3 ms·
If you define it by the idea that it doesn’t exist, that’s maybe too easy? I’m fine to say that we are on a logistic curve not endlessly exponential. Rather t
by dr_dshiv 4y ago
If you define it by the idea that it doesn’t exist, that’s maybe too easy?
I’m fine to say that we are on a logistic curve not endlessly exponential.
Rather than viewing it in religious terms, I think it is a matter of risk management. What sort of big things might happen that matter in the next 5 years?
I don’t expect to be able to out-rat rats—- there is no incentive. But, to out-human humans—there is incentive.
- nradov 4y agoIf you want to look at it from a risk management perspective then some big things that might happen in the next 5 years include a nuclear war, major worldwide economic depression, or a serious pandemic. Those risks are more likely to impact us than any sort of science fiction singularity scenario. Trying to manage every possible unlikely risk is just a pointless waste of time. Don't get too hung up on rats. The point is that any development of a true human-level AGI will probably have to start with a subhuman-level AGI and then move up in stages. At this point we're still at a very low stage in that process regardless of which real-world equivalent you want to compare against.
- dr_dshiv 4y agoDo you use GPT3? I do on a daily basis and I’m continually blown away by its capabilities. Like, it helps me write scientific papers. It helps me with quantum computing issues and it helps me write letters to my wife. Further, it is getting better exponentially faster. What can I say…
- nradov 4y agoSure I use it. It's a useful productivity tool for some tasks but there's no evidence that it represents progress toward AGI.