4 ms·

Tony Robbins has been saying this for decades. People overestimate what they can do in a year but massively underestimate what they can do in a decade. One impl

by voisin 4y ago

Tony Robbins has been saying this for decades. People overestimate what they can do in a year but massively underestimate what they can do in a decade. One implication being that if you take up a hobby (say, playing the piano) after a year you are probably not very good and a lot of people then give it up because their performance doesn’t meet their (over-)expectation. But stick with it, grinding it out year after year, and almost anyone can meet their expectations. The trick, of course, is to only undertake those few things which you think you’ll want to stick with over the long term.

bitexploder 4y ago
Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, a grappling martial art, is very much like that. And there was a great post on HN yesterday about this. And I just randomly had a talk with my son about effort and hard work (he is 16, struggling with school, ADHD, just like me). Here are my anecdotes: BJJ: After one year, all but the newest people still make you feel like you don't know anything, they can submit you pretty easily. Train for 10 years and you are at or close to "black belt" (Which takes on average 10-12 years in BJJ, it is not easy to get at all) and you can fold people up on instinct. The funny thing about the 1 year mark, you FEEL like you haven't learned anything, but you can gently fold the average human up now if it comes down to it. Business: We built a business over 8 years. It was hard. The first year we were negative in profit, paying ourselves out of our bank accounts. Overnight success in 8 years. Just keep learning everything that wasn't tech, marketing, people management skills, etc. Eventually we did well got up to like 20 person head count purely with organic growth and were acquired. Skills in general: https://gist.github.com/gtallen1187/e83ed02eac6cc8d7e185 https://gist.github.com/gtallen1187/e83ed02eac6cc8d7e185 "A little slope makes up for a lot of y-intercept". So now when people ask me anything. Career advice. How do I lose weight. How do I get in shape. "Let me tell you about my 10 year plan for you. you can't even imagine how long and hard 10 years is, I know, but that is what it is going to take to make a life long change. do you still want my advice?" Of course many good things happen sooner, but I only talk to people that can at least accept it is going to be hard and I don't hold any secrets about anything other than you have to work really hard and apply effort.
- matwood 4y ago
  I'm glad someone brought up BJJ. I'm ~4 years in, and it works exactly this way. The day to day doesn't seem like you're learning that much. In fact, I don't even feel like I know that much after 4 years. But, when I roll with high belts now many have to really work to get me. And like you said, if I go against someone who has never grappled before, I can gently fold them up without breathing hard.
  - bitexploder 4y ago
    I am at 4 years. Lay off for COVID. Just starting to get the hang of some things and present problems to higher belts. The interesting thing to me, once I can funnel someone into a dilemma game I know well, there isn't as much difference as I thought there would be between upper belts. I would say tougher black belts have seen it all before and give a really hard fight at each decision point in the attack tree, and can often just escape if technique is a little lose, but it isn't insanely different. I know how to fix things and make it harder every time I find a little gap like that now and they are little gaps. I still just get beat up most of the time, heh, but when things work they really work as I implement more of the game I like. I think that is an interesting place in skill development. Not an expert, but not a novice.
    - matwood 4y ago
      I definitely still get beat up most of the time. Also, within black belts there can be a lot of variation. But to your point, you have enough tools now that if you execute properly and lead a high belt down your path, you could catch them. That simply would never happen until 3-4 years in (and I'm not counting life long wrestlers who show up with 'no' BJJ experience). A big turning point for me was when I would lose and could walk backwards the whole roll in my head and see the root error. BJJ is a lot like chess in this way. When you start you just get beat and see the move that beat you. As you get better you see the chain of events that lead to the finish.
      - bitexploder 4y ago
Spooky23 4y ago
I think people are wired to seasons and beyond that things get pretty abstract.

by voisin 4y ago

bitexploder 4y ago

Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, a grappling martial art, is very much like that. And there was a great post on HN yesterday about this. And I just randomly had a talk with my son about effort and hard work (he is 16, struggling with school, ADHD, just like me). Here are my anecdotes: BJJ: After one year, all but the newest people still make you feel like you don't know anything, they can submit you pretty easily. Train for 10 years and you are at or close to "black belt" (Which takes on average 10-12 years in BJJ, it is not easy to get at all) and you can fold people up on instinct. The funny thing about the 1 year mark, you FEEL like you haven't learned anything, but you can gently fold the average human up now if it comes down to it. Business: We built a business over 8 years. It was hard. The first year we were negative in profit, paying ourselves out of our bank accounts. Overnight success in 8 years. Just keep learning everything that wasn't tech, marketing, people management skills, etc. Eventually we did well got up to like 20 person head count purely with organic growth and were acquired. Skills in general: https://gist.github.com/gtallen1187/e83ed02eac6cc8d7e185 https://gist.github.com/gtallen1187/e83ed02eac6cc8d7e185 "A little slope makes up for a lot of y-intercept". So now when people ask me anything. Career advice. How do I lose weight. How do I get in shape. "Let me tell you about my 10 year plan for you. you can't even imagine how long and hard 10 years is, I know, but that is what it is going to take to make a life long change. do you still want my advice?" Of course many good things happen sooner, but I only talk to people that can at least accept it is going to be hard and I don't hold any secrets about anything other than you have to work really hard and apply effort.

matwood 4y ago
I'm glad someone brought up BJJ. I'm ~4 years in, and it works exactly this way. The day to day doesn't seem like you're learning that much. In fact, I don't even feel like I know that much after 4 years. But, when I roll with high belts now many have to really work to get me. And like you said, if I go against someone who has never grappled before, I can gently fold them up without breathing hard.
- bitexploder 4y ago
  I am at 4 years. Lay off for COVID. Just starting to get the hang of some things and present problems to higher belts. The interesting thing to me, once I can funnel someone into a dilemma game I know well, there isn't as much difference as I thought there would be between upper belts. I would say tougher black belts have seen it all before and give a really hard fight at each decision point in the attack tree, and can often just escape if technique is a little lose, but it isn't insanely different. I know how to fix things and make it harder every time I find a little gap like that now and they are little gaps. I still just get beat up most of the time, heh, but when things work they really work as I implement more of the game I like. I think that is an interesting place in skill development. Not an expert, but not a novice.
  - matwood 4y ago
    I definitely still get beat up most of the time. Also, within black belts there can be a lot of variation. But to your point, you have enough tools now that if you execute properly and lead a high belt down your path, you could catch them. That simply would never happen until 3-4 years in (and I'm not counting life long wrestlers who show up with 'no' BJJ experience). A big turning point for me was when I would lose and could walk backwards the whole roll in my head and see the root error. BJJ is a lot like chess in this way. When you start you just get beat and see the move that beat you. As you get better you see the chain of events that lead to the finish.
    - bitexploder 4y ago

Spooky23 4y ago

I think people are wired to seasons and beyond that things get pretty abstract.