4 ms·

This is dumb. Same airship design has been seen around the world for years, https://twitter.com/BalloonSciDan/status/1479218147098038278 https://twitter.com/Ba

This is dumb. Same airship design has been seen around the world for years, https://twitter.com/BalloonSciDan/status/1479218147098038278 https://twitter.com/BalloonSciDan/status/1479218147098038278 There are many companies building and launching balloon airships of similar size. The US weather service alone puts hundreds of balloons over China, https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/radiosondes https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/radiosondes

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
hackerlight 4y ago
I probably agree. Allowing the rival to surveil you to an extent is not a bad thing. You want to reduce informational asymmetries because rival leadership often fills in the fog of war with assumptions of malevolence which then leads to escalation risk. It's a tale as old as time in the history of geopolitics and cold war rivalries. The fact they shot down the balloon after it left airspace rather than just as it entered suggests it was a response to the jingoistic media circus and domestic politicking, ie not wanting to look weak compared to hawkish Republicans, rather than anything with a real calculated military purpose.
- seanmcdirmid 4y ago
  Shooting a balloon down over land risks having it come down on someone. Though there really isn’t a lot in Kansas/Nebraska/South Dakota, they would probably not have gotten unlucky, but if they did the Republicans would have pounced also.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - hackerlight 4y ago
    Why couldn't they shoot it down before it flew over land but after if flew into airspace? What is the national security benefit of waiting for it to fly over the country first? My guess is they hoped it would pass over mostly unnoticed but then they saw people picking up on it and decided they had to get in front of the news story so as to not look incompetent. Then once the news story picked up steam their hand was forced by the jingoistic media circus and domestic political reality to take action.
    - seanmcdirmid 4y ago
      We didn’t notice it first, Canada did. And the Canadians would definitely not let us shoot it down over BC.
pstrateman 4y ago
China is quite obviously lying about this being a weather balloon. You can see in the video about the NOAA weather balloons how small they are. The balloon that was just shot down was huge and was being actively maneuvered.
- georgeg23 4y ago
  There are so many companies building airship prototypes of similar scale, Occam's Razor suggests its benign. It's like seeing your first satellite and being convinced it must be military.. This isn't the Sputnik era of ballooning by any stretch. https://aviationoutlook.com/airship-manufacturers/ https://aviationoutlook.com/airship-manufacturers/
  - pstrateman 4y ago
    So you think that a private company produced a high altitude airship prototype that just happened to go on a journey thousands of miles across the world and over a number of us military installations? I genuinely cannot understand how you think that's a simpler explanation than it being a surveillance platform. (btw the chinese press tried to claim that it's a weather balloon, an obvious lie)
    - georgeg23 4y ago
      It didn't go "hover over" military installations. It went over the Rocky Mountains. Pretty much any balloon that crosses the US would go over "military installations" especially when USG can't confirm where these installations are even located (they therefore must suggested that it did, game theoretically).
  - pimlottc 4y ago
    Wouldn't any legitimate airship have some sort of required transponder or tracking beacon? If that had failed, wouldn't a responsible company step forward and identify themselves once it became an national security incident?
throwawaylinux 4y ago
This is dumb because other balloons exist? Please elaborate. What is dumb, and what do these other balloons signify? The government and DoD said it is a Chinese surveillance balloon. Do you disagree with that? Or with the decision to shoot it down? Or what?

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

hackerlight 4y ago

I probably agree. Allowing the rival to surveil you to an extent is not a bad thing. You want to reduce informational asymmetries because rival leadership often fills in the fog of war with assumptions of malevolence which then leads to escalation risk. It's a tale as old as time in the history of geopolitics and cold war rivalries. The fact they shot down the balloon after it left airspace rather than just as it entered suggests it was a response to the jingoistic media circus and domestic politicking, ie not wanting to look weak compared to hawkish Republicans, rather than anything with a real calculated military purpose.

seanmcdirmid 4y ago
Shooting a balloon down over land risks having it come down on someone. Though there really isn’t a lot in Kansas/Nebraska/South Dakota, they would probably not have gotten unlucky, but if they did the Republicans would have pounced also.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- hackerlight 4y ago
  Why couldn't they shoot it down before it flew over land but after if flew into airspace? What is the national security benefit of waiting for it to fly over the country first? My guess is they hoped it would pass over mostly unnoticed but then they saw people picking up on it and decided they had to get in front of the news story so as to not look incompetent. Then once the news story picked up steam their hand was forced by the jingoistic media circus and domestic political reality to take action.
  - seanmcdirmid 4y ago
    We didn’t notice it first, Canada did. And the Canadians would definitely not let us shoot it down over BC.

pstrateman 4y ago

China is quite obviously lying about this being a weather balloon. You can see in the video about the NOAA weather balloons how small they are. The balloon that was just shot down was huge and was being actively maneuvered.

georgeg23 4y ago
There are so many companies building airship prototypes of similar scale, Occam's Razor suggests its benign. It's like seeing your first satellite and being convinced it must be military.. This isn't the Sputnik era of ballooning by any stretch. https://aviationoutlook.com/airship-manufacturers/ https://aviationoutlook.com/airship-manufacturers/
- pstrateman 4y ago
  So you think that a private company produced a high altitude airship prototype that just happened to go on a journey thousands of miles across the world and over a number of us military installations? I genuinely cannot understand how you think that's a simpler explanation than it being a surveillance platform. (btw the chinese press tried to claim that it's a weather balloon, an obvious lie)
  - georgeg23 4y ago
    It didn't go "hover over" military installations. It went over the Rocky Mountains. Pretty much any balloon that crosses the US would go over "military installations" especially when USG can't confirm where these installations are even located (they therefore must suggested that it did, game theoretically).
- pimlottc 4y ago
  Wouldn't any legitimate airship have some sort of required transponder or tracking beacon? If that had failed, wouldn't a responsible company step forward and identify themselves once it became an national security incident?

throwawaylinux 4y ago

This is dumb because other balloons exist? Please elaborate. What is dumb, and what do these other balloons signify? The government and DoD said it is a Chinese surveillance balloon. Do you disagree with that? Or with the decision to shoot it down? Or what?