There are more than just cancellations and downgrades to consider. Netflix will make money from people who pay for their own accounts and from their new revenu

There are more than just cancellations and downgrades to consider. Netflix will make money from people who pay for their own accounts and from their new revenue stream of ads. There's also a very noticeable image quality difference between 4k and 720p, so there's no reason to assume the basic plan is what everyone will downgrade to like yourself.