12 ms·

As much as I want to see the Islamic Republic collapse, and as much as I do believe it will collapse in the next few years, to me this hack[1] seems state-spons

by brap 4y ago

As much as I want to see the Islamic Republic collapse, and as much as I do believe it will collapse in the next few years, to me this hack[1] seems state-sponsored. It looks like professionals trying to look like amateurs. Not a bad thing, though. Iranians need all the help they can get. [1] https://twitter.com/EdaalateAli1400/status/1624373234836668418 https://twitter.com/EdaalateAli1400/status/16243732348366684...

Alir3z4 4y ago
> I do believe it will collapse in the next few years Has been said for the last 44 years.
kris_wayton 4y ago
Do you mean as a sort of sponsored/approved false flag, or just that thoughts of revolution are reaching up into institutions?
- brap 4y ago
  I mean sponsored by a foreign nation (not as a false flag). Of course this is just my gut feeling, nothing else.
lr4444lr 4y ago
Define "few".
the_af 4y ago
The collapse of the Islamic Republic will likely bring much misery, upheaval and deaths. Why wish for this from the comfort of our countries? If the collapse comes with a power vacuum and the resurgence of competing fundamentalist groups, this wouldn't be helping any Iranians. Last time Western powers meddled, it resulted in the Islamic Revolution, after all.
- ep103 4y ago
  You're right, if the future holds the possibility of danger, we should never try to improve anything at all. Better to always stay with the misery we already know, and never try to improve our lives. Good point. /s
  - the_af 4y ago
    This is not at all what I said, I suggest you look at HN guidelines. When "we" "improve" other countries, it often doesn't come well. "We" tend to create power vacuums and help the rise of fundamentalist groups. "We" messed up Iraq and neighboring countries. "We" helped create the opportunity for the Islamic Revolution to occur. All of what I'm saying is documented fact, not conspiracy theories. Recent history. All I'm saying is self evident to any thinking person: do not wish for the "collapse" of a nation state. Not unless you are willing to live there during its collapse. Not from the comfort of your home. Having the decency to exercise some restraint before wishing for the collapse of anyone's nation state is a lesson we should have learned by now.
    - fromseashore 4y ago
      Have you ever asked yourself, whether you have any right whatsoever to "improve" other countries? It looks like this simple question is very rarely being asked in US..
      - the_af 4y ago
        I'm not from the US and I share the sentiment in the question you're asking. More importantly, I don't think any country has the right to hasten another country's collapse.
    - nradov 4y ago
      I am a thinking person and I wish for the collapse of the Iranian, Russian, and Chinese nation states (among others). Some people always have a rough time in a societal collapse, but that would at least offer the possibility of a brighter future instead of perpetual authoritarian oppression. And, selfishly, it would eliminate threats to the US and our allies. I don't think we should intervene military to cause such a collapse. But we should exert peaceful pressure to hasten it, just like we did with the USSR.
- pinkbeanz 4y ago
  Iranians are willing to die (and are dying) to fight the current government. Inflation and the economy has destroyed their hope of a future for decades. Talk to any Iranian now and they’re all hoping for the end of the regime. It can’t get much worse. Iran is not Syria, there’s a flourishing academic population, the fundamentalists are the ones in power, plenty of people still remember what life was like pre-1979.
  - the_af 4y ago
    > Iran is not Syria, there’s a flourishing academic population, the fundamentalists are the ones in power What do you think will happen if the Iranian state collapses? What happened the last time the Iranian state collapsed? Something to ponder before wishing for another collapse.
    - pinkbeanz 4y ago
      I’m an Iranian, I’m allowed to wish for the collapse of that awful regime. You can save your sanctimony for someone else.
      - mighty_donkey 4y ago
        Regime rapes and murders women and children, imprisons thousands, mismanages the economy to the point where millions live in poverty and everyone's life savings are slashed in half , environmental degradation to the point where lakes are drying up, state-sponsored terrorism etc....but hey guys have you "pondered" how bad state collapse would be?
        the_af 4y ago
        https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html Please assume good faith and don't incite flamewars. When I'm arguing against wishing for collapse "from the comfort of our countries", where do you read that I'm talking to Iranians? I'm talking to HN commenters who are not from Iran. I'm obviously not arguing with pinkbeanz since he/she is from Iran. Try arguing in good faith, unless you want this to devolve into a flamewar. You already tried something like this in another comment: please stop.
- luckylion 4y ago
  > Last time Western powers meddled, it resulted in the Islamic Revolution, after all. There were 25 years between those two events though, so it's hard to draw a direct line. It's perfectly reasonable to assume that the Islamic Revolution would've happened even without the 1953 coup d'état and the economic growth that followed it.
  - the_af 4y ago
    I don't think it'd be reasonable to assume that, no. The Islamic Revolution didn't happen in a vacuum.
    - luckylion 4y ago
      So without the 1953 coup d'état you're certain there wouldn't have been an Islamic revolution because Islamic groups would never again have held any public sway and power? That's hard to imagine. Just because it didn't happen in a vacuum doesn't meant "it would never have happened unless exactly these circumstances had existed", which is what I'm saying. One could similarly claim that the German reunification resulted in Russia invading Ukraine, but it's obviously not a direct consequence, and over 30 years lots of things are happening, and things are dynamic, so the "if this then that" line gets weaker with each year that passes. Otherwise we end up with "Cain slaying Abel resulted in cell phones".
      - derefr 4y ago
        I believe what they're saying is that without continuous trade sanctions imposed after the coup, there may not have been an Islamic revolution.
      - the_af 4y ago
        > So without the 1953 coup d'état you're certain there wouldn't have been an Islamic revolution because Islamic groups would never again have held any public sway and power? No, saying something isn't "reasonable to assume" doesn't mean it cannot ever happen. It's hard to prove an hypothetical wouldn't have happened. I meant that it's unreasonable to suppose the Islamic Revolution would have happened without first the coup (by the West) and then the continued Western support of a tyrannical dictatorship, which gave support to the Islamic revolutionaries that the West was "the devil". Had Iran had a stable, less tyrannical government for decades, support for a Islamic revolution would have been much, much lower. Would it have been impossible? No. Would it have been much less likely? Sure.
- rocketbop 4y ago
  That’s unfortunately likely true, other regimes which have fallen in recent years have resulted in terrible misery as the power vacuum opens up. The reality though is there is already misery in Iran; economic stagnation, government sanctioned murders and beatings, and people are deeply unhappy. Source - my partner is Persian and she still has family living in Tehran.
- Alir3z4 4y ago
  This is an English language and of course majority westerners. You say something against the mainstream media or US hegemony, you'll b labeled as Basiji or "iranian regime supporter" or "on Putin payroll". Not a place for thinking even epsilon out of tunneled vision made by westerners propaganda machine. After all, majority are the ones that gonna rewrite their project in different language or stack because "the landing page said so"
- sgjohnson 4y ago
  The Islamic Republic brings much misery, upheaval and deaths. I don’t really see your point.
  - jacooper 4y ago
    Syria now vs Syria pre-civil war. Which is better?
    - sgjohnson 4y ago
      Living on your knees, or dying standing up. Which is better?
      - the_af 4y ago
        That's for the Iranians to decide. Some people would rather live under an oppressive regime rather than die during its death throes. I won't judge them. It's not for me to decide, not if it's not my country. Did we ever find out whether Iraqis preferred living under Saddam's dictatorship if the alternative was the turmoil that ensued afterwards, insurgency, terror attacks, ISIS, etc?
        sgjohnson 4y ago
        Considering Iran is actively trying to build a nuclear bomb, I’d say it’s a problem for the world, and I’m fairly certain that very few westerners would care about the well-being of the general population of Iran should they get too close to building one. An internal coup would likely be far better than an external one. The ayatollahs simply cannot remain in power. You don’t need to be an Iranian for this to matter to you.
        jacooper 4y ago
        > Considering Iran is actively trying to build a nuclear bomb, I’d say it’s a problem for the world, and I’m fairly certain that very few westerners would care about the well-being of the general population of Iran should they get too close to building one. The apartheid occupation has a nuclear bomb that threatens the entire area, yet it seems fine for you?
- illiac786 4y ago
  Easy to say this from the comfort of your home. You don't live under the current regime.
  - the_af 4y ago
    Can you restate in a form that is not a snark? What is "easy for me to say" because I don't live there? That before we (not Iranians) wish for the collapse of the current Islamic state, we should understand what it will mean for the people living there -- sure, no longer under the yoke of the Islamic Revolution, but very likely either dead from the destruction that will ensue, or under the yoke of whatever fundamentalist group moves in after, which is very likely to happen based on similar events in the region? In what sense it's "easy" for me to say, "think hard before wishing for violence on others 'for their own good'"? I'm sorry, but you cannot throw back my statement at me because I'm arguing for thoughtfulness.
    - illiac786 4y ago
      I am saying it's easy to say " don't do anything", "be patient" or even "it could be worse" when you don't live there, just like it's easy to wish for the regime to fall. My point was, you seem to only perceive one side of the argument as being "easy from the comfort of our homes", your view is somehow not, because you think your view is neutral. But not taking action is a decision as well. It's a decision very easy to push for when you don't leave under the Iranian regime. I hope it's clearer.
      - the_af 4y ago
        Wishing for war/collapse is the "active" path, while urging caution is like the null-hypothesis (stretching the analogy a bit). You can reach the conclusion that violence is needed, after all -- I'm just urging more thoughtfulness, especially when the collapse is desired by people who don't have to live with the consequences. Consider that the Islamic Revolution was also the consequence of a collapse. Finally, let me reiterate I think the current regime is bad, and if there was a way to make it go away, as directed by Iranian people, without interference from other countries with vested interests not necessarily aligned with Iranians, I'd be all for it. Alas, magic solutions don't exist. The default option should always be non-violence/non-societal-collapse.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
favaq 4y ago
Just by reading the article title my mind went directly to "CIA"
bredren 4y ago
It does look professionally unpolished. So much so, I hope it is not authentic or it missed the mark. Is there any prior verified Iranian art of the max headroom style asthetic shown here that might make this more believable?
tempaccount420 4y ago
Could this be a false flag/sabotage by Iran itself? I don't know what the video says, but it's pretty scary, with the spooky mask moving up and down as the woman speaks in a deep voice. Imagine if children were watching this, would it not leave a scar on them and make them less likely to support protesters when they grow up?

by brap 4y ago

Alir3z4 4y ago

> I do believe it will collapse in the next few years Has been said for the last 44 years.

kris_wayton 4y ago

Do you mean as a sort of sponsored/approved false flag, or just that thoughts of revolution are reaching up into institutions?

brap 4y ago
I mean sponsored by a foreign nation (not as a false flag). Of course this is just my gut feeling, nothing else.

lr4444lr 4y ago

Define "few".

the_af 4y ago

The collapse of the Islamic Republic will likely bring much misery, upheaval and deaths. Why wish for this from the comfort of our countries? If the collapse comes with a power vacuum and the resurgence of competing fundamentalist groups, this wouldn't be helping any Iranians. Last time Western powers meddled, it resulted in the Islamic Revolution, after all.

ep103 4y ago
You're right, if the future holds the possibility of danger, we should never try to improve anything at all. Better to always stay with the misery we already know, and never try to improve our lives. Good point. /s
- the_af 4y ago
  This is not at all what I said, I suggest you look at HN guidelines. When "we" "improve" other countries, it often doesn't come well. "We" tend to create power vacuums and help the rise of fundamentalist groups. "We" messed up Iraq and neighboring countries. "We" helped create the opportunity for the Islamic Revolution to occur. All of what I'm saying is documented fact, not conspiracy theories. Recent history. All I'm saying is self evident to any thinking person: do not wish for the "collapse" of a nation state. Not unless you are willing to live there during its collapse. Not from the comfort of your home. Having the decency to exercise some restraint before wishing for the collapse of anyone's nation state is a lesson we should have learned by now.
  - fromseashore 4y ago
    Have you ever asked yourself, whether you have any right whatsoever to "improve" other countries? It looks like this simple question is very rarely being asked in US..
    - the_af 4y ago
      I'm not from the US and I share the sentiment in the question you're asking. More importantly, I don't think any country has the right to hasten another country's collapse.
  - nradov 4y ago
    I am a thinking person and I wish for the collapse of the Iranian, Russian, and Chinese nation states (among others). Some people always have a rough time in a societal collapse, but that would at least offer the possibility of a brighter future instead of perpetual authoritarian oppression. And, selfishly, it would eliminate threats to the US and our allies. I don't think we should intervene military to cause such a collapse. But we should exert peaceful pressure to hasten it, just like we did with the USSR.
pinkbeanz 4y ago
Iranians are willing to die (and are dying) to fight the current government. Inflation and the economy has destroyed their hope of a future for decades. Talk to any Iranian now and they’re all hoping for the end of the regime. It can’t get much worse. Iran is not Syria, there’s a flourishing academic population, the fundamentalists are the ones in power, plenty of people still remember what life was like pre-1979.
- the_af 4y ago
  > Iran is not Syria, there’s a flourishing academic population, the fundamentalists are the ones in power What do you think will happen if the Iranian state collapses? What happened the last time the Iranian state collapsed? Something to ponder before wishing for another collapse.
  - pinkbeanz 4y ago
    I’m an Iranian, I’m allowed to wish for the collapse of that awful regime. You can save your sanctimony for someone else.
    - mighty_donkey 4y ago
      Regime rapes and murders women and children, imprisons thousands, mismanages the economy to the point where millions live in poverty and everyone's life savings are slashed in half , environmental degradation to the point where lakes are drying up, state-sponsored terrorism etc....but hey guys have you "pondered" how bad state collapse would be?
      - the_af 4y ago
        https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html Please assume good faith and don't incite flamewars. When I'm arguing against wishing for collapse "from the comfort of our countries", where do you read that I'm talking to Iranians? I'm talking to HN commenters who are not from Iran. I'm obviously not arguing with pinkbeanz since he/she is from Iran. Try arguing in good faith, unless you want this to devolve into a flamewar. You already tried something like this in another comment: please stop.
luckylion 4y ago
> Last time Western powers meddled, it resulted in the Islamic Revolution, after all. There were 25 years between those two events though, so it's hard to draw a direct line. It's perfectly reasonable to assume that the Islamic Revolution would've happened even without the 1953 coup d'état and the economic growth that followed it.
- the_af 4y ago
  I don't think it'd be reasonable to assume that, no. The Islamic Revolution didn't happen in a vacuum.
  - luckylion 4y ago
    So without the 1953 coup d'état you're certain there wouldn't have been an Islamic revolution because Islamic groups would never again have held any public sway and power? That's hard to imagine. Just because it didn't happen in a vacuum doesn't meant "it would never have happened unless exactly these circumstances had existed", which is what I'm saying. One could similarly claim that the German reunification resulted in Russia invading Ukraine, but it's obviously not a direct consequence, and over 30 years lots of things are happening, and things are dynamic, so the "if this then that" line gets weaker with each year that passes. Otherwise we end up with "Cain slaying Abel resulted in cell phones".
    - derefr 4y ago
      I believe what they're saying is that without continuous trade sanctions imposed after the coup, there may not have been an Islamic revolution.
    - the_af 4y ago
      > So without the 1953 coup d'état you're certain there wouldn't have been an Islamic revolution because Islamic groups would never again have held any public sway and power? No, saying something isn't "reasonable to assume" doesn't mean it cannot ever happen. It's hard to prove an hypothetical wouldn't have happened. I meant that it's unreasonable to suppose the Islamic Revolution would have happened without first the coup (by the West) and then the continued Western support of a tyrannical dictatorship, which gave support to the Islamic revolutionaries that the West was "the devil". Had Iran had a stable, less tyrannical government for decades, support for a Islamic revolution would have been much, much lower. Would it have been impossible? No. Would it have been much less likely? Sure.
rocketbop 4y ago
That’s unfortunately likely true, other regimes which have fallen in recent years have resulted in terrible misery as the power vacuum opens up. The reality though is there is already misery in Iran; economic stagnation, government sanctioned murders and beatings, and people are deeply unhappy. Source - my partner is Persian and she still has family living in Tehran.
Alir3z4 4y ago
This is an English language and of course majority westerners. You say something against the mainstream media or US hegemony, you'll b labeled as Basiji or "iranian regime supporter" or "on Putin payroll". Not a place for thinking even epsilon out of tunneled vision made by westerners propaganda machine. After all, majority are the ones that gonna rewrite their project in different language or stack because "the landing page said so"
sgjohnson 4y ago
The Islamic Republic brings much misery, upheaval and deaths. I don’t really see your point.
- jacooper 4y ago
  Syria now vs Syria pre-civil war. Which is better?
  - sgjohnson 4y ago
    Living on your knees, or dying standing up. Which is better?
    - the_af 4y ago
      That's for the Iranians to decide. Some people would rather live under an oppressive regime rather than die during its death throes. I won't judge them. It's not for me to decide, not if it's not my country. Did we ever find out whether Iraqis preferred living under Saddam's dictatorship if the alternative was the turmoil that ensued afterwards, insurgency, terror attacks, ISIS, etc?
      - sgjohnson 4y ago
        Considering Iran is actively trying to build a nuclear bomb, I’d say it’s a problem for the world, and I’m fairly certain that very few westerners would care about the well-being of the general population of Iran should they get too close to building one. An internal coup would likely be far better than an external one. The ayatollahs simply cannot remain in power. You don’t need to be an Iranian for this to matter to you.
        jacooper 4y ago
        > Considering Iran is actively trying to build a nuclear bomb, I’d say it’s a problem for the world, and I’m fairly certain that very few westerners would care about the well-being of the general population of Iran should they get too close to building one. The apartheid occupation has a nuclear bomb that threatens the entire area, yet it seems fine for you?
illiac786 4y ago
Easy to say this from the comfort of your home. You don't live under the current regime.
- the_af 4y ago
  Can you restate in a form that is not a snark? What is "easy for me to say" because I don't live there? That before we (not Iranians) wish for the collapse of the current Islamic state, we should understand what it will mean for the people living there -- sure, no longer under the yoke of the Islamic Revolution, but very likely either dead from the destruction that will ensue, or under the yoke of whatever fundamentalist group moves in after, which is very likely to happen based on similar events in the region? In what sense it's "easy" for me to say, "think hard before wishing for violence on others 'for their own good'"? I'm sorry, but you cannot throw back my statement at me because I'm arguing for thoughtfulness.
  - illiac786 4y ago
    I am saying it's easy to say " don't do anything", "be patient" or even "it could be worse" when you don't live there, just like it's easy to wish for the regime to fall. My point was, you seem to only perceive one side of the argument as being "easy from the comfort of our homes", your view is somehow not, because you think your view is neutral. But not taking action is a decision as well. It's a decision very easy to push for when you don't leave under the Iranian regime. I hope it's clearer.
    - the_af 4y ago
      Wishing for war/collapse is the "active" path, while urging caution is like the null-hypothesis (stretching the analogy a bit). You can reach the conclusion that violence is needed, after all -- I'm just urging more thoughtfulness, especially when the collapse is desired by people who don't have to live with the consequences. Consider that the Islamic Revolution was also the consequence of a collapse. Finally, let me reiterate I think the current regime is bad, and if there was a way to make it go away, as directed by Iranian people, without interference from other countries with vested interests not necessarily aligned with Iranians, I'd be all for it. Alas, magic solutions don't exist. The default option should always be non-violence/non-societal-collapse.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

favaq 4y ago

Just by reading the article title my mind went directly to "CIA"

bredren 4y ago

It does look professionally unpolished. So much so, I hope it is not authentic or it missed the mark. Is there any prior verified Iranian art of the max headroom style asthetic shown here that might make this more believable?

tempaccount420 4y ago

Could this be a false flag/sabotage by Iran itself? I don't know what the video says, but it's pretty scary, with the spooky mask moving up and down as the woman speaks in a deep voice. Imagine if children were watching this, would it not leave a scar on them and make them less likely to support protesters when they grow up?