7 ms·

US plans to fully cut off Huawei from chip suppliers

39 points by CHB0403085482 4y ago

dtx1 4y ago
Doesn't that make a conflict in Taiwan more likely? I understand the national interest of the west here but it doesn't look like a good solution if the result is war over taiwan.
- throwaway4good 4y ago
  Yep but what if that is the idea?
  - dtx1 4y ago
    Than it's a bad one
pjmlp 4y ago
This will boost adoption of non US chips by everyone else, and eventually other non US based technologies as well, as other companies take care not to be the next one on the target line. We are back at the PGP export regulations days.
- profstasiak 4y ago
  there really aren't that many players worldwide. The US and allies control chip making and can choke anyone at least for now. It would be economically unsustainable for most of the countries, the only one that can even dream of producing their own chips is China, but still it will take decades to catch up with modern Western chips. NATOs GDP is 45% of world GDP. Add to that Japan (3.4%) Australia (0.9%) and South Korea (1.9%) and you have half of world GDP. How can you compete with this block technologically?
  - csomar 4y ago
    The size of the GDP is really just a part of it. Indonesia for example has a high gdp ($1 trillion+) but Switzerland or The Netherlands can make tech that they can't, currently, produce. So it's not like it's half gdp, half the power. It's more like 80% power. I think some regional players (middle-east like UAE and Saudi Arabia) have enjoyed some playing field in this Russia war because of the circumstances. This might make it look that they have "power" but they don't. Once things calm down, they'll probably regret these decisions.
  - Dalewyn 4y ago
    >the only one that can even dream of producing their own chips is China, but still it will take decades to catch up with modern Western chips. The reason behind China pushing so hard for RISC-V should be bloody obvious to anyone paying even remote attention to the recent goings on. The question is whether the west hands China the keys (yet again) by obliging (yet again) their underhanded attempts.
    - guntherhermann 4y ago
      What does ISA have to do with semiconductors? RISC-V is an open ISA, I would have thought that chip fabbing and ISAs are effectively unrelated (the ISA might determine the layout of the silicon but it's not like x86-64 is drastically different... it's all NANDs, right?) I don't think the "it's IP" argument would hold up, as historically China & CCP don't really care about IP
      - Dalewyn 4y ago
        x86 and ARM are western technologies, technologies superior to RISC-V that China won't be able to access soon (or even right now), acts of espionage aside, with the semiconductor economic sanctions ramping up. China pushing RISC-V is because they see the writing on the wall and want /something/ that can replace x86 and ARM at relatively low cost, effort, and time; both domestically (to satisfy their own needs) and globally (to once again conquer the world economically). My personal hope is RISC-V doesn't obtain success and continues as the irrelevant ISA it is today. The true motives behind wider RISC-V adoption do not align with western interests.
- flangola7 4y ago
  TPUs were added to the control list last year
profstasiak 4y ago
China imports more chips as a country than it imports oil. Chips are what the future struggle between USA and West vs China is going to be. Amazing book about this is Chip Wars by Chris Miller. Chips rule the modern warfare. Why is Russia attacking so many civilian buildings? Part of it might be terrorism, but I think bigger story is that they got starved of chips and precision rockets. Javelins that helped Ukrainians stop the war at the beginning, each have 200 modern chips inside. The struggle of having modern chips is only going to increase, with more and more weapons becoming full of AI systems. Will China be able to survive chip choke? It's high on their list to improve their capabilities in production, and I believe one of the major goals before they can afford to invade Taiwan
- amelius 4y ago
  Isn't it easy for Russia to order US chips with e.g. China as the middleman?
  - hef19898 4y ago
    No, because those at least dual chips are not sold to China. Export Control exists for this very reason.
  - throwaway4good 4y ago
    If you look at say an Iranian drone it is full with US commodity chips. Possible sold directly or indirectly through maybe Turkey, Pakistan, China.
    - amelius 4y ago
      Suddenly a backdoor in US chips sounds like an attractive option.
      - throwaway4good 4y ago
        These chips are too simple and too cheap for that. We are talking about controller chips that are sold for a few dollars, 20 years old designs and produced in the millions. On the other hand, the Qualcomm special order soc mentioned in the article, I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a back door in that.
roenxi 4y ago
I dunno, you look at what China has accomplished the last 30 years and I struggle to see this being effective in the mid- to long- term. Economics has a funny way favouring people who are more willing to let the market work. The US government is sitting more in the passengers seat here than the short term policy power they have suggests. The Chinese will only do badly here if the Chinese Communist Party does something stupid (so, to be fair, there are reasonable odds that they will disembowel their own tech industry in a few years).
- solumunus 4y ago
  China "let the market work"? What on earth am I reading.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - roenxi 4y ago
    Counting second order effects of government spending, the US government probably already controls most of the US economy. The bar for China being a more effective free market is lower than you might think, in practice. They've achieved remarkable results by focusing on making things the world wants, and upskilling. It could plausibly go either way on the chip thing.
throwaway4good 4y ago
I am struggling to make sense of this; if you go to a German mediamarkt (biggest electronic store here) Huawei still have a sizable presence with nice Intel based laptops and more curious android open source phones. All using American chips. This ban will kill this off. Why now? Seems to be driven by internal US politics or perhaps a preparation for next meeting between US and Chinese officials (which seems to be going worse and worse on purpose). Alternatively the US sees a strategic threat from Huawei’s HarmonyOS, which if it gets popular, and it requires good hardware to get popular, will be the first real non-US consumer operating system.
lost_tourist 4y ago
Won't intermediate companies in other countries just buy them and turn around and sell to China?

39 points by CHB0403085482 4y ago

dtx1 4y ago

Doesn't that make a conflict in Taiwan more likely? I understand the national interest of the west here but it doesn't look like a good solution if the result is war over taiwan.

throwaway4good 4y ago
Yep but what if that is the idea?
- dtx1 4y ago
  Than it's a bad one

pjmlp 4y ago

This will boost adoption of non US chips by everyone else, and eventually other non US based technologies as well, as other companies take care not to be the next one on the target line. We are back at the PGP export regulations days.

profstasiak 4y ago
there really aren't that many players worldwide. The US and allies control chip making and can choke anyone at least for now. It would be economically unsustainable for most of the countries, the only one that can even dream of producing their own chips is China, but still it will take decades to catch up with modern Western chips. NATOs GDP is 45% of world GDP. Add to that Japan (3.4%) Australia (0.9%) and South Korea (1.9%) and you have half of world GDP. How can you compete with this block technologically?
- csomar 4y ago
  The size of the GDP is really just a part of it. Indonesia for example has a high gdp ($1 trillion+) but Switzerland or The Netherlands can make tech that they can't, currently, produce. So it's not like it's half gdp, half the power. It's more like 80% power. I think some regional players (middle-east like UAE and Saudi Arabia) have enjoyed some playing field in this Russia war because of the circumstances. This might make it look that they have "power" but they don't. Once things calm down, they'll probably regret these decisions.
- Dalewyn 4y ago
  >the only one that can even dream of producing their own chips is China, but still it will take decades to catch up with modern Western chips. The reason behind China pushing so hard for RISC-V should be bloody obvious to anyone paying even remote attention to the recent goings on. The question is whether the west hands China the keys (yet again) by obliging (yet again) their underhanded attempts.
  - guntherhermann 4y ago
    What does ISA have to do with semiconductors? RISC-V is an open ISA, I would have thought that chip fabbing and ISAs are effectively unrelated (the ISA might determine the layout of the silicon but it's not like x86-64 is drastically different... it's all NANDs, right?) I don't think the "it's IP" argument would hold up, as historically China & CCP don't really care about IP
    - Dalewyn 4y ago
      x86 and ARM are western technologies, technologies superior to RISC-V that China won't be able to access soon (or even right now), acts of espionage aside, with the semiconductor economic sanctions ramping up. China pushing RISC-V is because they see the writing on the wall and want /something/ that can replace x86 and ARM at relatively low cost, effort, and time; both domestically (to satisfy their own needs) and globally (to once again conquer the world economically). My personal hope is RISC-V doesn't obtain success and continues as the irrelevant ISA it is today. The true motives behind wider RISC-V adoption do not align with western interests.
flangola7 4y ago
TPUs were added to the control list last year

profstasiak 4y ago

China imports more chips as a country than it imports oil. Chips are what the future struggle between USA and West vs China is going to be. Amazing book about this is Chip Wars by Chris Miller. Chips rule the modern warfare. Why is Russia attacking so many civilian buildings? Part of it might be terrorism, but I think bigger story is that they got starved of chips and precision rockets. Javelins that helped Ukrainians stop the war at the beginning, each have 200 modern chips inside. The struggle of having modern chips is only going to increase, with more and more weapons becoming full of AI systems. Will China be able to survive chip choke? It's high on their list to improve their capabilities in production, and I believe one of the major goals before they can afford to invade Taiwan

amelius 4y ago
Isn't it easy for Russia to order US chips with e.g. China as the middleman?
- hef19898 4y ago
  No, because those at least dual chips are not sold to China. Export Control exists for this very reason.
- throwaway4good 4y ago
  If you look at say an Iranian drone it is full with US commodity chips. Possible sold directly or indirectly through maybe Turkey, Pakistan, China.
  - amelius 4y ago
    Suddenly a backdoor in US chips sounds like an attractive option.
    - throwaway4good 4y ago
      These chips are too simple and too cheap for that. We are talking about controller chips that are sold for a few dollars, 20 years old designs and produced in the millions. On the other hand, the Qualcomm special order soc mentioned in the article, I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a back door in that.

roenxi 4y ago

I dunno, you look at what China has accomplished the last 30 years and I struggle to see this being effective in the mid- to long- term. Economics has a funny way favouring people who are more willing to let the market work. The US government is sitting more in the passengers seat here than the short term policy power they have suggests. The Chinese will only do badly here if the Chinese Communist Party does something stupid (so, to be fair, there are reasonable odds that they will disembowel their own tech industry in a few years).

solumunus 4y ago
China "let the market work"? What on earth am I reading.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- roenxi 4y ago
  Counting second order effects of government spending, the US government probably already controls most of the US economy. The bar for China being a more effective free market is lower than you might think, in practice. They've achieved remarkable results by focusing on making things the world wants, and upskilling. It could plausibly go either way on the chip thing.

throwaway4good 4y ago

I am struggling to make sense of this; if you go to a German mediamarkt (biggest electronic store here) Huawei still have a sizable presence with nice Intel based laptops and more curious android open source phones. All using American chips. This ban will kill this off. Why now? Seems to be driven by internal US politics or perhaps a preparation for next meeting between US and Chinese officials (which seems to be going worse and worse on purpose). Alternatively the US sees a strategic threat from Huawei’s HarmonyOS, which if it gets popular, and it requires good hardware to get popular, will be the first real non-US consumer operating system.

lost_tourist 4y ago

Won't intermediate companies in other countries just buy them and turn around and sell to China?