take a deep breath.
giardini 4y ago
Perhaps Ukraine kept a few nukes hidden that the Russian bookkeepers lost track of. Time to launch may be nearing. And then there's https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russias-atomic-nightmare-100-missing-suitcase-nuclear-weapons-179577 https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russias-atomic-nightm...
- aYsY4dDQ2NrcNzA 4y ago
  The international community was involved in the disarmament process. I doubt very much that the Pentagon lost count.
  - giardini 4y ago
    Since when has the Pentagon access to Russia's nuclear program accounting information? Furthermore there are claims that ~100 Soviet-era "suitcase nukes" had been handed off (and cannot now be accounted for) to now-defunct USSR republics, some now became failed states, and have been drifting "in the wind" for decades. "Lebed Says Russia Has Lost Track of 100 Nuclear Bombs" https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1997-sep-09-mn-30448-story.html https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1997-sep-09-mn-30448...
ck2 4y ago
I've got a bad feeling by the end of this year the United States is no longer going to be the only nation to use nuclear weapons on a civilian population. All it would take is a doctor telling Putin he only has a few months left on some kind of illness.

149 points by pg_1234 4y ago

Judo and two total wars with western powers won only after seemingly losing everything -- it's hard not to think that the dictator will eventually inflict far far more pain in the form of martial law on his own people than any of us can imagine in the hopes that that will allow them to find the spark to fall to such a base survival instinct as to bounce back. By no means do I believe that will happen, in fact I believe we must do anything in our power to ensure that does not happen, but I do believe there's been a lack of critical analysis of the way that dictator likely thinks based on a lens of history and his favorite sport. He likely genuinely believes they need to keep losing and losing much more badly than they are today before they can have a shot of turning the tide. It's definitely time to get out of there

jb1991 4y ago
> He likely genuinely believes they need to keep losing and losing much more badly than they are today before they can have a shot of turning the tide. I'm having some difficulty following your argument. You're saying Putin thinks Russia needs to keep losing the war so that eventually they can win it? I find that confusing.
- californiadreem 4y ago
  "Judo (Japanese for “the gentle way”) emphasizes winning in combat by using your opponent's weight and strength as weapons against him, while preserving your own mental and physical energy."
  - esotericimpl 4y ago
    [dead]
  - ylk 4y ago
    Since jb1991 is being downvoted I want to clarify that this doesn’t somehow support the grandparent. Using your opponents strength as weapon means deflecting their attack and using the force to throw them on the ground/defeat them. Have a look at e.g. 5:58 https://youtu.be/-Qe_JKQjJTA https://youtu.be/-Qe_JKQjJTA It’s kata, so slow and meant for demonstration purposes.
- redwood 4y ago
  I don't know if you've ever read War and Peace or looked into the Napoleonic Wars in Russia, and also looked at the parallels to the Eastern theater of World War II, that's what I'm referring to
ylk 4y ago
In Judo you don’t take a beating, magically absorb all the force and then release it all in a gigantic blow that sends the opponent flying towards the moon, shattering it on impact, like in an anime. The stuff you describe doesn’t have anything to do with the sport. It’s insane how people twist things to make them fit their ideas.
- redwood 4y ago
  I mean it more metaphorically in the sense that when your opponent comes in with a lot of force, you can harness that into them thinking they've got it

docdeek 4y ago

Is this a big deal because it is the US? FWIW the Australian government has had this sort of warning out for their citizens in Russia for more than a month (at least since 11 January): "If you're in Russia, leave immediately using the limited commercial options available or private means if it's safe to do so. Review your personal security plans and carefully consider the safest means and route to depart.” [1] [1]: https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/destinations/europe/russia https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/destinations/europe/russia

haswell 4y ago
FTA, this is not the first time the US has warned citizens about this either, but renewing this warning in the wake of recent events does seem interesting.
- csydas 4y ago
  I lived in Russia for 6 years prior to the invasion of Ukraine (2022 edition), and I can confirm that the US has frequently warned very heavily for basically all actions in Russia, even during peace times (before the first invasion of Ukraine even). I think even in 2015 when I went the first time, Russia was still on the 2nd level of warning despite overall decent relationships between the two countries at the time. These warnings have been persistent for the last 8 years and in my discussions with the US consulate when I was there, it's less about indicating anything in specific and more about the US protecting its own interests and being as clear as possible that they cannot assist on a lot of things right now due to very limited diplomatic presence. The message that I was told at the consulate during the first Ukraine invasion was "we're very limited on staff and influence; we cannot make you leave, but you need to understand that if you get in legal trouble, we likely cannot help you." (this was a bit after the Saint Petersburg US embassy was closed) While I don't doubt there is some concern about persons being taken for negotiation purposes, I think the major concern is just that the US is not in a position to assist for many foreign citizen services as the diplomatic tensions are far too high right now. Unless you already have good connections in Russia, at best you're stuck in a bad spot without help from the consulate, and at worst there is a chance you become a means of bargaining (though this has always been the case).

nicbou 4y ago

Summary: this is due to arbitrary arrests of US citizens, not an escalation of the conflict with Russia.

SOLAR_FIELDS 4y ago
Is it wrong to assume that the two are not wholly unrelated activities?
- mannykannot 4y ago
  It is reasonable to consider whether both motives apply, but one should also note that the former alone is sufficient reason for this action (and also sufficient reason for individual US citizens to carefully consider whether they want to be in Russia or its puppet states.)
  - baybal2 4y ago
    [dead]
- pg_1234 4y ago
  If the US were planning to take a more aggressive stance with Russia, the first move would be to get their citizens/potential hostages out of reach. Obviously, not everyone will leave, but now the administration can say "they were warned" if they get caught in the political crossfire later.
- nicbou 4y ago
  When I saw the title, I feared a much scarier message: "sh*t's about to go down". This is much better.
barrkel 4y ago
Russia managed to free Viktor Bout in trade for Brittney Griner. It stands to reason then that more US citizens are a handy asset to have for trading.
- 4y ago

pjc50 4y ago

Bit late for that now, isn't it? Anyone who didn't start making preparations to leave last year was excessively optimistic about how countries collapse.

hooby 4y ago
The article states that this is not the first time this warning has been issued. Last such issue was in September - and there have been more such warnings before that.

kypro 4y ago

Something that's been concerning me about all these UFOs being shot down is that perhaps it could be best explained by the start of something else building up... Realistically these UFO's aren't alien crafts but hostile spy drones. Perhaps the reason we haven't heard about these drones before could be that the US has never felt the need to act (the spying poses no real imminent threat), or maybe the hostile state sending the drones only now feels the need to spy on US military bases. But however you look at this either the US is suddenly much more concerned about someone spying on their military bases, or some state suddenly feels the need to spy on US military bases. We also know that NATO countries now seem to be willing to arm UA with weaponry not just capable of putting up a decent defence against Russian forces, but actually pushing them back into Russian territory. It seems the US and allies no longer just wants UA to hold their own against RU, but actually win the war. Imo if UA is able to push RU back they're likely to try to reclaim annexed territories back from RU. It seems likely the US and allies would understand this is a probable outcome. After all would NATO countries be sending tanks and such expensive weaponry if they thought UA had no chance? It seems likely they are betting on a UA victory and all that entails. Most experts agree the conflict in UA will pick up again in the spring. And in the event of a potential UA victory the use of tactical nuclear weapons from RU seem likely. If the US knows RU is likely a couple of months away from using nukes in UA then perhaps this would explain why they're suddenly so worried about these spy drones, or why there's been a sudden increase in them. Maybe I'm making too many assumptions here, but it just feels like there's lots of chess pieces moving in worrying ways right now. This request being yet another. Am I wrong to be concerned?

barrkel 4y ago
> And in the event of a potential UA victory the use of tactical nuclear weapons from RU seem likely The consensus military opinion I've read on this is that tactical nukes aren't very useful militarily; troops in the field are too dispersed. If there's a hardened target, then yes, otherwise not great. They then have to be weighed against the costs of crossing that Rubicon. > why they're suddenly so worried about these spy drones I think this is largely because of opposition screeching.
- 4y ago

bigbacaloa 4y ago

This is cold war 101. Some of y'all just too young to remember.

meghan_rain 4y ago
[flagged]
Broken_Hippo 4y ago
Not really. This is just normal government. I have lived in Norway for... Officially around 9 years (was in the country, legally, some months before the official immigration date). I don't know how much you know about Norway, but in general, Norway is Safe. Safe in a way I didn't have in small town America, despite me living in a town of 180k or so people (college town, so it fluctuates a bit). I get warnings about protests and told how much I need to stay away. Generally, these warnings mean that the protests/demonstrations are not only in Oslo (around an hour flight or many hours driving) but also that they are by the embassy. The warnings, sent by email, are generally full of "oh noes, there is danger!" and plenty of messages about not protesting and not going near crowds that are. Only once in that time has there been any mention of violence that came - and that was someone trying to enter the Iranian embassy. This was very out of character for protests here. Which means, realistically, this is more general scaremongering by the US government. While I believe they (the government) have actual reason for the warnings (compared to protest warnings), every fiber of my being wants to say that they are being a bit over the top. Not because of cold war stuff, but because this seems like normal operating procedure for the government. I say this even as I would be looking to leave Russia right now regardless because of the warring and such.
- bigbacaloa 4y ago
  Scaremongering by the us government is cold war 101. Like shooting down random .

cpursley 4y ago

I don’t buy the idea that Russia would conscript dual US-Russian citizens for one big reason: trust. For the same reason the US would avoid conscripting Russians. Also, we’ve been told on multiple occasions that Russia would declare martial law yet the borders are still open for military aged males.

justinclift 4y ago
Not sure where the idea of conscription is coming from for you. It's not mentioned anywhere in the article.
- reisse 4y ago
  It is mentioned in original warning from the embassy.
- dandanua 4y ago
  It's in the source https://ru.usembassy.gov/travel-advisory-russia-do-not-travel-february-12-2023/ https://ru.usembassy.gov/travel-advisory-russia-do-not-trave...
  - justinclift 4y ago
    Thanks, so it is. :)

Overtonwindow 4y ago

Why would United States citizens be in Russia to begin with? I would think that they would not be there at all, and that Russia would not even allow Americans in.

KyleBerezin 4y ago
Work maybe? Family? I'm sure not every reason is good but some are.
- publicola1990 4y ago
  Some US companies still are having operations in Russia. Cargill seems to be one of them.
JadoJodo 4y ago
The article talks about how a lot (most?) of the citizens are religious workers. The Salvation Army, World Relief, etc. are often in places like Russia, despite the conditions or events transpiring in the world.
TrapLord_Rhodo 4y ago
well, you get interrigated at the border because obviously the sentiment that you excuded. Utter confusion... "Why would you want to be here". but after an hour or two and they just realise you are a crazy american that likes the thrill of traveling to places they probably shouldn't be. Not that I have any experience in the matter... ;)
gspetr 4y ago
Dual citizenship is a thing.

stevespang 4y ago

[dead]

gspetr 4y ago

This should be understood as a message to those rich people (and/or their dual citizenship proxies managing their assets) with dual citizenships: "US will not go balls-to-the-wall to bail your asses out like it would for its OG citizens. If you continue engaging in overly risky business over there, whatever consequences may be, that's on you."

mzs 4y ago

advisory itself: https://ru.usembassy.gov/travel-advisory-russia-do-not-travel-february-12-2023/ https://ru.usembassy.gov/travel-advisory-russia-do-not-trave...

IAmGraydon 4y ago

This has been the case since even before the invasion of Ukraine: https://ru.usembassy.gov/security-alert-update-to-travel-advisory-for-russia-january-23-2022/ https://ru.usembassy.gov/security-alert-update-to-travel-adv... The world, and in particular the US population, seems to be very much in panic mode with obvious signs of hypervigilance for at least the last few weeks. Everyone needs to take a deep breath.

giardini 4y ago

Perhaps Ukraine kept a few nukes hidden that the Russian bookkeepers lost track of. Time to launch may be nearing. And then there's https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russias-atomic-nightmare-100-missing-suitcase-nuclear-weapons-179577 https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russias-atomic-nightm...

aYsY4dDQ2NrcNzA 4y ago
The international community was involved in the disarmament process. I doubt very much that the Pentagon lost count.
- giardini 4y ago
  Since when has the Pentagon access to Russia's nuclear program accounting information? Furthermore there are claims that ~100 Soviet-era "suitcase nukes" had been handed off (and cannot now be accounted for) to now-defunct USSR republics, some now became failed states, and have been drifting "in the wind" for decades. "Lebed Says Russia Has Lost Track of 100 Nuclear Bombs" https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1997-sep-09-mn-30448-story.html https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1997-sep-09-mn-30448...

ck2 4y ago

I've got a bad feeling by the end of this year the United States is no longer going to be the only nation to use nuclear weapons on a civilian population. All it would take is a doctor telling Putin he only has a few months left on some kind of illness.