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I'm not so sure AI is as big a threat as Google perceives it to be; back in 2009 the HUGE EXISTENTIAL THREAT was Social, therefore Google+, but that came and we

by titzer 4y ago

I'm not so sure AI is as big a threat as Google perceives it to be; back in 2009 the HUGE EXISTENTIAL THREAT was Social, therefore Google+, but that came and went and Google's growth continued unabated. That said, I do see a place for language-model driven search. And I shudder to think that language models will be specifically coerced, bribed, and have ingrained in their brains only what advertisers want. If you thought the search landscape of the 2020s is fully of SEO'd crap, just wait. Google is not in an enviable position.

danjoredd 4y ago
I honestly don't think that chatgpt will destroy Google either...whenever I use search engines, I use them to find a website I could not remember the name of, locations like restaurants, etc. ChatGPT will be a tool to be used alongside search engines, not a replacement
minsc_and_boo 4y ago
The article also assumes that Google doesn't have it's own chatGPT or other AI irons in the fire right now. Google Assistant dropped a year after Alexa, and Android's reach helped bolster it's marketshare (antitrust investigation or not).
- cpeterso 4y ago
  Like Google's LaMDA: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaMDA https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaMDA
dylan604 4y ago
If Google is so afraid of AI, then they should have done the most Googley of things in building AI into Google to get everyone use to it, then drop it. Deprecate the crap out of it like all of the other things. Then, since Googs dropped, it must not be good right? Boom! problem solved
Zigurd 4y ago
TBF Google found they already owned a first-tier social network. It was disguised as a video sharing site. The article quotes someone as saying history repeats itself. Debatable. Google built Alphabet to be defensible against antitrust cases like this. Expect a consent decree. As you wrote: "I do see a place for language-model driven search." And unlike social media this has less dependency on user perception of whether a social network is cool.
aeturnum 4y ago
I agree about AI, though for slightly different reasons. Google published the foundational paper for some of the most important tech behind the exciting AI stuff[1]. Because there's every reason to believe they are technically capable of competing, the reason they aren't offering AI products is probably based on their beliefs about how practical that is right now (cost / reliability / etc). They also have all their Waymo experience. Basically, I'm not convinced that Google is "behind" on the tech, but just disagrees about product strategy. Obviously there are lots of examples where this dooms the current leader (Xerox Parc!) - but I think it's too early to say? I wouldn't short them yet imo. [1] https://ai.googleblog.com/2017/08/transformer-novel-neural-network.html https://ai.googleblog.com/2017/08/transformer-novel-neural-n...
Groxx 4y ago
It didn't turn out to be existential, but they absolutely lost the Social "war" and it's costing them billions: Facebook owns a large chunk of all ad revenue now, in no small part because of this. Not that I'm complaining - the less that's under a mega-conglomerate, the better things tend to be. But it was and is a gigantic failure for Google, possibly their largest ever.
- minsc_and_boo 4y ago
  >Facebook owns a large chunk of all ad revenue now Facebook rode the wave of open 3P consumer data which is now closing everywhere, from DMA to iOS restrictions. That's why they're trying desperately to pivot to the metaverse, so they can use first party data. Facebook is currently experiencing an existential threat. Social media diminished to algortihmic media (e.g. TikTok) which will likely diminish to AI media sooner rather than later.
  - Groxx 4y ago
    Definitely - fast ecosystem shifts are the nature of social sites and I'm glad the market is re-learning this... to some degree anyway. Google can still point to it and say "billions missed out on" though, and not a single person in the board room will disagree. Meta-wise, I'm glad the acronym is now MANGA, and I have my popcorn ready. The metaverse is the second biggest joke I've seen this much money spent on, second only to NFTs. I quite like VR, but "owning" "the metaverse" is unbelievable nonsense.

by titzer 4y ago

danjoredd 4y ago

I honestly don't think that chatgpt will destroy Google either...whenever I use search engines, I use them to find a website I could not remember the name of, locations like restaurants, etc. ChatGPT will be a tool to be used alongside search engines, not a replacement

minsc_and_boo 4y ago

The article also assumes that Google doesn't have it's own chatGPT or other AI irons in the fire right now. Google Assistant dropped a year after Alexa, and Android's reach helped bolster it's marketshare (antitrust investigation or not).

cpeterso 4y ago
Like Google's LaMDA: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaMDA https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaMDA

dylan604 4y ago

If Google is so afraid of AI, then they should have done the most Googley of things in building AI into Google to get everyone use to it, then drop it. Deprecate the crap out of it like all of the other things. Then, since Googs dropped, it must not be good right? Boom! problem solved

Zigurd 4y ago

TBF Google found they already owned a first-tier social network. It was disguised as a video sharing site. The article quotes someone as saying history repeats itself. Debatable. Google built Alphabet to be defensible against antitrust cases like this. Expect a consent decree. As you wrote: "I do see a place for language-model driven search." And unlike social media this has less dependency on user perception of whether a social network is cool.

aeturnum 4y ago

I agree about AI, though for slightly different reasons. Google published the foundational paper for some of the most important tech behind the exciting AI stuff[1]. Because there's every reason to believe they are technically capable of competing, the reason they aren't offering AI products is probably based on their beliefs about how practical that is right now (cost / reliability / etc). They also have all their Waymo experience. Basically, I'm not convinced that Google is "behind" on the tech, but just disagrees about product strategy. Obviously there are lots of examples where this dooms the current leader (Xerox Parc!) - but I think it's too early to say? I wouldn't short them yet imo. [1] https://ai.googleblog.com/2017/08/transformer-novel-neural-network.html https://ai.googleblog.com/2017/08/transformer-novel-neural-n...

Groxx 4y ago

It didn't turn out to be existential, but they absolutely lost the Social "war" and it's costing them billions: Facebook owns a large chunk of all ad revenue now, in no small part because of this. Not that I'm complaining - the less that's under a mega-conglomerate, the better things tend to be. But it was and is a gigantic failure for Google, possibly their largest ever.

minsc_and_boo 4y ago
>Facebook owns a large chunk of all ad revenue now Facebook rode the wave of open 3P consumer data which is now closing everywhere, from DMA to iOS restrictions. That's why they're trying desperately to pivot to the metaverse, so they can use first party data. Facebook is currently experiencing an existential threat. Social media diminished to algortihmic media (e.g. TikTok) which will likely diminish to AI media sooner rather than later.
- Groxx 4y ago
  Definitely - fast ecosystem shifts are the nature of social sites and I'm glad the market is re-learning this... to some degree anyway. Google can still point to it and say "billions missed out on" though, and not a single person in the board room will disagree. Meta-wise, I'm glad the acronym is now MANGA, and I have my popcorn ready. The metaverse is the second biggest joke I've seen this much money spent on, second only to NFTs. I quite like VR, but "owning" "the metaverse" is unbelievable nonsense.