4 ms·

There are a lot of hucksters in this area but I think some of the investments will produce good results. It’s definitely better to pour VC money into longevity

There are a lot of hucksters in this area but I think some of the investments will produce good results. It’s definitely better to pour VC money into longevity research vs “Uber for X” or blockchain.

mountainriver 4y ago
100% the blockchain isn't needed for much, but longevity and AI are actually really useful to humans
- abraxas 4y ago
  The whole blockchain ecosystem is basically an instantiation of Bostrom's Paperclip Maximizer running on a hybrid human/machine topology.
  - willmorrison 4y ago
    Can you explain more what you mean?
    - jack_pp 4y ago
      I think he's saying it took a life of its own and its incentives are destructive to mankind. I disagree but I can see how you could make the argument, supposing you think bitcoin has no use / value and that smart contracts are just a fad. But maximalists have their own arguments regarding the use of blockchain and while a lot of the rhetoric isn't believable I do think blockchain tech will be +EV in the future even if most don't believe it already is.
    - abraxas 4y ago
      Basically it is a purposeless algorithm that saps resources for useless computations, that is only interesting insofar as it can sometimes perform sophisticated optimizations albeit in pursuit of a trivially useless goal. Zoom out and think of the entire blockchain algorithm at a level above the incentives of a singular agent. It's very much like having a superhuman Paperclip maximizer that has a invented amazing techniques of say, iron ore extraction but this localized advance is squandered in pursuit of an absurd goal of creating the maximum possible volume of paperclips. Of course there is not a single agent on earth who pursues bitcoin mining with the goal of wasting energy and compute resources but it is the aggregate end result. Bostrom similarly argues the the objective function of a complex system such as an AGI may drift entirely from its original intent leading it to optimize for things we absolutely do not desire and this malignant drift is an emergent property. The similarities to blockchain are uncanny.
- Heronymus_Anon 4y ago
  Mildly disagree. Problem with blockchain is that masses are focused on financial uses, whereas I think lots of the potential is in liquid tools for self-organizing, something ~ like zeroknowledge privacy protecting data mining. So essentially tools that are not really meant for big business or fast money schemes, but for social transformation useful for humans (and AIs). It may raise the quality not the quantity of your years. (..of course raising both would be appreciated ; ))
  - stevofolife 4y ago
    Totally agree. Do you know any companies or projects in this space? Or in federated learning / differential privacy using blockchain? Tons of use cases can be enabled by them.
  - coffeebeqn 4y ago
    I don’t think there will be zero actual crypto use cases. I just think dumping billions more in VC money to that stack is a bad idea at this point. And that the current “crypto industry” Is pretty much a scam/gambling. Maybe some kind of escrow, maybe privacy.. stuff. Whenever I ask people what the real crypto projects are they still give a very abstract handwavy buzzword-heavy answer like you just did
  - mountainriver 4y ago
    I do think there is potential in blockchain, I just don't think its actually needed in most situations. Zero trust is an interesting tool for a limited set of use cases, much of what I see being built on the blockchain could just be a web service with a legal guarantee, which would make it more efficient and cheaper, the majority of people would care less about the implementation.
api 4y ago
Haven’t there always been hucksters in medicine generally? Seems like any field that is hard for lay people to understand and has a lot of money in it naturally attracts con artists for obvious reasons.
- inglor_cz 4y ago
  Even big pharma is sometimes guilty of huckstering, see aducanumab, the recently approved treatment for Alzheimer's that does not actually seem to treat symptoms of Alzheimer patients at all. https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/11/04/nothing-is-right-about-the-approval-of-aducanumab-and-nothings-new/ https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/11/04/nothing-is-right-about-...
vasco 4y ago
If "longevity" worked, wouldn't it be medicine?
- ben_w 4y ago
  That's been the explicitly stated goal for at least some of the researchers. Lots of the expensive stuff is also age-related, the money is in the disease rather than the aging itself, so try to treat the disease by reversing that specific aspect of aging… At least, that's how the articles about how "we know this field has a reputation for scammers but we're legit honest" phrased it. With a GCSE grade C in biology, I can't tell what's a scam and what's a legitimate breakthrough, and I'm also mindful of the Gell Mann Amnesia Effect.
- SkyMarshal 4y ago
  You can probably say that about all medicine before it became medicine.
- jjk166 4y ago
  Yes, in the same way that if "cancer research" worked it would be medicine.
- nostromo 4y ago
  Unfortunately not, according to the FDA. Which is terrible. It means that there are all sorts of barriers in place to developing drugs or therapies that prevent or reverse aging -- because you couldn't get FDA approval for something that it doesn't consider disease. It’s hard to even get the studies approved. More details: https://www.wsj.com/articles/scientists-new-goal-growing-old-without-disease-1426542180 https://www.wsj.com/articles/scientists-new-goal-growing-old... https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/10/19/1061070/is-old-age-a-disease/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/10/19/1061070/is-old-a...
  - philipkglass 4y ago
    It means that there are all sorts of barriers in place to developing drugs or therapies that prevent or reverse aging -- because you couldn't get FDA approval for something that it doesn't consider disease. I don't see how that is a significant barrier to an anti-aging drug that actually works. Pick any one of the many recognized medical conditions that is strongly correlated with old age, like osteoporosis. Prove that your anti-aging drug effectively and safely treats osteoporosis in the elderly. The FDA will approve it. If your osteoporosis treatment also cures wrinkles and gray hair as a side effect, the FDA won't object. And once the drug is approved for one condition it can be prescribed by off-label for other conditions. Everyone will quickly learn what it's useful for, just like how people started using semaglutide for weight loss when it was "officially" still just a diabetes treatment.
john_alan 4y ago
Tell me more about the future.
seydor 4y ago
But will people invest in my ICO that will fund the Uber for longevity?

mountainriver 4y ago

100% the blockchain isn't needed for much, but longevity and AI are actually really useful to humans

abraxas 4y ago
The whole blockchain ecosystem is basically an instantiation of Bostrom's Paperclip Maximizer running on a hybrid human/machine topology.
- willmorrison 4y ago
  Can you explain more what you mean?
  - jack_pp 4y ago
    I think he's saying it took a life of its own and its incentives are destructive to mankind. I disagree but I can see how you could make the argument, supposing you think bitcoin has no use / value and that smart contracts are just a fad. But maximalists have their own arguments regarding the use of blockchain and while a lot of the rhetoric isn't believable I do think blockchain tech will be +EV in the future even if most don't believe it already is.
  - abraxas 4y ago
    Basically it is a purposeless algorithm that saps resources for useless computations, that is only interesting insofar as it can sometimes perform sophisticated optimizations albeit in pursuit of a trivially useless goal. Zoom out and think of the entire blockchain algorithm at a level above the incentives of a singular agent. It's very much like having a superhuman Paperclip maximizer that has a invented amazing techniques of say, iron ore extraction but this localized advance is squandered in pursuit of an absurd goal of creating the maximum possible volume of paperclips. Of course there is not a single agent on earth who pursues bitcoin mining with the goal of wasting energy and compute resources but it is the aggregate end result. Bostrom similarly argues the the objective function of a complex system such as an AGI may drift entirely from its original intent leading it to optimize for things we absolutely do not desire and this malignant drift is an emergent property. The similarities to blockchain are uncanny.
Heronymus_Anon 4y ago
Mildly disagree. Problem with blockchain is that masses are focused on financial uses, whereas I think lots of the potential is in liquid tools for self-organizing, something ~ like zeroknowledge privacy protecting data mining. So essentially tools that are not really meant for big business or fast money schemes, but for social transformation useful for humans (and AIs). It may raise the quality not the quantity of your years. (..of course raising both would be appreciated ; ))
- stevofolife 4y ago
  Totally agree. Do you know any companies or projects in this space? Or in federated learning / differential privacy using blockchain? Tons of use cases can be enabled by them.
- coffeebeqn 4y ago
  I don’t think there will be zero actual crypto use cases. I just think dumping billions more in VC money to that stack is a bad idea at this point. And that the current “crypto industry” Is pretty much a scam/gambling. Maybe some kind of escrow, maybe privacy.. stuff. Whenever I ask people what the real crypto projects are they still give a very abstract handwavy buzzword-heavy answer like you just did
- mountainriver 4y ago
  I do think there is potential in blockchain, I just don't think its actually needed in most situations. Zero trust is an interesting tool for a limited set of use cases, much of what I see being built on the blockchain could just be a web service with a legal guarantee, which would make it more efficient and cheaper, the majority of people would care less about the implementation.

api 4y ago

Haven’t there always been hucksters in medicine generally? Seems like any field that is hard for lay people to understand and has a lot of money in it naturally attracts con artists for obvious reasons.

inglor_cz 4y ago
Even big pharma is sometimes guilty of huckstering, see aducanumab, the recently approved treatment for Alzheimer's that does not actually seem to treat symptoms of Alzheimer patients at all. https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/11/04/nothing-is-right-about-the-approval-of-aducanumab-and-nothings-new/ https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/11/04/nothing-is-right-about-...

vasco 4y ago

If "longevity" worked, wouldn't it be medicine?

ben_w 4y ago
That's been the explicitly stated goal for at least some of the researchers. Lots of the expensive stuff is also age-related, the money is in the disease rather than the aging itself, so try to treat the disease by reversing that specific aspect of aging… At least, that's how the articles about how "we know this field has a reputation for scammers but we're legit honest" phrased it. With a GCSE grade C in biology, I can't tell what's a scam and what's a legitimate breakthrough, and I'm also mindful of the Gell Mann Amnesia Effect.
SkyMarshal 4y ago
You can probably say that about all medicine before it became medicine.
jjk166 4y ago
Yes, in the same way that if "cancer research" worked it would be medicine.
nostromo 4y ago
Unfortunately not, according to the FDA. Which is terrible. It means that there are all sorts of barriers in place to developing drugs or therapies that prevent or reverse aging -- because you couldn't get FDA approval for something that it doesn't consider disease. It’s hard to even get the studies approved. More details: https://www.wsj.com/articles/scientists-new-goal-growing-old-without-disease-1426542180 https://www.wsj.com/articles/scientists-new-goal-growing-old... https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/10/19/1061070/is-old-age-a-disease/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/10/19/1061070/is-old-a...
- philipkglass 4y ago
  It means that there are all sorts of barriers in place to developing drugs or therapies that prevent or reverse aging -- because you couldn't get FDA approval for something that it doesn't consider disease. I don't see how that is a significant barrier to an anti-aging drug that actually works. Pick any one of the many recognized medical conditions that is strongly correlated with old age, like osteoporosis. Prove that your anti-aging drug effectively and safely treats osteoporosis in the elderly. The FDA will approve it. If your osteoporosis treatment also cures wrinkles and gray hair as a side effect, the FDA won't object. And once the drug is approved for one condition it can be prescribed by off-label for other conditions. Everyone will quickly learn what it's useful for, just like how people started using semaglutide for weight loss when it was "officially" still just a diabetes treatment.

john_alan 4y ago

Tell me more about the future.

seydor 4y ago

But will people invest in my ICO that will fund the Uber for longevity?