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Yep. If Microsoft somehow overtakes Google from the back with Bing and ChatGPT, it'll be the tech coup of the century. And it's so fascinating how Google's po
by davesque 4y ago
Yep. If Microsoft somehow overtakes Google from the back with Bing and ChatGPT, it'll be the tech coup of the century. And it's so fascinating how Google's position as an AI think tank put them at a tremendous disadvantage. They didn't cut a deal with OpenAI because why should they? After all, they originated much of the research that led to GPT3. But then they didn't really do anything with it at all because they didn't have to. They were still printing money so effectively with their tried and true search product. They really are a victim of their own success. Frankly, that's how competition is supposed to work. I'm definitely getting a sense of schadenfreude watching all this.
- Nemi 4y agoIt makes one wonder if this is another kodak moment https://www.google.com/search?q=kodak+developed+the+digital+camera&client=safari&hl=en-us&sxsrf=AJOqlzXHqcKyEjbBNFSItHZUYpDZ73h2hg%3A1675801628197&ei=HLTiY9vNC6C1qtsPxpKKwA8&ved=0ahUKEwjby4zGn4T9AhWgmmoFHUaJAvgQ4dUDCA8&uact=5&oq=kodak+developed+the+digital+camera&gs_lcp=Cgxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAQAzIKCAAQRxDWBBCwAzIKCAAQRxDWBBCwAzIKCAAQRxDWBBCwAzIKCAAQRxDWBBCwAzIKCAAQRxDWBBCwAzIKCAAQRxDWBBCwAzIKCAAQRxDWBBCwAzIKCAAQRxDWBBCwA0oECEEYAEoECEYYAFAAWABgsgVoAXABeACAAQCIAQCSAQCYAQDIAQjAAQE&sclient=gws-wiz-serp https://www.google.com/search?q=kodak+developed+the+digital+...
- 13of40 4y agoXerox comes to mind as well.
- peanuty1 4y agoThe Innovator's Dilemma. Presumably, Google didn't want to cannibalize their cash cow (Google search) because they don't know if LLM chatbots can be monetized as effectively.
- NovaPenguin 4y agoSomething that I always admired about Apple (at least in the past) was that they were willing to make old stuff obsolete even when it was wildly successful. iPhone killing iPod is a great example of this.
- bobsil1 4y agoThey were already under competitive pressure. I bought a candy bar Sony phone with built-in MP3 player app before the iPhone.
- fnikacevic 4y agoMight become the largest case of the innovator's dilemma ever.
- siva7 4y agoThis has to be the best case of Innovator's dilemma i've ever witnessed. Even more tragic when thinking that literally every Manager at Google knows this pattern or book.
- vlovich123 4y agoI think the Innovator's Dilemma is an inexorable part of a large middle management bureaucracy. The management and product orgs look to isolate themselves from risky bottom-up innovation because they want to avoid things that risk the brand / aren't on message. Similarly, the lower rungs are focusing on demonstrable "impact" and there's no rewards for experiments that fail which means any "risks" taken are all safe hedges that are in-line with incremental bets that can't disrupt the status quo. Therefore the only "innovation" at large companies is that which is allow-listed is that by the top of the management chain. That being said, it's still too early to tell here. Microsoft is releasing "something". Whether it's any good or whether Google will respond too late is too hard to tell. AFAIK, there's published research that shows that Google's LLM is actually significantly better than ChatGPT, so is it going to take them all that long to productize it ("long" in terms of having a significant impact on market share)?
- huijzer 4y agoIt sounds more like Counter-Positioning (details, e.g. [1]) by OpenAI/Microsoft. Google cannot compete or it would attack its own main income stream and risk losing income very fast. But if they wait, then people learn to work with Microsoft/OpenAI which would hurt them in the long run. Counter-Positioning creates an impossible situation which brought many giants down including Blockbuster. [1]: https://www.lukethomas.com/counter-positioning/amp/ https://www.lukethomas.com/counter-positioning/amp/
- mrtksn 4y ago
- djfobbz 4y agoDo you see Edge using OS Chromium at its core being an issue?
- Miraste 4y agoGoogle's browser engine monopoly is useful for pushing anti-consumer web standards like Manifest v3 and Widevine. They haven't been able to leverage it against big corporations and I'm not sure how they could. Chrome on the other hand will certainly be weaponized even more than it is already.
- HDThoreaun 4y ago> they didn't really do anything with it at all because they didn't have to. They didn't do anything with it because chatbots are unequivocally a worse business model than the current search paradigm. They cost exponentially more to run and are much harder to organically advertise with without scaring away users by making the chat responses themselves ads. If the future of search is chatbots Google is facing existential problems, even if they maintain complete control over the market, because the market size will be drastically smaller.
- sn0wf1re 4y agoIt reminds me of the Tiktok vs Youtube comparison. Ad revenue was way higher on long format content, but the success of Tiktok means that Youtube now has to pay more to creators, even if their margins are lower. AI as search is lower margin but Google will need to implement it just to stay relevant.
- revskill 4y agoIt's really hard to move fast on a Python codebase i think. The solution should be rewriting it .
- lottin 4y agoTiktok succeeded because it offered something that the public wanted. I don't know that a chat bot is something that the public wants. I know I have no use for it.
- grugagag 4y agoNow youtube trying to catch up with Tiktok is ruining their users experience with their 'Shorts' feature. My opinion at least. I wish I could hide shorts and never see them again...
- visarga 4y agoDoes anyone know if parental controls can hide shorts? Especially from the mobile toolbar.
- onlyrealcuzzo 4y agoIt'd be the overtaking of the century. Let's see. Bing market share in the US = <7% (6.7% this year). Edge market share in the US = <5% (it's only 5% for desktops, and >50% of internet traffic comes from phones). Even if they get 100% of Google searches on Edge-devices to go to Bing (which they'll be lucky if they even get to 50% on their platforms) - it will hardly do anything... The rate at which Edge is becoming irrelevant as people transition traffic to laptops (more likely Macs these days) or phones (0% MSFT) - is likely going to be larger than what Microsoft can chip away via Edge. If they can chip away any meaningful traffic (I doubt it) - it will be a MUCH bigger threat when it comes from Apple. And you can bet it's coming down the pike in a year or two if not sooner. But I'm skeptical this AI search is going to be more than a fad, and I think the queries people like to ask AI search will be new types of searches (i.e. creating a new market, not taking away from the existing).
- robertlagrant 4y agoI disagree, but for totally different reasons. I think Edge's advantage is MS could build a load of corporately validated plugins and service in it for employees, making it the de facto corporate browser. Then with some decent features around work/life separation with bookmarks and password management and it could easily start bleeding back into consumerland.
- onlyrealcuzzo 4y agoWhy wouldn't Google build that into Chrome (and Mozilla into Firefox and Apple into Safari) if users want it? ChatGPT is not special. Any of these companies can develop LLMs that are on par with ChatGPT.
- visarga 4y agoI think the bar was just raised for browsers, it is like the iPhone moment. From now on every browser will have to follow suit or be left behind, can't search like it's 2019. Google could see its position taken over in 2-5 years, if we go by the speed Google itself, the iPhone, Chrome and YouTube won the market.
- prima-facie 4y agoIt's the Xerox Parc story all over again.
- siva7 4y agoMicrosoft has fucked with Xerox in the 80's. Now they're doing the same with Google.
- NovaPenguin 4y agoAlways reminded that Nokia had one of the largest R&D budgets for mobile technology and got blind sided by iPhone and subsequent smart phones. Doesn't matter how ahead of the curve on paper you are if you cannot implement it into something that people want. "Real Artists Ship" - Steve Jobs
- loldk 4y ago[dead]
- zahma 4y agoWould it also be a tech coup for privacy given that DDG uses Bing?
- bobsil1 4y agoGoogleplex → Google Parc