4 ms·

Conspiracy theory: Autonomous driving is being undermined by traditional car companies who see that if it is successful, it would hugely change personal transpo

by Smoosh 4y ago

Conspiracy theory: Autonomous driving is being undermined by traditional car companies who see that if it is successful, it would hugely change personal transportation and greatly reduce total sales of vehicles.

hnburnsy 4y ago
Alternate conspiracy theory: Tesla does not market its cars, while traditional automakers spend billions advertising dollars per year. Reporters work for organizations that rely on advertising.
- Moto7451 4y ago
  This isn’t really a conspiracy theory. Any time you see a positive puff piece listed as being written by “staff” or similarly vague term… that’s a marketing piece that is a paid placement.
jcranmer 4y ago
> greatly reduce total sales of vehicles. This is one of those things that always struck me as a weird, poor argument... how is autonomous driving supposed to suddenly make everyone want to stop owning their cars and use taxis instead?
- epgui 4y ago
  When you own a car, you typically only use it a small percentage of the day (it certainly is true of the average owner). When you're offering a ride service, that one car is being utilized a much higher proportion of the day. Ignoring the driver, taxi/ride-hail/autonomous-ride services are much more efficient uses of a vehicle over time. (And this is just a side note, but obviously if you don't have to pay for a human driver, you make the cost of operating the vehicle much lower per kilometre, and then it becomes much more attractive, from a purely financial POV, for most people than owning their own vehicle.)
  - palata 4y ago
    When you own a car, you don't want to wait 20min before it's ready for you. You want to bring it in remote places where it will stay so that you won't have to wait 2h for it to come back. And you want to leave your stuff in it. If you are ready to wait for a car to come pick you up, or to plan your trip based on the schedule of the car, and to pack your stuff in one bag that you can carry along... ... then, my friend, you are ready for public transportations :)
    - Dylan16807 4y ago
      If a couple percent of cars were in this kind of system, they'd be waiting all over. It would be much less than 20 minutes. They could even set up equivalent "stations" where there's almost always a car parked within a couple blocks and it can get there before you do. I don't go on a lot of long-term trips, but if I did that would still be a reason to get one car for a household instead of multiple. For rarer trips I would be happy to have a rental drive itself to my house. If you mean day trips, then none of those issues are notable with a competent self-driving fleet except "one bag", but I don't think I've ever needed more than one bag for a day trip...
      - palata 4y ago
        Really it sounds like you describe an efficient public transport system :). Of course not every city has that (I hear public transport kind of sucks in the US), but still it's important to know that other countries have that, without autonomous cars.
        Dylan16807 4y ago
        You'd have to run a bus every three minutes to get the same speed of pickup at stations. But also those busses wouldn't be able to come to your door, or drop you off directly at your destination. So I don't think I'm describing efficient public transport. I'm describing something like the platonic ideal of taxis in a dense city, but without the huge number of drivers.
- mwint 4y ago
  Consider this: our family has three cars for four people. We often have all three in different places, but rarely are all three _being driven_ at the same time. If a car could ferry itself autonomously between destinations, it’s a huge gain for logistical flexibility and we could probably get away with two or even one car.
- tgsovlerkhgsel 4y ago
  If using a taxi becomes cheap and convenient, the need to own a car goes down. I don't use a car near enough to justify owning one, but have considered getting one just because taxis are unaffordable for any bigger trips and carsharing can be a pain in the ass (mostly having to get to/from the carsharing station, inspecting for damages, and the lack of flexibility). Solve those problems, and I will actively not want to own. Parking is expensive.
grecy 4y ago
I don't know if that's true of Autonomous vehicles (it might be), but I think you'd have to be pretty naive to think that isn't happening to Electric Vehicles to continue the trillions and trillions of dollars that flow into the oil and gas industry.
King-Aaron 4y ago
I have the feeling that automotive manufacturers themselves wouldn't have anything to gain by undermining driverless cars. The insurance companies that underwrite them, on the other hand.
mr_toad 4y ago
You don’t need a conspiracy for the media to report that “new thing is dangerous”. Those stories practically click on themselves.
fshbbdssbbgdd 4y ago
Seems completely wrong to me. Commoditize your complement. If you make using a car cheaper (by removing the labor of driving), people will use cars more. Also, empirically, traditional car companies are actually investing heavily in self-driving tech. Their capabilities actually surpass Tesla’s.

by Smoosh 4y ago

hnburnsy 4y ago

Alternate conspiracy theory: Tesla does not market its cars, while traditional automakers spend billions advertising dollars per year. Reporters work for organizations that rely on advertising.

Moto7451 4y ago
This isn’t really a conspiracy theory. Any time you see a positive puff piece listed as being written by “staff” or similarly vague term… that’s a marketing piece that is a paid placement.

jcranmer 4y ago

> greatly reduce total sales of vehicles. This is one of those things that always struck me as a weird, poor argument... how is autonomous driving supposed to suddenly make everyone want to stop owning their cars and use taxis instead?

epgui 4y ago
When you own a car, you typically only use it a small percentage of the day (it certainly is true of the average owner). When you're offering a ride service, that one car is being utilized a much higher proportion of the day. Ignoring the driver, taxi/ride-hail/autonomous-ride services are much more efficient uses of a vehicle over time. (And this is just a side note, but obviously if you don't have to pay for a human driver, you make the cost of operating the vehicle much lower per kilometre, and then it becomes much more attractive, from a purely financial POV, for most people than owning their own vehicle.)
- palata 4y ago
  When you own a car, you don't want to wait 20min before it's ready for you. You want to bring it in remote places where it will stay so that you won't have to wait 2h for it to come back. And you want to leave your stuff in it. If you are ready to wait for a car to come pick you up, or to plan your trip based on the schedule of the car, and to pack your stuff in one bag that you can carry along... ... then, my friend, you are ready for public transportations :)
  - Dylan16807 4y ago
    If a couple percent of cars were in this kind of system, they'd be waiting all over. It would be much less than 20 minutes. They could even set up equivalent "stations" where there's almost always a car parked within a couple blocks and it can get there before you do. I don't go on a lot of long-term trips, but if I did that would still be a reason to get one car for a household instead of multiple. For rarer trips I would be happy to have a rental drive itself to my house. If you mean day trips, then none of those issues are notable with a competent self-driving fleet except "one bag", but I don't think I've ever needed more than one bag for a day trip...
    - palata 4y ago
      Really it sounds like you describe an efficient public transport system :). Of course not every city has that (I hear public transport kind of sucks in the US), but still it's important to know that other countries have that, without autonomous cars.
      - Dylan16807 4y ago
        You'd have to run a bus every three minutes to get the same speed of pickup at stations. But also those busses wouldn't be able to come to your door, or drop you off directly at your destination. So I don't think I'm describing efficient public transport. I'm describing something like the platonic ideal of taxis in a dense city, but without the huge number of drivers.
mwint 4y ago
Consider this: our family has three cars for four people. We often have all three in different places, but rarely are all three _being driven_ at the same time. If a car could ferry itself autonomously between destinations, it’s a huge gain for logistical flexibility and we could probably get away with two or even one car.
tgsovlerkhgsel 4y ago
If using a taxi becomes cheap and convenient, the need to own a car goes down. I don't use a car near enough to justify owning one, but have considered getting one just because taxis are unaffordable for any bigger trips and carsharing can be a pain in the ass (mostly having to get to/from the carsharing station, inspecting for damages, and the lack of flexibility). Solve those problems, and I will actively not want to own. Parking is expensive.

grecy 4y ago

I don't know if that's true of Autonomous vehicles (it might be), but I think you'd have to be pretty naive to think that isn't happening to Electric Vehicles to continue the trillions and trillions of dollars that flow into the oil and gas industry.

King-Aaron 4y ago

I have the feeling that automotive manufacturers themselves wouldn't have anything to gain by undermining driverless cars. The insurance companies that underwrite them, on the other hand.

mr_toad 4y ago

You don’t need a conspiracy for the media to report that “new thing is dangerous”. Those stories practically click on themselves.

fshbbdssbbgdd 4y ago

Seems completely wrong to me. Commoditize your complement. If you make using a car cheaper (by removing the labor of driving), people will use cars more. Also, empirically, traditional car companies are actually investing heavily in self-driving tech. Their capabilities actually surpass Tesla’s.