5 ms·

Intel's 'historic collapse' erases $8B from market value

76 points by nreece 4y ago

strangattractor 4y ago
Glad I'm the the CEO on watch when that happened:) Time for them to step up an ask for a multimillion $ pay cut in recognition that they were paid far to generously during a time when the stock was over priced.
- awestroke 4y ago
  You're the CEO of Intel? Nobody ever asks for a pay cut. If anything, they'll do some moronic layoffs get a fat bonus for it
  - m3drano 4y ago
    Tim Cook has.
    - awestroke 4y ago
      No. The board of directors gave Tim Cook feedback on his compensation, he responded with a new compensation level in line with the feedback, the board voted it through, and Tim Cook accepted the decision. It was not on his own initiative.
  - strangattractor 4y ago
    Of course not. I'd never be so clumsy to reveal my secret identity. I did forget that sarcasm gets down voted on HN. My bad:)
    - doctor_eval 4y ago
      Or maybe the typo in your original comment had an impact?
SamReidHughes 4y ago
$30->$27, then $28 by close as it went up with the rest of the market, seems more like a rather ordinary earnings call.
- Sakos 4y ago
  Intel is forecasting a 40% decline in revenue for this quarter and their other challenges are listed in the article. The historic collapse isn't necessarily referring to the share price. The shares recovered because people bought the dip and still believe Intel can fix this. I don't think it says much.
  - SamReidHughes 4y ago
    Well, the shares recovered because the whole market was up like crazy, but the initial 10% decline upon earnings is not historic; that also happened 6 months ago! For what it's worth, I think the "historic collapse" quote from the analyst doesn't refer to the earnings call but the overall decline the past few years, with the rise of AMD, ARM, Apple, TSMC, etc.
- taspeotis 4y ago
  Their share price is up 10% this month, including the price change from the earnings release.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
donmcronald 4y ago
I’m bullish on Intel even with their current struggles. I think owning their own infrastructure will pay off in the future when competitors are getting squeezed by fabs playing supply side economic games.
- 314 4y ago
  What is the long-term future for x86 as it gets squeezed from below by ARM?
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - pjmlp 4y ago
    A quite long one, unless Windows on ARM finally manages to be a success after so many reboots. Even if Windows eventually dies, replaced by something ARM friendly, we are decades away of anything else achieving the same desktop market coverage across the globe.
    - RantyDave 4y ago
      I wouldn't be so sure. Bear in mind that most Windows PC's are in offices and are therefore written down to $0 every three to five years or so, depending on how your accounting goes. Speaking of accounting, halving the power consumption starts to look like it might be a good idea if the computer has a service life of six to ten thousand hours. And Apple have proven that ARM based computers can be better that x86 ones. Suddenly the conditions for replacing the majority of x86 based machines in the world over the next five to ten years start to look quite good.
      - pjc50 4y ago
        The preconditions are "can run the existing Windows apps required at adequate performance" and "can be centrally administered like Windows"; are either of those met yet?
refurb 4y ago
$8B sounds impressive until you realize the company is worth ~$110B.
- doctor_eval 4y ago
  Yeah, well that and Intel made $43B gross profit on $69B in revenue with a 20% margin. And AMD has the same market cap at ~⅓ the revenue and ½ the margin. So… I think what’s I’m saying is that I don’t understand the share market at all ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ INTC https://au.finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTC/key-statistics?.tsrc=applewf https://au.finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTC/key-statistics?.tsrc... AMD https://au.finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/key-statistics?.tsrc=applewf https://au.finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/key-statistics?.tsrc=...
  - jiggawatts 4y ago
    AMD is growing, Intel is shrinking. This expectation is priced in now. For example, the latest Intel server CPU has 60 cores and costs $17K. The equivalent, recently released AMD EPYC processor has 96 cores, costs $12K, and has a higher base clock than the Intel processor’s all-core turbo max clock! AMD will then follow up this brutal left-hook with a 128-core part in the next few months. That’s a knockout. Nobody in their right mind would buy Intel for data centre workloads right now. The only reason anyone still does is that AMD can’t manufacture enough processors to meet demand, and some customers have supplier diversity requirements.
    - ac29 4y ago
      > AMD is growing Growing market share maybe, but revenue and profits were down in the most recent quarter.
blinding-streak 4y ago
AMD now has a higher market cap than Intel. First time that ever happened was in 2022, but was fleeting. It happened again Friday.
ChoGGi 4y ago
Hopefully they get hungry enough to give us better toys.
isignal 4y ago
Their latest generation chips are comparable in value to the AMD equivalent. Power per watt is getting better but not as good as Apple chips. Is the revenue loss mainly because they also seem to be slashing prices to attract market share back? Technology wise their latest generation chips seem to be demonstrating that they can equalize to AMD even with an outdated fab process.
- sagarm 4y ago
  Judging by the massive drop in margin, though, that competitiveness is coming at the cost of a core business metric. Good for consumers, probably not good for Intel.

76 points by nreece 4y ago

Glad I'm the the CEO on watch when that happened:) Time for them to step up an ask for a multimillion $ pay cut in recognition that they were paid far to generously during a time when the stock was over priced.

awestroke 4y ago
You're the CEO of Intel? Nobody ever asks for a pay cut. If anything, they'll do some moronic layoffs get a fat bonus for it
- m3drano 4y ago
  Tim Cook has.
  - awestroke 4y ago
    No. The board of directors gave Tim Cook feedback on his compensation, he responded with a new compensation level in line with the feedback, the board voted it through, and Tim Cook accepted the decision. It was not on his own initiative.
- strangattractor 4y ago
  Of course not. I'd never be so clumsy to reveal my secret identity. I did forget that sarcasm gets down voted on HN. My bad:)
  - doctor_eval 4y ago
    Or maybe the typo in your original comment had an impact?

SamReidHughes 4y ago

$30->$27, then $28 by close as it went up with the rest of the market, seems more like a rather ordinary earnings call.

Sakos 4y ago
Intel is forecasting a 40% decline in revenue for this quarter and their other challenges are listed in the article. The historic collapse isn't necessarily referring to the share price. The shares recovered because people bought the dip and still believe Intel can fix this. I don't think it says much.
- SamReidHughes 4y ago
  Well, the shares recovered because the whole market was up like crazy, but the initial 10% decline upon earnings is not historic; that also happened 6 months ago! For what it's worth, I think the "historic collapse" quote from the analyst doesn't refer to the earnings call but the overall decline the past few years, with the rise of AMD, ARM, Apple, TSMC, etc.
taspeotis 4y ago
Their share price is up 10% this month, including the price change from the earnings release.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

donmcronald 4y ago

I’m bullish on Intel even with their current struggles. I think owning their own infrastructure will pay off in the future when competitors are getting squeezed by fabs playing supply side economic games.

314 4y ago
What is the long-term future for x86 as it gets squeezed from below by ARM?
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- pjmlp 4y ago
  A quite long one, unless Windows on ARM finally manages to be a success after so many reboots. Even if Windows eventually dies, replaced by something ARM friendly, we are decades away of anything else achieving the same desktop market coverage across the globe.
  - RantyDave 4y ago
    I wouldn't be so sure. Bear in mind that most Windows PC's are in offices and are therefore written down to $0 every three to five years or so, depending on how your accounting goes. Speaking of accounting, halving the power consumption starts to look like it might be a good idea if the computer has a service life of six to ten thousand hours. And Apple have proven that ARM based computers can be better that x86 ones. Suddenly the conditions for replacing the majority of x86 based machines in the world over the next five to ten years start to look quite good.
    - pjc50 4y ago
      The preconditions are "can run the existing Windows apps required at adequate performance" and "can be centrally administered like Windows"; are either of those met yet?

refurb 4y ago

$8B sounds impressive until you realize the company is worth ~$110B.

doctor_eval 4y ago
Yeah, well that and Intel made $43B gross profit on $69B in revenue with a 20% margin. And AMD has the same market cap at ~⅓ the revenue and ½ the margin. So… I think what’s I’m saying is that I don’t understand the share market at all ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ INTC https://au.finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTC/key-statistics?.tsrc=applewf https://au.finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTC/key-statistics?.tsrc... AMD https://au.finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/key-statistics?.tsrc=applewf https://au.finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/key-statistics?.tsrc=...
- jiggawatts 4y ago
  AMD is growing, Intel is shrinking. This expectation is priced in now. For example, the latest Intel server CPU has 60 cores and costs $17K. The equivalent, recently released AMD EPYC processor has 96 cores, costs $12K, and has a higher base clock than the Intel processor’s all-core turbo max clock! AMD will then follow up this brutal left-hook with a 128-core part in the next few months. That’s a knockout. Nobody in their right mind would buy Intel for data centre workloads right now. The only reason anyone still does is that AMD can’t manufacture enough processors to meet demand, and some customers have supplier diversity requirements.
  - ac29 4y ago
    > AMD is growing Growing market share maybe, but revenue and profits were down in the most recent quarter.

blinding-streak 4y ago

AMD now has a higher market cap than Intel. First time that ever happened was in 2022, but was fleeting. It happened again Friday.

ChoGGi 4y ago

Hopefully they get hungry enough to give us better toys.

isignal 4y ago

Their latest generation chips are comparable in value to the AMD equivalent. Power per watt is getting better but not as good as Apple chips. Is the revenue loss mainly because they also seem to be slashing prices to attract market share back? Technology wise their latest generation chips seem to be demonstrating that they can equalize to AMD even with an outdated fab process.

sagarm 4y ago
Judging by the massive drop in margin, though, that competitiveness is coming at the cost of a core business metric. Good for consumers, probably not good for Intel.