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The old ‘capture the leadership and the country will surrender in a few days’ strategy. Works every time. The thing is I’m sure the PRC Intelligence service hav
by simonh 4y ago
The old ‘capture the leadership and the country will surrender in a few days’ strategy. Works every time. The thing is I’m sure the PRC Intelligence service have done analyses of what would happen if Russia invaded Ukraine, and what would happen if China invaded Taiwan. I wonder what the first one said? If the credibility of the Taiwan scenario is tied in Xi’s mind to the credibility of the first, that would give us a rough idea of the likelihood he might go for it.
The other problem is that China is way more dependent on outside trade than Russia. They rely on food and energy imports too much, while Russia is self sufficient in both. The same sanctions as on Russia would bring China to its knees in months. In case anyone say “but everyone was saying the sanctions on Russia would cripple them too”, no, not everyone was saying that. The same magazine, The Economist, was explaining why that wasn’t going to happen right from the start.
- Aeolun 4y agoWell, you can always try. You lose nothing by trying to force the opposing force to capitulate first. Of course it helps if you don’t seriously bungle the thing.
- simonh 4y agoYou lose a ton of credibility and weaken your position domestically. No leader relished the prospect of a humiliating defeat in a war of aggression. In an authoritarian system it can be severely career and life limiting.
- rjzzleep 4y agoWhy do people still compare Taiwan with Ukraine, can people not read maps? This isn't 1996 anymore. Contrary to the US China has hypersonic missiles that the US military admitted they work. The area Russia has captured in Ukraine is 3 or 4 times the size of Taiwan. Ukraine borders a couple of NATO countries with huge borders, has pipelines going through its country that Russia didn't touch the entire conflict. Taiwan on the other hand is 150 miles away from China and thousands of miles away from its big backers. Most of eastern Ukraine was Soviet infrastructure heavily fortified over 8 years. Taiwan on the other hand is mostly uninhabitable mountains that barely have roads going through them with very densely populated cities on the west. Taiwan gets its oil and gas from Indonesia and most of its resources from China. Last time they did missile drills they had to stop them because the launchers failed. China just embargoed the island for a couple of days and nothing could move in an out. China doesn't really need to do anything to win. There isn't really any scenario where this plays out in Taiwans favour. The US can't even keep up with Russia's ammunition production[1], how would it match China's manufacturing? While the US moves their warship through the area every now and then as a show of power everyone agrees that there is no protection from hypersonic or even most supersonic missiles and that much of the US Navy are sitting ducks if there were ever a real conflict. Biden was born in 1942 and believes the world is stuck in the 90s. It's extremely dangerous to think and act like that. [1] https://www.military.com/daily-news/2023/01/11/navy-might-have-choose-between-arming-service-and-aiding-ukraine-due-ammo-delays-officials-say.html https://www.military.com/daily-news/2023/01/11/navy-might-ha...
- rocqua 4y agoWhat is the range on hypersonic missles? Perhaps the defense is avoiding detection and keeping a standoff distance until you want to strike?
- rjzzleep 4y ago“Launch in August of nuclear-capable rocket that circled the globe took US intelligence by surprise” Not sure where your stand-off distance would be. https://www.ft.com/content/ba0a3cde-719b-4040-93cb-a486e1f843fb https://www.ft.com/content/ba0a3cde-719b-4040-93cb-a486e1f84...
- JumpCrisscross 4y agoChinese and Russian hypersonic capabilities are a money bell for American defence contractors. For cross-strait warfare, they’re irrelevant. (Conventional artillery dominates at that range.)
- simonh 4y agoHard for American carrier based air assets and AEGIS cruisers to help defend Taiwan if they all got killed by hypersonic missiles.
- red-iron-pine 4y agoThat carriers would be sunk pretty much instantly is a given, and has been for a while now. The USN invests heavily in subs, and you don't hear much about them for a reason...
- cpursley 4y agoYou’re getting downvoted for stating extremely uncomfortable truths. It’s not what westerners want to hear. Ignoring these objective facts is foolish and dangerous. The reality is, with hypersonics (currently deployed), Russia or China could disable entire surface battle groups and there’s not much the US could do about it (conventionally). I encourage everyone to break from their myopia and get a better understanding of the significant geoeconomic and power realignments going on right now. It’s no longer 1992. We’re either headed towards global nuclear holocaust or back to a multi-polar world. May calmer heads prevail. Two books on these topics: - https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/40658433 https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/40658433 - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/52962238-principles-for-dealing-with-the-changing-world-order https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/52962238-principles-for-...