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I just don't see the replacement for Twitter as Mastodon -- which it seems the Tweetbot people are targeting. Twitter will likely file for bankruptcy later thi

I just don't see the replacement for Twitter as Mastodon -- which it seems the Tweetbot people are targeting. Twitter will likely file for bankruptcy later this year due to the debt burden. However, the replacement for Twitter won't be a Twitter "clone." Things will move on. I'm not smart enough to know what people will move on to... But they will move on.

abm53 4y ago
Is there a specific reason you think it won’t be Mastodon?
- jmann99999 4y ago
  Hi ABM. Good question. Here is my perspective (I could always be wrong). I listen to a number of news podcasts and they still tell people where to find the hosts on Twitter. I have yet to hear someone tell people how to find the author on Mastodon. Never. News personalities are the bread and butter of Twitter. They are normies (compared to most of us). Mastodon had its five minutes of fame when Elon started making changes. I was quietly rooting for it, but I think it will be tough. That's why I don't think Mastodon is going to replace Twitter anytime soon.
  - kennydude 4y ago
    > I have yet to hear someone tell people how to find the author on Mastodon. Never. How does a host say an email address? They might say john@reallycoolpodcast.co.uk How does a host say how to find them on Mastodon (or ANY ActivityPub based platform)? They might say john@reallycoolpodcast.co.uk
    - Nextgrid 4y ago
      > How does a host say how to find them on Mastodon (or ANY ActivityPub based platform)? They might say john@reallycoolpodcast.co.uk Tell a non-techie "@johnsreallycoolpodcast" and there's a good chance they'll figure out it's a Twitter or Instagram username. Tell a non-techie "john@reallycoolpodcast.co.uk" and they'll think it's an email address or at best infer the website URL from that. Tell a non-techie there's a social media platform called "Mastodon" and they'll look at you funny, and after the initial awkwardness they'll dismiss it because they don't understand (nor care!) about the whole decentralisation aspect of it and how to navigate its inherent downsides. Having Mastodon use email-like identifiers is a cute technical detail but is not only completely irrelevant for non-techies but actually hurts adoption as it's less recognisable than an "@username".
      - jmann99999 4y ago
        Nextgrid, I completely agree. If I borrow one from Sirius XM...I listen to POTUS... and a host named Julie Mason who is on early in the mornings will say "for more information follow me @ Julie Mason on Twitter." People figure it out.
      - pauby 4y ago
        > Tell a non-techie there's a social media platform called "Mastodon" and they'll look at you funny, They would look at you funny before Twitter was a thing too. Or Instagram. Or Facebook. People will figure it out. It becomes popular. It's not unknown.
system16 4y ago
I said the same thing even a few weeks ago, but the momentum for Mastodon is growing rapidly and it's really impressive to see, and Ivory is a very impressive client even in beta. Almost everyone I followed on Twitter is using it now, and I actually prefer the experience. It's like Twitter but without all the bots/spam/hate, at least for now.
- ssnistfajen 4y ago
  Server fragmentation is still kind of a pain point for Mastodon, but perhaps a better thing in the long term as it also gives us the ability to have a feed with more focused topics. The good thing is most people I follow on Mastodon have stopped talking/complaining about Twitter unlike the first few weeks of the migration wave. The platform can only thrive when it hatches original content.
- themagician 4y ago
  What is "almost everyone"? Four people? Using it on what server? Mastadon is more like Discord than Twitter. There is no core server. There is no core experience. It's just an instanced message board.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - Sunspark 4y ago
    I don't know why Mastodon is hyped up so much. I do not have an account on it as I have some concerns. My understanding at the current time is that a server can be run by a single random individual, they can read your DMs as they are not encrypted, and they can kick you off the server if you write anything the server operator does not agree with. At least with Twitter, it was a corporation with rules and procedures.
    - matwood 4y ago
      I don't really understand this argument. DMs on Twitter aren't encrypted. Now Elon can go read them. Same with kicking you off. With Twitter you're done. At least with Mastodon you can go to another server. You can even run your own server if you want. But, if you're being a jerk your server might get de-federated.
hiidrew 4y ago
I wonder what happens after that? 40B acquisition to bankruptcy sounds brutal. I'm sure there's some nuanced financial way they can recover and continue but wow.
- mewse-hn 4y ago
  Elon had backers for the twitter purchase, they're going to be left holding the bag. They're probably desperately hoping he'll leave and install a permanent CEO as promised ASAP
- jmann99999 4y ago
  At over a billion a year in interest payments to just service the debt is going to be hard. Twitter, before Elon, was already losing a couple hundred million a year. It has to be worse now. I do agree that Morgan Stanley and the other financiers are going to be the kids without a chair when the music stops.
  - kalleboo 4y ago
    > Twitter, before Elon, was already losing a couple hundred million a year Twitter's business was making a profit in 2018 and 2019, but then 2020 happened (because 2020), and in 2021 they had a $800 million class action settlement to pay (without that it would have been $600m profit), and then in 2022 Elon tanked the company in the 4th quarter. The core business was (just about) profitable before Elon. It was just far below the FAANG-level expectations from a tech company.
    - Hamuko 4y ago
      >in 2022 Elon tanked the company in the 4th quarter Didn't Elon basically ruin almost the entire 2022 since the buyout offer was in April and caused uncertainty throughout the year?
- rurp 4y ago
  Elon almost certainly has enough money to keep funding Twitter until he gets bored with it and moves onto something else; which, granted, might not even take a year. It's hard to say what happense at that point but my guess is that he sells it for a fraction of the purchase price. Twitter has a big enough network that there will be something left in the wreckage that someone can try to rebuild from. Bankruptcy could still happen of course, even if Elon still has the money. He might think that completely shutting down Twitter is less embarrasing than selling it for a 90% loss, Elon is still pretending to be a business genius after all.
Finnucane 4y ago
It may very well be that there is not a single 'replacement' for Twitter. One might argue that this is actually a good thing. Monolithic services pretending to be some kind of 'public' space is a lie.

abm53 4y ago

Is there a specific reason you think it won’t be Mastodon?

jmann99999 4y ago
Hi ABM. Good question. Here is my perspective (I could always be wrong). I listen to a number of news podcasts and they still tell people where to find the hosts on Twitter. I have yet to hear someone tell people how to find the author on Mastodon. Never. News personalities are the bread and butter of Twitter. They are normies (compared to most of us). Mastodon had its five minutes of fame when Elon started making changes. I was quietly rooting for it, but I think it will be tough. That's why I don't think Mastodon is going to replace Twitter anytime soon.
- kennydude 4y ago
  > I have yet to hear someone tell people how to find the author on Mastodon. Never. How does a host say an email address? They might say john@reallycoolpodcast.co.uk How does a host say how to find them on Mastodon (or ANY ActivityPub based platform)? They might say john@reallycoolpodcast.co.uk
  - Nextgrid 4y ago
    > How does a host say how to find them on Mastodon (or ANY ActivityPub based platform)? They might say john@reallycoolpodcast.co.uk Tell a non-techie "@johnsreallycoolpodcast" and there's a good chance they'll figure out it's a Twitter or Instagram username. Tell a non-techie "john@reallycoolpodcast.co.uk" and they'll think it's an email address or at best infer the website URL from that. Tell a non-techie there's a social media platform called "Mastodon" and they'll look at you funny, and after the initial awkwardness they'll dismiss it because they don't understand (nor care!) about the whole decentralisation aspect of it and how to navigate its inherent downsides. Having Mastodon use email-like identifiers is a cute technical detail but is not only completely irrelevant for non-techies but actually hurts adoption as it's less recognisable than an "@username".
    - jmann99999 4y ago
      Nextgrid, I completely agree. If I borrow one from Sirius XM...I listen to POTUS... and a host named Julie Mason who is on early in the mornings will say "for more information follow me @ Julie Mason on Twitter." People figure it out.
    - pauby 4y ago
      > Tell a non-techie there's a social media platform called "Mastodon" and they'll look at you funny, They would look at you funny before Twitter was a thing too. Or Instagram. Or Facebook. People will figure it out. It becomes popular. It's not unknown.

system16 4y ago

I said the same thing even a few weeks ago, but the momentum for Mastodon is growing rapidly and it's really impressive to see, and Ivory is a very impressive client even in beta. Almost everyone I followed on Twitter is using it now, and I actually prefer the experience. It's like Twitter but without all the bots/spam/hate, at least for now.

ssnistfajen 4y ago
Server fragmentation is still kind of a pain point for Mastodon, but perhaps a better thing in the long term as it also gives us the ability to have a feed with more focused topics. The good thing is most people I follow on Mastodon have stopped talking/complaining about Twitter unlike the first few weeks of the migration wave. The platform can only thrive when it hatches original content.
themagician 4y ago
What is "almost everyone"? Four people? Using it on what server? Mastadon is more like Discord than Twitter. There is no core server. There is no core experience. It's just an instanced message board.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- Sunspark 4y ago
  I don't know why Mastodon is hyped up so much. I do not have an account on it as I have some concerns. My understanding at the current time is that a server can be run by a single random individual, they can read your DMs as they are not encrypted, and they can kick you off the server if you write anything the server operator does not agree with. At least with Twitter, it was a corporation with rules and procedures.
  - matwood 4y ago
    I don't really understand this argument. DMs on Twitter aren't encrypted. Now Elon can go read them. Same with kicking you off. With Twitter you're done. At least with Mastodon you can go to another server. You can even run your own server if you want. But, if you're being a jerk your server might get de-federated.

hiidrew 4y ago

I wonder what happens after that? 40B acquisition to bankruptcy sounds brutal. I'm sure there's some nuanced financial way they can recover and continue but wow.

mewse-hn 4y ago
Elon had backers for the twitter purchase, they're going to be left holding the bag. They're probably desperately hoping he'll leave and install a permanent CEO as promised ASAP
jmann99999 4y ago
At over a billion a year in interest payments to just service the debt is going to be hard. Twitter, before Elon, was already losing a couple hundred million a year. It has to be worse now. I do agree that Morgan Stanley and the other financiers are going to be the kids without a chair when the music stops.
- kalleboo 4y ago
  > Twitter, before Elon, was already losing a couple hundred million a year Twitter's business was making a profit in 2018 and 2019, but then 2020 happened (because 2020), and in 2021 they had a $800 million class action settlement to pay (without that it would have been $600m profit), and then in 2022 Elon tanked the company in the 4th quarter. The core business was (just about) profitable before Elon. It was just far below the FAANG-level expectations from a tech company.
  - Hamuko 4y ago
    >in 2022 Elon tanked the company in the 4th quarter Didn't Elon basically ruin almost the entire 2022 since the buyout offer was in April and caused uncertainty throughout the year?
rurp 4y ago
Elon almost certainly has enough money to keep funding Twitter until he gets bored with it and moves onto something else; which, granted, might not even take a year. It's hard to say what happense at that point but my guess is that he sells it for a fraction of the purchase price. Twitter has a big enough network that there will be something left in the wreckage that someone can try to rebuild from. Bankruptcy could still happen of course, even if Elon still has the money. He might think that completely shutting down Twitter is less embarrasing than selling it for a 90% loss, Elon is still pretending to be a business genius after all.

Finnucane 4y ago

It may very well be that there is not a single 'replacement' for Twitter. One might argue that this is actually a good thing. Monolithic services pretending to be some kind of 'public' space is a lie.