https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch... This stupid, basically g

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch... This stupid, basically gambling insights tool. > The CME FedWatch Tool is a tool used by traders and investors to track the probability of interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). It uses Fed funds futures prices traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) to calculate the market's expectations for the future direction of interest rates. > The data represented by the CME FedWatch Tool represents the market's perception and expectation of future Fed decisions on interest rates. It is not a prediction made by the Fed, nor is it an official statement by the Fed on future interest rate plans. > It is difficult to assess the accuracy of the CME FedWatch Tool overall as it can be influenced by many factors including market speculation, economic data releases, and changes in global events. Some market participants may find it to be a useful tool to understand market sentiment, while others may consider it to be speculative at best. Ultimately, the accuracy of the tool can only be determined in hindsight, after the Fed has actually made its interest rate decisions. I believe the Fed also releases what they call a dotplot https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20221214.pdf https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcproj... On page 4 you can see that they have rates forecasted as coming down 2024, 2025, etc.