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“The ageing of the population accounts for the loss of 1.9m workers (0.7% of people aged at least 16), while the overall drop in lfp, mainly among the old, is r
by ianai 4y ago
“The ageing of the population accounts for the loss of 1.9m workers (0.7% of people aged at least 16), while the overall drop in lfp, mainly among the old, is responsible for a further 0.5m (0.2%).”
“In 2022 an average of 1.6m Americans missed at least one week of work per month to recuperate—whether from covid, flu or something else—up from 1m before covid.”
In short, the people likely to retire did it in response to Covid at increased levels. And illness (still including covid) has increased work absenteeism by 60%.
They did mention “quiet quitting” but to my eye more in passing-it’s clearly not the driver and they seem to admit it with a limp mention of it. “most quiet quitters are high-earning workers, whereas the biggest labour shortages have been in basic service jobs”
- cratermoon 4y agoOne of the economic calculations I learned many years ago was about two-income families with young kids. If both parents work, and the kids are too young to be self-sufficient, that requires some kind of day care, which can be expensive. Plus. commuting costs something, too, including the extra cost of maintaining and insuring a second vehicle as well as other costs of ownership. There's also other expenses and tax implications in a two-income family. In short, it turns out that the total after-tax disposable income for a dual earner family can end up being less than if just one person, the better-paid one, works, and the other takes care of the kids and handles other family things. Which brings me to my question: how many people quit or lost a job and discovered that they were better off and happier when one person worked than when both? I'd like to see some studies about that.
- hadlock 4y agoAbout a third of people over 55 I've talked to in the last three years decided to go ahead and retire. Covid is usually two weeks from infection to recovery (seems to get 80% of the population once per year), and 30% of employees have "brain fog" for another 2 weeks - 6 months after. 1% of the population died across 2020-2021. These aren't small numbers.
- cratermoon 4y agoNo doubt that retirements are a big factor. I've been on a contract with an airline and am told that they had lots of folks peace out. Lots of institutional knowledge walked out the door, too.
- nonethewiser 4y agoThere should really be much larger tax breaks for having children. Dont just blunt the cost.
- etempleton 4y agoIf the goal is to increase population at a higher rate significant tax breaks would certainly help, though perhaps not enough. Immigration also needs to be examined.
- nonethewiser 4y agoThere is no shortage of immigrant supply though. The US is already using immigration to grow.
- randomdata 4y agoWhich means that there is no mass benefit to producing children domestically. There is individual benefit to producing children domestically, sure, but why would the masses care to provide for the benefit of an individual?
- cudgy 4y agoSo that the masses are supported by the younger when they retire through contributions to public pension like social security?
- randomdata 4y agoThe comment before just got finished saying that there is an endless supply of immigrants willing to do that…
- cudgy 4y agoAn endless supply? Other countries require workers to support their elderly as well. Are the immigrants going to leave their elderly behind to starve and suffer with no support from their younger generations? Or will they bring their elderly with them, nullifying the benefits?
- scarface74 4y agoIt’s not just that. There are a lot of dual income workers who are only able to work because of the free labor of older relatives - grandparents. They not only died at a higher rate, older relatives would be and should be reticent to have constant contact with kids that have been at school half the day.
- cratermoon 4y agoThat's a thoughtful point. I'm sure many families found things much more difficult without free daycare/childcare.
- etempleton 4y agoSome, perhaps, but make no mistake that most families with kids find it absolutely required to have two incomes these days. I would even say the increase in participation by women have helped stave off the labor shortage, but it was always coming. The baby boomer generation is finally retiring. They worked longer than any other generation and they now hold most of the wealth. Caring for this generation is going to be a massive challenge. Nurses are already at a premium and it is going to get worse. There aren’t going to be enough nurses, teachers, cashiers, servers, etc. Any job that is tough and is traditionally underpaid will have to increase wages to compete or, and this is sadly more likely, standards will be lowered. This has already happened with teachers. Not enough teachers, no problem! Degree optional. There are two potential solutions: 1. Increase wages for less desirable jobs to increase labor participation. 2. Relax immigration policy to increase immigration.
- randomdata 4y ago> They worked longer than any other generation Have they really? They are working into older age it would appear, but they also were the first generation to meaningfully delay going to work, opting to go to school instead. The previous generation maybe made it to 8th grade, after which to work they went. Before that, you went to work as soon as your body enabled it.
- cudgy 4y agoSure. They worked at the family farm in the same household along with multiple generations.