4 ms·

I wonder if they're trying to figure out what we can detect and we're giving them all the information they need by publically shooting these down.

by c3534l 4y ago

jahewson 4y ago
If you’ve got it, flaunt it.
- RajT88 4y ago
  My gut feeling, having read all about how the balloon was NBD, and it wasn't worth the risk of shooting down over land, it happens all the time, etc., was that the publicity of an airspace incursion this time around required a response along the lines of, "F*CK YOUR BALLOON!".
crayboff 4y ago
I'm convinced that's why the balloons haven't been shot down in the past. Learning our detection abilities is probably way more important for China than anything they would be able to take a picture of.
- AlbertCory 4y ago
  Yeah, I don't think that's it. Detecting a balloon doesn't take any exotic technology. Now a hypersonic missile, or a stealth plane -- that would be a test. But losing one of those would be pretty expensive.
  - crayboff 4y ago
    I suspect finding a small balloon in the mind-boggling huge space that is American airspace is, can be surprisingly challenging. My understanding is that these UAFs are much smaller than that first Chinese balloon last week. It probably also costs a lot more money to shoot down a balloon than it costs China to put a balloon in the air.
    - AlbertCory 4y ago
      I'm not a radar expert, but maybe someone who is can enlighten us? They can detect an incoming missile, so I don't see the problem. Maybe the one today IS a lot smaller; I don't think we're getting a whole lot of details on that. As for the money: definitely. The same would be true of drones.
      - JohnBooty 4y ago
        The USAF (and any functional air force) has lots of flight time budgeted for its pilots: for training, patrols, etc. Active duty pilots must fly X number of hours per month to maintain their fight status. Essentially, they practice like athletes (because they are literally athletes, among other things) So intercepts like these, and even silly stuff like sports event flyovers, come out of their existing budgets. To actually cost us money in some meaningful way they'd have to send over extremely large quantities of drones that absolutely blow out the existing budgets for our bases. The missiles are expensive, of course: $400K a pop for those AIM-9X. But the budget for the USAF is ~$160B/year, so again, drop in the bucket.
        petre 4y ago
        If they do that, the USAF/US Army missile defense is going to zap their pesky baloons with lasers or regular ammunition. https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/12/07/us-army-laser-stryker/ https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/12/07/us-army-laser-stry... So far they're offering good sport for the USAF. I'm glad they decided to take action and shoot'em down instead of letting them pass undisturbed through US airspace. This should send a clear message to uncle Xi to keep his lantern festival at home.
        JohnBooty 4y ago
        lasers or regular ammunition. Bullets (technically, cannon fire) may not work as well as one would hope: https://eurasiantimes.com/1000-rounds-fired-why-canada-could-not-shoot-down-this-research-balloon-using-best-of-fighter-jets-25-years-ago/ https://eurasiantimes.com/1000-rounds-fired-why-canada-could...
  - celdon25 4y ago
    > Detecting a balloon doesn't take any exotic technology. Don't they have radar signatures only rivaling that of a lawnmower?
- mc32 4y ago
  People can see these with the naked eye (or with cameras). If our sophisticated defense systems are failing to match the naked eye... something is wrong.
  - crayboff 4y ago
    My understanding is that only the balloon from last week was huge and easy to see with the human eye. I believe the other UAFs are much smaller. Also there were 3 or 4 during the Trump administration and noone noticed them with their naked eye
    - laidoffamazon 4y ago
      People think they notice lots of things with their naked eyes all the time and it doesn't make the news. Reports this week were that they didn't detect them in transit at the time, we only found out after the fact. Another plausible theory is the Trump administration covered it up because of their deference to Xi in early 2020 (see: comments on COVID being under control).
  - Pxtl 4y ago
    Most of Canada is unoccupied wilderness. It's a crapload of ground to cover and no naked eyes to be found.
    - dylan604 4y ago
      Then what's the point of surveilling that?
      - phpisthebest 4y ago
        Climate Change, and Cute Polar Bear videos for YT.... ;)
- laidoffamazon 4y ago
  We spent multiple days soaking information from them and monitoring them from high altitude. We almost definitely know more about them than they know about our defenses. The immediate assumption that the Americans are being snookered comes off like reflexive anti-Americanism.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
laidoffamazon 4y ago
I think its usually a bad bet to assume to know better than military intelligence that has been circling these balloons for several days now (and yes, they were right about Iraq, it just was ignored as pretext to invade)

I wonder if they're trying to figure out what we can detect and we're giving them all the information they need by publically shooting these down.

by c3534l 4y ago

I wonder if they're trying to figure out what we can detect and we're giving them all the information they need by publically shooting these down.

jahewson 4y ago

If you’ve got it, flaunt it.

RajT88 4y ago
My gut feeling, having read all about how the balloon was NBD, and it wasn't worth the risk of shooting down over land, it happens all the time, etc., was that the publicity of an airspace incursion this time around required a response along the lines of, "F*CK YOUR BALLOON!".

crayboff 4y ago

I'm convinced that's why the balloons haven't been shot down in the past. Learning our detection abilities is probably way more important for China than anything they would be able to take a picture of.

AlbertCory 4y ago
Yeah, I don't think that's it. Detecting a balloon doesn't take any exotic technology. Now a hypersonic missile, or a stealth plane -- that would be a test. But losing one of those would be pretty expensive.
- crayboff 4y ago
  I suspect finding a small balloon in the mind-boggling huge space that is American airspace is, can be surprisingly challenging. My understanding is that these UAFs are much smaller than that first Chinese balloon last week. It probably also costs a lot more money to shoot down a balloon than it costs China to put a balloon in the air.
  - AlbertCory 4y ago
    I'm not a radar expert, but maybe someone who is can enlighten us? They can detect an incoming missile, so I don't see the problem. Maybe the one today IS a lot smaller; I don't think we're getting a whole lot of details on that. As for the money: definitely. The same would be true of drones.
    - JohnBooty 4y ago
      The USAF (and any functional air force) has lots of flight time budgeted for its pilots: for training, patrols, etc. Active duty pilots must fly X number of hours per month to maintain their fight status. Essentially, they practice like athletes (because they are literally athletes, among other things) So intercepts like these, and even silly stuff like sports event flyovers, come out of their existing budgets. To actually cost us money in some meaningful way they'd have to send over extremely large quantities of drones that absolutely blow out the existing budgets for our bases. The missiles are expensive, of course: $400K a pop for those AIM-9X. But the budget for the USAF is ~$160B/year, so again, drop in the bucket.
      - petre 4y ago
        If they do that, the USAF/US Army missile defense is going to zap their pesky baloons with lasers or regular ammunition. https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/12/07/us-army-laser-stryker/ https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/12/07/us-army-laser-stry... So far they're offering good sport for the USAF. I'm glad they decided to take action and shoot'em down instead of letting them pass undisturbed through US airspace. This should send a clear message to uncle Xi to keep his lantern festival at home.
        JohnBooty 4y ago
        lasers or regular ammunition. Bullets (technically, cannon fire) may not work as well as one would hope: https://eurasiantimes.com/1000-rounds-fired-why-canada-could-not-shoot-down-this-research-balloon-using-best-of-fighter-jets-25-years-ago/ https://eurasiantimes.com/1000-rounds-fired-why-canada-could...
- celdon25 4y ago
  > Detecting a balloon doesn't take any exotic technology. Don't they have radar signatures only rivaling that of a lawnmower?
mc32 4y ago
People can see these with the naked eye (or with cameras). If our sophisticated defense systems are failing to match the naked eye... something is wrong.
- crayboff 4y ago
  My understanding is that only the balloon from last week was huge and easy to see with the human eye. I believe the other UAFs are much smaller. Also there were 3 or 4 during the Trump administration and noone noticed them with their naked eye
  - laidoffamazon 4y ago
    People think they notice lots of things with their naked eyes all the time and it doesn't make the news. Reports this week were that they didn't detect them in transit at the time, we only found out after the fact. Another plausible theory is the Trump administration covered it up because of their deference to Xi in early 2020 (see: comments on COVID being under control).
- Pxtl 4y ago
  Most of Canada is unoccupied wilderness. It's a crapload of ground to cover and no naked eyes to be found.
  - dylan604 4y ago
    Then what's the point of surveilling that?
    - phpisthebest 4y ago
      Climate Change, and Cute Polar Bear videos for YT.... ;)
laidoffamazon 4y ago
We spent multiple days soaking information from them and monitoring them from high altitude. We almost definitely know more about them than they know about our defenses. The immediate assumption that the Americans are being snookered comes off like reflexive anti-Americanism.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]

laidoffamazon 4y ago

I think its usually a bad bet to assume to know better than military intelligence that has been circling these balloons for several days now (and yes, they were right about Iraq, it just was ignored as pretext to invade)