3 ms·

"confidently wrong" That's chatgpt right now. To get it to confidently right will take years and years more

by pxue 4y ago

Rastonbury 4y ago
I saw dallE and GPT-2 demos and though 'oh pretty cool' about a year later we've got stable diffusion that can run on phones and ChatGPT which can remember context. I thought these things would be 3-5 years out or more. The speed of development is so quick, I think confidently right LLM is around the corner In less than a decade, I believe front line support chat support jobs and even graphic artist jobs will be made obselete
- causi 4y ago
  In less than a decade, I believe front line support chat support jobs and even graphic artist jobs will be made obselete We can finally get the eighty hour long book-accurate Lord of the Rings adaptation we deserve. But seriously, I can't wait to feed a novel into one of these things and get a comic book version in return.
- ilaksh 4y ago
  The latest models, with the right setup, can already substitute for many (not all) tasks in knowledge jobs such as graphic design, support chat, even programming. I feel like we may be looking at less than 3 or 4 years for a lot of jobs to be mostly obsolete. Or at least, the traditional version of those jobs. It's already at the point where you start expecting any knowledge worker to be significantly more productive by leveraging these tools. It's hard to imagine that it will be more than five years before AI tools are available that can handle almost all tasks in these types of jobs. For example, on my website aidev.codes I just added preliminary knowledgebase support. It can reference the knowledgebase this to write code. I would say that with the code-davinci-002 model at least it seems about at the level of a junior software engineer already since it's pretty effective with close supervision by a senior peogrammer, except for the fact that it cannot interpret visual information. Knowledgebases/embedding search can also be used right now with these models for answering support questions. The only thing holding it back from very very wide scale adoption is the problem of making up information. There are already solutions in progress for this. It's unlikely that will take more than a few years to roll out and replace the current generation of models. Google and Microsoft will probably roll out their internet-scale chat search interfaces this year even if they can't fully mitigate the hallucination problem immediately. I would guess more like 2-3 years for many knowledge-based jobs. If you want employment/contracts you will need to be very good at leveraging AI, or people will just use the AIs instead.
dennis_jeeves1 4y ago
>"confidently wrong" Very human I must say.
browningstreet 4y ago
The wall of content and interactive exchanges that will fill the internet from chatgpt generated things will become harder and harder to wade through or evade.

"confidently wrong" That's chatgpt right now. To get it to confidently right will take years and years more

by pxue 4y ago

"confidently wrong" That's chatgpt right now. To get it to confidently right will take years and years more

I saw dallE and GPT-2 demos and though 'oh pretty cool' about a year later we've got stable diffusion that can run on phones and ChatGPT which can remember context. I thought these things would be 3-5 years out or more. The speed of development is so quick, I think confidently right LLM is around the corner In less than a decade, I believe front line support chat support jobs and even graphic artist jobs will be made obselete

causi 4y ago
In less than a decade, I believe front line support chat support jobs and even graphic artist jobs will be made obselete We can finally get the eighty hour long book-accurate Lord of the Rings adaptation we deserve. But seriously, I can't wait to feed a novel into one of these things and get a comic book version in return.
ilaksh 4y ago
The latest models, with the right setup, can already substitute for many (not all) tasks in knowledge jobs such as graphic design, support chat, even programming. I feel like we may be looking at less than 3 or 4 years for a lot of jobs to be mostly obsolete. Or at least, the traditional version of those jobs. It's already at the point where you start expecting any knowledge worker to be significantly more productive by leveraging these tools. It's hard to imagine that it will be more than five years before AI tools are available that can handle almost all tasks in these types of jobs. For example, on my website aidev.codes I just added preliminary knowledgebase support. It can reference the knowledgebase this to write code. I would say that with the code-davinci-002 model at least it seems about at the level of a junior software engineer already since it's pretty effective with close supervision by a senior peogrammer, except for the fact that it cannot interpret visual information. Knowledgebases/embedding search can also be used right now with these models for answering support questions. The only thing holding it back from very very wide scale adoption is the problem of making up information. There are already solutions in progress for this. It's unlikely that will take more than a few years to roll out and replace the current generation of models. Google and Microsoft will probably roll out their internet-scale chat search interfaces this year even if they can't fully mitigate the hallucination problem immediately. I would guess more like 2-3 years for many knowledge-based jobs. If you want employment/contracts you will need to be very good at leveraging AI, or people will just use the AIs instead.

dennis_jeeves1 4y ago

>"confidently wrong" Very human I must say.

browningstreet 4y ago

The wall of content and interactive exchanges that will fill the internet from chatgpt generated things will become harder and harder to wade through or evade.