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Excluding otherworldly forms of speculation about why possible aliens are visiting us, this subject really boils down to four tangible questions about how we ar

Excluding otherworldly forms of speculation about why possible aliens are visiting us, this subject really boils down to four tangible questions about how we arrived at this footage and the eyewitness accounts from Fravor et al: - Is it aliens? - If not, do these sightings represent real unexplainable technological phenomena (advanced propulsion technology)? - If not, are the eyewitness accounts credible? - In any case, why is the DoD letting eyewitnesses go public? With the answers to these questions we can enumerate several interesting possible explanations: 1) It’s not aliens, sightings do not represent any real unexplainable physical phenomena, the eyewitnesses have collectively deluded themselves somehow and are not credible, the DoD has allowed them to go public seeing the matter as benign (the “lens glare” hypothesis) 2) It’s not aliens or any unexplainable phenomenon, the eyewitnesses are deluded, but the DoD has let them go public for some ulterior motive, possibly to sow confusion and provide cover for real technologies they are working on (the “useful idiots” hypothesis) 3) It’s not aliens or any advanced technology, maybe it’s even completely fabricated, and the eyewitnesses are involved in a PSYOP. Possibly to delude US adversaries into chasing their tails, or to provide cover for real technologies (the “PSYOP” hypothesis) 4) It’s not aliens, but it is an advanced technology being developed in secret by the US, the eyewitnesses are unaware of the providence of said technologies, and the DoD has let them go public as a PSYOP to sow confusion or to signal capabilities to adversaries (the “skunk works” hypothesis) 5) It is aliens, it is known by governments worldwide, and the DoD has let the eyewitnesses go public because they see it as a benign public good or are not willing or capable of stopping the flow of said information (the “UFO whistleblower” hypothesis) 6) It is aliens, it is unknown by some other governments, and the US wants to sound the alarm, possibly to signal other nations to come forward with their own information and start working on a global strategy for managing the situation (the “Earth defence” hypothesis)

judge2020 4y ago
> - In any case, why is the DoD letting eyewitnesses go public? It seems there is a lot of pressure from high-up in the government to release at least old-enough footage of UAP, given the recent releases of UAP footage[0,1]. 0: https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2165713/statement-by-the-department-of-defense-on-the-release-of-historical-navy-videos/ https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/216571... 1: https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/3491437-watch-new-ufo-footage-declassified-by-the-military/ https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/3491437-watch-n...
- bostonwalker 4y ago
  Right, I think my reasoning still applies whether it's coming from DoD or the White House. We still need to know why because they could have just continued the coverup, it's only since 2019 that they've changed their policy.
vlovich123 4y ago
Spoiler. It’s never aliens
- aliswe 4y ago
  It's always aliens because they are alien
- bostonwalker 4y ago
  It isn't until we rule out 1), 2), 3), and 4)
godelski 4y ago
I don't think people realize how much of our understanding of physics needs to be broken for aliens to be visiting us. Or that these creatures are willing to spend decades or generations away from their planet/home/family. Space is a hell of a lot bigger than people really think. Even several times the speed of light is slow in terms of these interstellar distances.
- ALittleLight 4y ago
  The UFOs could be autonomous, or they could originate from within our solar system.
  - godelski 4y ago
    I wrote a longer post and linked to the sibling comment. Yes, they could be autonomous. But there are still issues with that, specifically with the time for the communication to get back "home." (see sibling comment) This doesn't make things impossible, but it definitely decreases the likelihood. As for within our solar system, I'm fairly certain this isn't true. There would be a crazy amount of effort to hide all that. Like you're hiding an entire civilization from x-rays, visible light, infrared, and radio. A civilization that would be constantly monitored (we pay a lot of attention to local objects). Possible, but these aliens clearly spent a lot of energy and resources to undertake this but have also hidden that resource collection (there's a feedback problem here). Combined with that we aren't sure for mechanisms for life. I'm not going to hold my breath.
    - ALittleLight 4y ago
      Autonomous devices wouldn't need to send signals back home. They might be fully autonomous. Also, I don't think we can rule out aliens within our solar system. An alien civilization beneath the ocean of some moon?
      - godelski 4y ago
        > Autonomous devices wouldn't need to send signals back home. They might be fully autonomous. To... what? Study a civilization and do nothing with the data? > Also, I don't think we can rule out aliens within our solar system. An alien civilization beneath the ocean of some moon? Yeah, we pretty much can. Odds are extremely low. Now, life might exist, but not advanced space fairing life. Those civilizations produce a lot of noise and make drastic changes to their planets (/moons).
ak_111 4y ago
I am surprised you haven't proposed the most likely (and sadly boring) for me: 7) They are not aliens or any unexplainable phenomenon, witnesses are all deluded or victims of things like lens glare and the DoD has let them go public (importantly without stigmatising them) to: a) Encourage others serving at the frontline to come forward when they see UFO in case it is foreign adversarial tech (such as the spy balloon) without worrying of being stigmatised b) satisfy public demand by being as transparent as possible with the situation to prevent further delusion and conspiracy theories in the public.

judge2020 4y ago

> - In any case, why is the DoD letting eyewitnesses go public? It seems there is a lot of pressure from high-up in the government to release at least old-enough footage of UAP, given the recent releases of UAP footage[0,1]. 0: https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2165713/statement-by-the-department-of-defense-on-the-release-of-historical-navy-videos/ https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/216571... 1: https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/3491437-watch-new-ufo-footage-declassified-by-the-military/ https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/3491437-watch-n...

bostonwalker 4y ago
Right, I think my reasoning still applies whether it's coming from DoD or the White House. We still need to know why because they could have just continued the coverup, it's only since 2019 that they've changed their policy.

vlovich123 4y ago

Spoiler. It’s never aliens

aliswe 4y ago
It's always aliens because they are alien
bostonwalker 4y ago
It isn't until we rule out 1), 2), 3), and 4)

godelski 4y ago

I don't think people realize how much of our understanding of physics needs to be broken for aliens to be visiting us. Or that these creatures are willing to spend decades or generations away from their planet/home/family. Space is a hell of a lot bigger than people really think. Even several times the speed of light is slow in terms of these interstellar distances.

ALittleLight 4y ago
The UFOs could be autonomous, or they could originate from within our solar system.
- godelski 4y ago
  I wrote a longer post and linked to the sibling comment. Yes, they could be autonomous. But there are still issues with that, specifically with the time for the communication to get back "home." (see sibling comment) This doesn't make things impossible, but it definitely decreases the likelihood. As for within our solar system, I'm fairly certain this isn't true. There would be a crazy amount of effort to hide all that. Like you're hiding an entire civilization from x-rays, visible light, infrared, and radio. A civilization that would be constantly monitored (we pay a lot of attention to local objects). Possible, but these aliens clearly spent a lot of energy and resources to undertake this but have also hidden that resource collection (there's a feedback problem here). Combined with that we aren't sure for mechanisms for life. I'm not going to hold my breath.
  - ALittleLight 4y ago
    Autonomous devices wouldn't need to send signals back home. They might be fully autonomous. Also, I don't think we can rule out aliens within our solar system. An alien civilization beneath the ocean of some moon?
    - godelski 4y ago
      > Autonomous devices wouldn't need to send signals back home. They might be fully autonomous. To... what? Study a civilization and do nothing with the data? > Also, I don't think we can rule out aliens within our solar system. An alien civilization beneath the ocean of some moon? Yeah, we pretty much can. Odds are extremely low. Now, life might exist, but not advanced space fairing life. Those civilizations produce a lot of noise and make drastic changes to their planets (/moons).

ak_111 4y ago

I am surprised you haven't proposed the most likely (and sadly boring) for me: 7) They are not aliens or any unexplainable phenomenon, witnesses are all deluded or victims of things like lens glare and the DoD has let them go public (importantly without stigmatising them) to: a) Encourage others serving at the frontline to come forward when they see UFO in case it is foreign adversarial tech (such as the spy balloon) without worrying of being stigmatised b) satisfy public demand by being as transparent as possible with the situation to prevent further delusion and conspiracy theories in the public.