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>We're far away from AGI, if we even can reach it with our current approaches, but the latest iterations of "AI" are really good at making people believe it'll

>We're far away from AGI, if we even can reach it with our current approaches, but the latest iterations of "AI" are really good at making people believe it'll be there in 2 years This is an incredibly bold prediction that isn't supported by the opinions of the majority of people in the field and certainly doesn't have any real backing other than your gut.

lelanthran 4y ago
> This is an incredibly bold prediction that isn't supported by the opinions of the majority of people in the field Well, DUH! "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it." - Upton Sinclair. The people in the field who are making these promises may even believe it themselves, because their bread and butter comes from it.
- misnome 4y ago
  I would be cautious; we all know what the majority of people in the field of "Selling NFTs" said a year ago - and they were obviously proven right.
- adamsmith143 4y ago
  You have an incredibly dim and pessimistic view of researchers and scientists. They could all easily double or triple their salaries by moving to standard industry but decide to work in Academia or Research Labs. These people on average predict AGI within ~30 years with more than 50% probability. Not sure how that prediction benefits their salary in any meaningful way. If Astronomers were predicting a mass-extinction level asteroid impact for the year 2050 with 50% probability I doubt you would be so cavalier.
  - dragonwriter 4y ago
    > If Astronomers were predicting a mass-extinction level asteroid impact for the year 2050 with 50% probability I doubt you would be so cavalier. “Asteroid extinction” hasn't gone through several rounds of hype of imminence from people working in the field with a financial interest in that perception to extended “winters” as the basis of the last imminence cycle bursts in my lifetime, so... maybe the two things aren't analogous.
  - lelanthran 4y ago
    > These people on average predict AGI within ~30 years with more than 50% probability. I haven't seen that prediction. What I have seen is "AGI is 2 years out", and I have been seeing that for 4 years. Much like the self-driving cars that were (according to the experts in the industry) 5 years out since 2012, and still not here in 2023. Maybe if the experts in the industry were more vocal about how far off they are, you wouldn't be reading comments like mine. > If Astronomers were predicting a mass-extinction level asteroid impact for the year 2050 with 50% probability I doubt you would be so cavalier. if they had been saying, since 2012, that it's five years away, I won't be the only one laughing at them. When it comes to AI, though, the world is a lot more forgiving, and collectively more forgetful of the predictions.
    - adamsmith143 4y ago
      >I haven't seen that prediction. Take your pick: https://nickbostrom.com/papers/survey.pdf https://nickbostrom.com/papers/survey.pdf https://aiimpacts.org/2022-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/ https://aiimpacts.org/2022-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/ https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intelligence-singularity-timing/ https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intellige... https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7JxsXYDuqnKMqa6Eq/ai-timelines-where-the-arguments-and-the-experts-stand https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7JxsXYDuqnKMqa6Eq/... https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-... https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hQysqfSEzciRazx8k/forecasting-thread-ai-timelines#Top_Forecast_Comparisons https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hQysqfSEzciRazx8k/forecastin... >What I have seen is "AGI is 2 years out", and I have been seeing that for 4 years. We obviously don't travel in the same circles because I don't know anyone credible saying that.
marcosdumay 4y ago
Have you seen anybody that works on the field claim that AGI is around the corner? Even the idea that LLMs can eventually get there isn't taken seriously.
- adamsmith143 4y ago
  Plenty of folks in Alignment think things could be very soon indeed. Even the median for AI researchers' estimates is ~30 years.

lelanthran 4y ago

> This is an incredibly bold prediction that isn't supported by the opinions of the majority of people in the field Well, DUH! "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it." - Upton Sinclair. The people in the field who are making these promises may even believe it themselves, because their bread and butter comes from it.

misnome 4y ago
I would be cautious; we all know what the majority of people in the field of "Selling NFTs" said a year ago - and they were obviously proven right.
adamsmith143 4y ago
You have an incredibly dim and pessimistic view of researchers and scientists. They could all easily double or triple their salaries by moving to standard industry but decide to work in Academia or Research Labs. These people on average predict AGI within ~30 years with more than 50% probability. Not sure how that prediction benefits their salary in any meaningful way. If Astronomers were predicting a mass-extinction level asteroid impact for the year 2050 with 50% probability I doubt you would be so cavalier.
- dragonwriter 4y ago
  > If Astronomers were predicting a mass-extinction level asteroid impact for the year 2050 with 50% probability I doubt you would be so cavalier. “Asteroid extinction” hasn't gone through several rounds of hype of imminence from people working in the field with a financial interest in that perception to extended “winters” as the basis of the last imminence cycle bursts in my lifetime, so... maybe the two things aren't analogous.
- lelanthran 4y ago
  > These people on average predict AGI within ~30 years with more than 50% probability. I haven't seen that prediction. What I have seen is "AGI is 2 years out", and I have been seeing that for 4 years. Much like the self-driving cars that were (according to the experts in the industry) 5 years out since 2012, and still not here in 2023. Maybe if the experts in the industry were more vocal about how far off they are, you wouldn't be reading comments like mine. > If Astronomers were predicting a mass-extinction level asteroid impact for the year 2050 with 50% probability I doubt you would be so cavalier. if they had been saying, since 2012, that it's five years away, I won't be the only one laughing at them. When it comes to AI, though, the world is a lot more forgiving, and collectively more forgetful of the predictions.
  - adamsmith143 4y ago
    >I haven't seen that prediction. Take your pick: https://nickbostrom.com/papers/survey.pdf https://nickbostrom.com/papers/survey.pdf https://aiimpacts.org/2022-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/ https://aiimpacts.org/2022-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/ https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intelligence-singularity-timing/ https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intellige... https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7JxsXYDuqnKMqa6Eq/ai-timelines-where-the-arguments-and-the-experts-stand https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7JxsXYDuqnKMqa6Eq/... https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-... https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hQysqfSEzciRazx8k/forecasting-thread-ai-timelines#Top_Forecast_Comparisons https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hQysqfSEzciRazx8k/forecastin... >What I have seen is "AGI is 2 years out", and I have been seeing that for 4 years. We obviously don't travel in the same circles because I don't know anyone credible saying that.

marcosdumay 4y ago

Have you seen anybody that works on the field claim that AGI is around the corner? Even the idea that LLMs can eventually get there isn't taken seriously.

adamsmith143 4y ago
Plenty of folks in Alignment think things could be very soon indeed. Even the median for AI researchers' estimates is ~30 years.