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International Security and Estonia 2023
- CalRobert 4y agoThe executive summary at https://raport.valisluureamet.ee/2023/en/executive-summary/ https://raport.valisluureamet.ee/2023/en/executive-summary/ may be the more useful link
- andruby 4y agoI really liked the conciseness of the executive summary. Good insights and points for somewhat not following the geopolitical landscape closely.
- beezlebroxxxxxx 4y agoWeird that it got through with a mistake in point 2: > Russia believes that time is on its side. To keep the war machine going, Russia is ready [missing a 'to' here] raise the stakes. Russia seems to believe it can “bomb” Ukraine to the negotiating table.
- bluGill 4y agoI assume this was written in Estonian, for people who live and speak Estonian. It was then translated to English by a non-native English speaker for additional international purposes, but as a native speaker of English I'm not the primary audience. Really they did a pretty good job. I could do better (as a native English speaker), but it would a lot of effort. My rough drafts (which is all you find here) are much worse.
- rmind 4y agoInterestingly, they didn't talk much about the information domain this year in the executive summary. However, an example from the report: Russia uses cyberattacks to support its strategic objectives (e.g., causing fear and weakening society’s resistance to the aggressor, disrupting the functioning of the state, and creating information noise to make it difficult to distinguish reality from disinformation). The Russo-Ukrainian war confirms that cybersecurity measures 12 make it possible to withstand cyber espionage, cyber sabotage and influence operations. Russia has had some success in its information operations. It is evident even from the number of pro-RU trolls in the comments here.
- red-iron-pine 4y agoHN is notably easy to abuse though; barebones compared to other social media operations. Which is, perhaps, part of the charm...
- t0bia_s 4y agoIf different opinion than pro-ukranian is now a pro-russian trolling, than indeed, they suceed. In democratic world we should respect dialogue and avoid using rethoric of enemy.
- musha68k 4y agoSomewhat related and interesting report by arte.tv (might need a German/French VPN exit point): https://www.arte.tv/en/videos/106708-000-A/panic-in-the-baltic/ https://www.arte.tv/en/videos/106708-000-A/panic-in-the-balt...
- bayindirh 4y agoyt-dlp seems to be able to get the video regardless of location. Video is in French, and has no subtitles. (yt-dlp gets the VTT file, but it appears to be empty).
- qilo 4y agoThere are English subtitles when video is viewed on the webpage. Don't know why yt-dlp can't find them.
- byyll 4y agohttps://arte-cmafhls.akamaized.net/am/cmaf/106000/106700/106708-000-A/230125155802/medias/106708-000-A_st_VO-ANG.vtt https://arte-cmafhls.akamaized.net/am/cmaf/106000/106700/106...
- bayindirh 4y agoThanks. This one works.
- engineer_22 4y agoFor context, Estonia is a NATO member with significant Russian minority population
- m2fkxy 4y agoRussian-speaking*. An interesting 2014 read on their inclusion re: national defence matters: https://icds.ee/wp-content/uploads/2014/Juhan_Kivirahk_-_Integrating_Estonias_Russian-Speaking_Population.pdf https://icds.ee/wp-content/uploads/2014/Juhan_Kivirahk_-_Int...
- engineer_22 4y agoThanks for that!
- luckylion 4y agoThey use the term ethnic Russian-speaking minorities, but from those minorities, it's ~89% Russians, ~8% Ukrainians and ~3% Belarusians. Not sure how much Pro-Russia sentiment there is among Ukrainians in Estonia but I'd be surprised if it's significant, so it's really "Russians" in 2023, even if it was broadly "Russian-speaking" in 2014.
- O__________O 4y agoAt this point even having a Russian speaking population is potentially a liability regardless if they’re pro-Russian or not, since Russia will just spin whatever pro-Estonian or anti-Russian sentiment they say to be propaganda and Russia will just say they obviously need to be liberated so they’re able to express their support for Russia. While only roughly 300,000 to 450,000 of 1.3 million of Estonians have ethnic ties to Russia, 73% are near Estonia’s border with Russia: https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/et-people-russians.htm https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/et-peop... This YouTube provides an animated history of Estonian borders: https://youtube.com/watch?v=HBA0xDHZjko https://youtube.com/watch?v=HBA0xDHZjko
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- paganel 4y ago[flagged]
- twixfel 4y agoThis is what happened in WW2. Nobody was willing to negotiate with Hitler because it was apparent that he was utterly untrustworthy, as evidenced by his repeated aggressions through the 30s before WW2 finally broke out. It's the same situation here. Nobody can possibly trust Putin. He's utterly untrustworthy and any treaty would presumably just be breathing space and time for Russia to continue building up its forces for another invasion, just like Hitler with, for example, the Munich Agreement. The fact is that Russia has invaded Ukraine in an act of imperial conquest under the leadership of Putin, and as a result it's very difficult to negotiate with him.
- engineer_22 4y agoThe person you replied to is saying that USA/NATO is untrustworthy, which I think is different from what you are saying.
- twixfel 4y agoOh well anyone who argues USA and NATO more untrustworthy than Russia is not a remotely serious person.
- fromseashore 4y ago"nobody can trust Putin" - it was admitted both by Merkel, and by another high ranked politician whose name I do not remember at this moment that the goal of Minsk agreement was not to give autonomy to Donbass, which did not accept ukranian nationalism, but to buy time for Ukrainian army to rearm. So I think you are confusing things.
- yostrovs 4y agoMerkel was widely misquoted. Here's what she actually said. Note that she referred to Ukraine getting more time in order to mature enough to maybe join NATO, not to be able to fight Russia on its own: "I thought that the introduction of NATO accession of Ukraine and Georgia, discussed in 2008, was wrong. The countries did not have the necessary prerequisites for this, nor was it fully understood what the consequences of such a decision would have been, both with regard to Russia’s actions against Georgia and Ukraine, as well as NATO and its rules of assistance. And the Minsk Agreement of 2014 was an attempt to give Ukraine time. Ukraine used this time to become stronger, as you can see today. The Ukraine of 2014/15 is not the Ukraine of today. An illustrative example was the battle for Debaltseve. At the beginning of 2015, Putin could easily have overrun them at that time. And I very much doubt that the NATO countries could have done as much then as they do today to help Ukraine."
- qaq 4y agoI wonder why Russia gets a pass from the left and right on being pretty brutal colonial empire. Even in present day borders Russia is composed of literally hundreds of colonised nations that get exploited and brutalised for the benefit of Moscow.
- consumer451 4y ago> I wonder why Russia gets a pass from the left and right on being pretty brutal colonial empire. Can you give some examples of what you are talking about here, and in what countries?
- pfdietz 4y agoThe entire expansion of Russia eastward across Asia to the Pacific ocean? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_evolution_of_Russia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_evolution_of_Russi...
- consumer451 4y agoI am well aware of Russian Imperialism. Are you talking about the left and the right in the USA? Who aside from modern US Republicans is giving them a pass?
- qaq 4y agopretty much everyone on the left too. Outside of Chechen wars I've never seen Russia criticised for it's colonial practices from prominent figures on the left.
- TheOtherHobbes 4y agoJeremy Corbyn has consistently criticised Putin's aggression since Georgia - far more consistently than anyone else on the Right or the Left in the UK. https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-corbyn-interview-russia-cease-fire/31838717.html https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-corbyn-interview-russia-ceas...
- throw80808013 4y ago[dead]
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- Kukumber 4y ago> Internally, Russia has become Soviet Union 2.0 Ok, i stopped at that line, that's when you know it's not a report but rather it's propaganda That's sad coming from Estonia
- Thaxll 4y agoPutin vision is Soviet Union 2.0, it has been pretty clear in the last year and even before. From the Kremlin: "Above all, we should acknowledge that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a major geopolitical disaster of the century. As for the Russian nation, it became a genuine drama. Tens of millions of our co-citizens and co-patriots found themselves outside Russian territory. Moreover, the epidemic of disintegration infected Russia itself."
- aa-jv 4y agoTell me you don't know what a Commonwealth of Independent States is, without telling me. Putin doesn't want a "new USSR". He wants a Commonwealth. If its good for Brits and Canucks and Aussies and Kiwi's, it'll work for the rest of the world too .. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Independent_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Independent_St... Its the USA that doesn't want to see this commonwealth form and become economically viable as a trading partner with the EU, because not only would it indeed represent an economic bloc that would be overwhelming for the US' intelligence services to corrupt, and usurp .. as they are wont to do .. it'd also be a superpower that even China couldn't handle. Which is why the USA is doing everything it can (Ukraine coup) to ensure this unity never happens.
- Thaxll 4y agoExcept we don't force countries to enter commonwealth, Putin is scared of old soviet union nations joining Europe. They're free to do so.
- Kukumber 4y ago> Except we don't force countries to enter commonwealth, They don't force anyone > Putin is scared of old soviet union nations joining Europe I don't think Russia is scared They are worried Europe became an american military base with long range weaponry https://www.thesoldiersproject.org/how-many-us-military-bases-are-there-in-the-world/ https://www.thesoldiersproject.org/how-many-us-military-base... > They're free to do so. Nobody said the opposite
- HatchedLake721 4y agoI highly encourage people to watch “How the United States created Vladimir Putin” that was presented in Yale University by Vladimir Pozner. It gives another perspective that’s often ignored how US and European foreign policy has played part in shaping what Russia is today. https://youtu.be/8X7Ng75e5gQ https://youtu.be/8X7Ng75e5gQ
- neoromantique 4y agoImportant to note that Vladimir Pozner has remained quiet ever since the beginning of the war.
- icegreentea2 4y agoI think it's important to acknowledge that this perspective forms a significant part of Russian internal justification for it's action. Significantly, this allows Russia to claim to be a victim in pretty much all interactions with the west. I don't think Russia should have been able to dictate the terms of NATO enlargement, but I do think the way that we enlarged NATO, combined with the lackluster way that the west attempted to engage with Russia was a foreign policy failure.
- neoromantique 4y agoThe biggest driving force behind NATO enlargement was always Russia. Who knew that if you threaten countries with war they will want to join a defensive alliance.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- HatchedLake721 4y agoRussia did not comment on NATO enlargement in the beginning, Putin actually wanted to join NATO in his early presidency. Watch the video.
- vetelko 4y ago[flagged]
- TheOtherHobbes 4y agoThis is realpolitik, so there isn't any morality beyond expansion and acquisition. Can we stop pretending these are anything other than resource wars, combined with an excuse to throw money at the defence industries? Russia looked at US actions in Iraq etc and apparently had an irrational attack of imperial atrocity envy, blended with greed over the mineral-rich areas of Eastern Ukraine. Neither empire is wholesome and good, but the Russians are almost wholly crap at militarised colonialism, while the US is fairly competent at it. However... Russia is much better at subversion and bribery. Given Jan 6 and the wholesale co-option of the far right of the Republican party - which is most of it - only someone very naive would believe that the US and NATO aren't in danger of being subverted from within. It almost happened in 2020 and it could still happen in 2024. My suspicion is that Ukraine is part distraction, part attrition campaign against NATO, and part proxy war with China, with Russia as willing (because naively stupid) intermediary. The real front is the internal politics of each NATO state. Hungary is already lost, the UK is severely weakened by Brexit, Germany was compromised but is recovering, and the US has some very serious problems with infiltration and subversion. Which are not being taken seriously enough.
- redbar0n 4y ago> militarised colonialism, while the US is fairly competent at it. Are they, actually? Vietnam, Afghanistan etc..
- aa-jv 4y agoWe must never forget that the American people murdered 5% of Iraqs' population on the basis of utter lies and have not faced justice for this atrocious abuse. The moral authority that Americans claim, to justify their nations' heinous crimes against humanity, simply doesn't exist. Americans AND Russians ought to be shunned for their nations' war crimes.
- ceejayoz 4y agoNo one claims a 2M+ death toll in Iraq, as far as I can tell.
- redbar0n 4y ago“China’s efforts to build a community of like-minded countries opposed to the West under the banner of the Global Security Initiative – which would also include Russia – undermines Estonia’s security.” Did someone say Global Defense Initiative (GDI)? Someone over there has played C&C a bit too much. :D But they got the sides mixed up. It's more like Nod. (Which is a name taken from to "The Land of Nod" in Genesis, which was located to the east of Eden).
- t0bia_s 4y agoInteresting. Visual style of this page is very similar as Petr Pavel's, new elected Czech president. https://www.generalpavel.cz/ https://www.generalpavel.cz/