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Serious question: was there ever any doubt that US military could shoot something down out of the sky no matter how high it flies? If they are doing this to det

Serious question: was there ever any doubt that US military could shoot something down out of the sky no matter how high it flies? If they are doing this to determine capabilities, it's like staking at a grocery store to see if it sells milk.

dirtyid 4y ago
Removing doubt has value. If US has to shift to another platform to hit 80k feet ballon reveals specific capabilities. Like if US has to start using advanced ground based interceptors, it will inform PRC on constraints relevant in IndoPac scenario. If US has to break out asat tier weapons, ASM135 cost 5B for ~15 missiles then PRC can start developing capabilities to accordingly to shift strategic math. Imagine if balloon threat forces US to reorient billions on homeland balloon defense, that's potentially billions not going elsewhere. E:over post limit but Streak Eagle was high performance preproduction airframe specifially designed to hit 100k for a few minutes. Hard to say if current blocks can do the same or reliable prosecute mission at 100k, finding out is value itself. > knowing the US would use it to undersell capabilities Simultaneously capabilities can be prodded, i.e. PRC start testing counter measures on balloons, and if successful reveal gaps / cause more drama - US domestic politics may constrain how much US can undersell. Ultimately getting US to change ROE and consistenly enagage with live weapons is opportunity for both sides.
- sokoloff 4y ago
  US has flown F-15 (and F-104 for that matter) to over 100K feet MSL. China knows this already.
- mcphage 4y ago
  Of course, if the US expects that the Chinese are using this to test our capabilities, then they could use that to undersell their capabilities. And then the Chinese, knowing the US would use it to undersell capabilities…
  - JohnBooty 4y ago
    Yeah. I'm kind of flabbergasted by 99.9% of the comments on this topic, which assume the US is just chasing these things blindly without taking countermeasures. The F-22 and other "stealth" jets can carry radar reflectors to intentionally make themselves EXTREMELY visible on radar. https://aviation.stackexchange.com/questions/82798/how-does-the-f-22-raptor-radar-reflector-work https://aviation.stackexchange.com/questions/82798/how-does-... Why would they carry such a thing? For one, it helps reduce the risk of accidents during training and other situations where they are flying in friendly skies. Two, helps prevent nosy enemies from learning about the true radar cross section of these planes. It's hard to find concrete information on the USAF's practices here, for the obvious reasons. The following is speculation, but: one imagines that the F-22/F-35/etc carry these as standard practice when not flying combat missions/patrols. One also imagines that they can be jettisoned midflight (like drop fuel tanks) in case e.g. a patrol turns into a spicy situation. That's a guess, I don't know if that's true.
    - sundvor 4y ago
      Tangential, but you may also want to fill the skies with noise when flying a stealth mission. The rationale being that you may be able to hear a cat's claws on floorboards in the middle of the dead night, but you'd never hear it in the middle of a rave party. So pairing F-22s with eg F-15s becomes a valid strategy.
      - cwillu 4y ago
        > Tangential, but you may also want to fill the skies with noise when flying a stealth mission. Obviously simplifying, but that's the essence of what ECM is.
JohnBooty 4y ago
They could be observing specific things about the planes sent to intercept them, such as their heat signatures and radar cross sections. But also, don't assume that the US was naive here. The USAF is pretty good at electronic warfare. It's very possible they were jamming the object's sensors in various ways.

dirtyid 4y ago

Removing doubt has value. If US has to shift to another platform to hit 80k feet ballon reveals specific capabilities. Like if US has to start using advanced ground based interceptors, it will inform PRC on constraints relevant in IndoPac scenario. If US has to break out asat tier weapons, ASM135 cost 5B for ~15 missiles then PRC can start developing capabilities to accordingly to shift strategic math. Imagine if balloon threat forces US to reorient billions on homeland balloon defense, that's potentially billions not going elsewhere. E:over post limit but Streak Eagle was high performance preproduction airframe specifially designed to hit 100k for a few minutes. Hard to say if current blocks can do the same or reliable prosecute mission at 100k, finding out is value itself. > knowing the US would use it to undersell capabilities Simultaneously capabilities can be prodded, i.e. PRC start testing counter measures on balloons, and if successful reveal gaps / cause more drama - US domestic politics may constrain how much US can undersell. Ultimately getting US to change ROE and consistenly enagage with live weapons is opportunity for both sides.

sokoloff 4y ago
US has flown F-15 (and F-104 for that matter) to over 100K feet MSL. China knows this already.
mcphage 4y ago
Of course, if the US expects that the Chinese are using this to test our capabilities, then they could use that to undersell their capabilities. And then the Chinese, knowing the US would use it to undersell capabilities…
- JohnBooty 4y ago
  Yeah. I'm kind of flabbergasted by 99.9% of the comments on this topic, which assume the US is just chasing these things blindly without taking countermeasures. The F-22 and other "stealth" jets can carry radar reflectors to intentionally make themselves EXTREMELY visible on radar. https://aviation.stackexchange.com/questions/82798/how-does-the-f-22-raptor-radar-reflector-work https://aviation.stackexchange.com/questions/82798/how-does-... Why would they carry such a thing? For one, it helps reduce the risk of accidents during training and other situations where they are flying in friendly skies. Two, helps prevent nosy enemies from learning about the true radar cross section of these planes. It's hard to find concrete information on the USAF's practices here, for the obvious reasons. The following is speculation, but: one imagines that the F-22/F-35/etc carry these as standard practice when not flying combat missions/patrols. One also imagines that they can be jettisoned midflight (like drop fuel tanks) in case e.g. a patrol turns into a spicy situation. That's a guess, I don't know if that's true.
  - sundvor 4y ago
    Tangential, but you may also want to fill the skies with noise when flying a stealth mission. The rationale being that you may be able to hear a cat's claws on floorboards in the middle of the dead night, but you'd never hear it in the middle of a rave party. So pairing F-22s with eg F-15s becomes a valid strategy.
    - cwillu 4y ago
      > Tangential, but you may also want to fill the skies with noise when flying a stealth mission. Obviously simplifying, but that's the essence of what ECM is.

JohnBooty 4y ago

They could be observing specific things about the planes sent to intercept them, such as their heat signatures and radar cross sections. But also, don't assume that the US was naive here. The USAF is pretty good at electronic warfare. It's very possible they were jamming the object's sensors in various ways.