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The fundamental problem is that everyone has a different reason for wanting plant-based meat/fake meat. So by any particular metric, they have failed. Some peo

The fundamental problem is that everyone has a different reason for wanting plant-based meat/fake meat. So by any particular metric, they have failed. Some people want fake meat to be a 1:1 meat substitute because they love meat but can't eat it (allergies, cardiovascular, etc). Some people want cheaper meat because quality meat you can trust has grown too expensive. Some people want more vegan/vegetarian options because they object to killing animals or economic externalities that cattle grazing causes. Some people want meat-based substitutes because the companies are public and they are looking for the next unicorn to invest in. The problem is, those looking for meat substitute think it isn't close enough, those who want cheaper meat think it's too expensive, vegans/vegetarians have actually vegetable based options and aren't necessarily looking for fake meat at all, and investors fell for hype. Every one of these entities has a different metric, and several of them are at odds with each other. In my opinion, if plant-based meat turns out to be a flop, it will be because its core market is too many different groups and it'll never satiate all of them. Case in point - read the comments on this article. Everyone has a different reason for wanting or not wanting this stuff.

nicoburns 4y ago
Does any of that really matter if people are buying it anyway?
- COGlory 4y ago
  Not sure. But I think it does help explain articles like this one.
  - DangitBobby 4y ago
    Not really, since the article doesn't support the title.
jasonjmcghee 4y ago
I've been slowly cutting meat out of my diet, and stopped eating beef a few years ago. I think Impossible burgers are too close to beef for me- I feel ill after eating them and no longer do. Much prefer the classic veggie/bean patties
- poszlem 4y ago
  I really doubt it was the "similarity to meat" that gave you those symptoms (though obviously there is no way for me to verify that, so you have the last word on what happens in your own body). Anyway - there is a great comment that I saved (https://www.facebook.com/david.zilber/posts/pfbid02CkCY53qDdzpUFYmSzc9gfvsTpHHwvw1Y1prDhKT1ErNZuUdYMSifSZGJoEEiYkKbl https://www.facebook.com/david.zilber/posts/pfbid02CkCY53qDd...) "Here’s a pesky little chemical called hexanal. If you’ve ever eaten a beyond burger, or any of these plant based products 2.0 (though to be honest, it’s more like they’re on V.46.6.2) and burped 10 or 15 minutes afterwards, and thought to yourself, “Hmmm, wow, ok I definitely just had a meat alternative” you were probably regurgitating this aerosol. Some people think it’s fruity, like green apple, others like mulched grass. At the lab, we had to walk outside to get wafts of it in its pure form, but the minute I opened the cap I knew exactly what this flavour was…. “OLD FRYER OIL, 100%”. It’s metabolized in all manners of organisms through the oxidation of fatty acids, and is… kind of unpleasant?! The point is that while this molecule exists in fava beans, peas, and soy, (the three kings of texturized vegetable protein) when you have a WHOLE FOOD, its there in harmony among all sorts of other volatile compounds, while also being locked away deep inside the beans fibres. It’s the act of processing that concentrated and heightens the presence of off-flavours like these, making the processed foods made from them taste, well, processed. Good with the bad. You can’t concentrate for protein without concentrating other aspects of a plant. There’s always a cost. Now, I will always be a huge proponent for whole foods, made with care, prepared simply. But the realities of grocery store shelves dictate a different truth. People opt for convenience, and sometimes, you’ve got to meet them where they are. My current work at CH has me doggedly hunting down an effect of fermentation I’ve long known intuitively through practice. Certain lactic acid bacteria fermenting their way through legumes don’t just mask, but dismantle this and other problematic molecules. I’m still after the mode of action, but it’s also enough for me to know that age old techniques of fermentation (like soaking ones legumes or grains days in advance of their cooking) can still put to shame the greatest technological “advances” of food science of the past 40 years. Nature is, after all, cleverer than you are. "
  - alexgrover 4y ago
    While this very well may be true, on this website I think we should hold our science to a higher standard than random Facebook comments
maxwell 4y ago
> the companies are public and they are looking for the next unicorn to invest in. Just noting that "unicorns" are private companies valued at >=$1B. So, Impossible Foods is already a unicorn (still private, looks like valued around $7B a couple years ago) but Beyond Meat is public and has a market cap <$1B.
aargh_aargh 4y ago
Great points. Consider the source of the message. Is it a gourmet site? A health magazine? A nature conservation or animal protection group? Nope, "Bloomberg delivers business and markets news, data, analysis, and video to the world".
fineIllregister 4y ago
You're repeating the same all-or-nothing reasoning. For many people looking for a substitute, it is close enough. For many vegans, it is an option they like. It doesn't to be every single person eating it at every meal for it to be successful. Other vegetarian protein patty substitutes have done just fine for decades selling to customers who want it. Why does Impossible have to eliminate meat altogether in order to succeed? Why can't they just make money providing an option to a growing customer base?
- WrtCdEvrydy 4y ago
  Because profits must go up. Anything else is a failure.
  - Matticus_Rex 4y ago
    This is a non-response. Profits go up when you give people things they want in a way that's sustainable and decently scalable. Plant-based meats have definitely not reached their peak of market penetration, and manufacturing costs are expected to continue declining. If they continue to sell and continue to grow the customer base, profits will go up.
    - WrtCdEvrydy 4y ago
      > If they continue to sell and continue to grow the customer base, profits will go up. What I have found is that "profits is not enough", you must be making more profit than the competition.
      - interstice 4y ago
        If the competition is other plant based meat products then it doesn’t matter who wins
  - georgeplusplus 4y ago
    Your kind should just start calling it the P-word given how evil you think this term is.
scifibestfi 4y ago
There was also the health marketing angle that flopped when people starting looking at the ingredients.
- cableshaft 4y ago
  That's what's stopped me from getting them. They're not any healthier (and arguably less healthy) than the meat they're substituting. I'd rather they stuck with the old soy burgers that tasted less like meat but were clearly healthier (unless you're on a keto diet) than what they've come up with.
  - ricardobayes 4y ago
    Well sure, not the meat itself, but the nitrosamines used to cure it, that's the bad part. According to my old boss who's a cancer researcher, apparently it's pretty carcinogenic. And it's basically unavoidable, the food industry hasn't been able to come up with anything better. Not using it, and having widespread botulism is not very fun.
    - tredre3 4y ago
      > Well sure, not the meat itself, but the nitrosamines used to cure it, that's the bad part. Burger meat isn't cured, though.
      - c256 4y ago
        It turns out that most fast food burgers are made from heavily processed meat that includes various preservatives and whatnot that make it noticeably less healthy than plain hamburger, unfortunately.
    - nradov 4y ago
      The vast majority of regular meat contains no nitrosamines or other preservatives.
purephase 4y ago
This doesn't make any sense at all. Every one has different reasons for wanting most products. It's this nuance that is at the foundation of the entire field of marketing, and finding appeal for any product in the marketplace. There are products that are extremely niche that serve very specific purposes that are considered very successful, and there are products that serve very broad appeal across a wide subsection of the population that by all metrics would be considered "failed" (e.g. loss leaders). The mere fact that you can walk into most restaurants or grocery stores and see an explosion of plant-based alternatives, and that the meat industry itself has been one of the main investors in this space should provide all of the evidence that is contrary to the point you're making. This article is, quite frankly, an author in search of a specific narrative.
Wistar 4y ago
And some people, such as my spouse, much prefer the flavor of Impossible burger over actual ground beef.
adamsmith143 4y ago
>Some people want fake meat to be a 1:1 meat substitute because they love meat but can't eat it (allergies, cardiovascular, etc). Seems kind of absurd. Presumably a 1:1 meat substitute would be chemically identical to "real" meat and the allergies and health effects associated with it would be identical.
- LesZedCB 4y ago
  Not meat but happened with milk. Somebody allergic to casein or whey (I don't remember) drank vegan milk, but it was synthesized identical milk. Almost died, scary mistake.
  - dr_orpheus 4y ago
    Thanks for making me look this up. I was curious since my wife can't eat dairy proteins (not as a severe a reaction fortunately). I think that it was probably whey. There are some companies that have claimed to create whey that is identical to milk whey from vegan sources [0]. It makes me wonder how the ingredients list is labeled though. Since there are requirements to call out allergic sources in ingredients lists (it will say something like "Contains Milk" or "Allergy Warning: Milk, Tree Nuts") how or if it is listed on there. EDIT: On the Perfect Day website there is a small warning at the bottom that says "Our protein is a milk allergen". Also found some Brave Robot ice cream that uses their protein listed online at my grocery store. Under the Allergen Info it does say "Contains Milk and its Derivatives". Also while looking around found that for casein, it is still used in some glues [1] on bottle packaging. Likely not the source since it wasn't ingested more of an interesting factoid. [0] https://perfectday.com/animal-free-milk-protein/ https://perfectday.com/animal-free-milk-protein/ [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casein#Glue https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casein#Glue
kortex 4y ago
That still seems like two primary groups: meat simulacra and simply veggie-based primary protein. The "try to approximate meat" is usually the main driver of cost/ingredient complexity.
rrrrrrrrrrrryan 4y ago
> The problem is, those looking for meat substitute think it isn't close enough, those who want cheaper meat think it's too expensive, vegans/vegetarians have actually vegetable based options and aren't necessarily looking for fake meat at all I think of this stuff as none of these things. It's nicotine gum. Nicotine gum won't ever replace cigarettes, nor will people who don't smoke start chewing it. This is a product for people trying to transition away from a meat-heavy diet. It's never going to be 100% the same, but it's close enough to reduce the cravings. Eventually they'll graduate to healthier, cheaper, and (arguably) better tasting vegetarian products that don't resemble meat at all. The motivations for cutting back on meat don't matter. Just like there's a market for nicotine gum, there's a market for this.
- vineyardmike 4y ago
  To add: it’s additionally a cop-out to restaurants providing a vegetarian option. Eg. Burger joints without veg options are losing sales when a group including a vegetarian slips the meal instead of getting an impossible burger.
- philwelch 4y ago
  Actually, a lot of non-smokers use nicotine products; aside from caffeine it’s one of the few commercially available CNS stimulants out there.
- telchior 4y ago
  > Nicotine gum won't ever replace cigarettes, nor will people who don't smoke start chewing it. There are non-smokers who use nicotine gum; I'm one of them. Similar effect to caffeine with a lower half-life, so it's suitable to have later in the day. I'm sure that we're a small group, but if nicotine didn't have the specter of cigarettes hanging behind it, I'd imagine it could be quite a large market. Plant-based meat is sort of the opposite. Real meat has the specter behind it, so there's a good funnel of people into the product. Furthermore, any kind of taste that's above "edible" eventually gets people acclimated; they expect and learn to enjoy it. I can't prove that on an individual basis, but the plant-based meat market is growing at a healthy clip and has been around for several years, which suggests a lot of repeat buyers. You'd have to provide some kind of evidence to say "eventually they'll graduate", as there's no indication of that so far.
tuatoru 4y ago
I disagree - the fundamental problem with mass-market goods is the value proposition. For a new product to replace an existing one, it has to be at least two of cheaper, better, and/or more convenient. More convenient is out, and plant-based meat substitutes are neither cheaper nor better than meat. They need to be both. (Better is a complex of attributes. Taste, texture, variety, tolerance of varied cooking and consumption patterns, keeping duration, side-effects of consumption (like nausea, feeling full, or fibres sticking in teeth), and in the long term, health effects, among them.)

nicoburns 4y ago

Does any of that really matter if people are buying it anyway?

COGlory 4y ago
Not sure. But I think it does help explain articles like this one.
- DangitBobby 4y ago
  Not really, since the article doesn't support the title.

jasonjmcghee 4y ago

I've been slowly cutting meat out of my diet, and stopped eating beef a few years ago. I think Impossible burgers are too close to beef for me- I feel ill after eating them and no longer do. Much prefer the classic veggie/bean patties

poszlem 4y ago
I really doubt it was the "similarity to meat" that gave you those symptoms (though obviously there is no way for me to verify that, so you have the last word on what happens in your own body). Anyway - there is a great comment that I saved (https://www.facebook.com/david.zilber/posts/pfbid02CkCY53qDdzpUFYmSzc9gfvsTpHHwvw1Y1prDhKT1ErNZuUdYMSifSZGJoEEiYkKbl https://www.facebook.com/david.zilber/posts/pfbid02CkCY53qDd...) "Here’s a pesky little chemical called hexanal. If you’ve ever eaten a beyond burger, or any of these plant based products 2.0 (though to be honest, it’s more like they’re on V.46.6.2) and burped 10 or 15 minutes afterwards, and thought to yourself, “Hmmm, wow, ok I definitely just had a meat alternative” you were probably regurgitating this aerosol. Some people think it’s fruity, like green apple, others like mulched grass. At the lab, we had to walk outside to get wafts of it in its pure form, but the minute I opened the cap I knew exactly what this flavour was…. “OLD FRYER OIL, 100%”. It’s metabolized in all manners of organisms through the oxidation of fatty acids, and is… kind of unpleasant?! The point is that while this molecule exists in fava beans, peas, and soy, (the three kings of texturized vegetable protein) when you have a WHOLE FOOD, its there in harmony among all sorts of other volatile compounds, while also being locked away deep inside the beans fibres. It’s the act of processing that concentrated and heightens the presence of off-flavours like these, making the processed foods made from them taste, well, processed. Good with the bad. You can’t concentrate for protein without concentrating other aspects of a plant. There’s always a cost. Now, I will always be a huge proponent for whole foods, made with care, prepared simply. But the realities of grocery store shelves dictate a different truth. People opt for convenience, and sometimes, you’ve got to meet them where they are. My current work at CH has me doggedly hunting down an effect of fermentation I’ve long known intuitively through practice. Certain lactic acid bacteria fermenting their way through legumes don’t just mask, but dismantle this and other problematic molecules. I’m still after the mode of action, but it’s also enough for me to know that age old techniques of fermentation (like soaking ones legumes or grains days in advance of their cooking) can still put to shame the greatest technological “advances” of food science of the past 40 years. Nature is, after all, cleverer than you are. "
- alexgrover 4y ago
  While this very well may be true, on this website I think we should hold our science to a higher standard than random Facebook comments

maxwell 4y ago

> the companies are public and they are looking for the next unicorn to invest in. Just noting that "unicorns" are private companies valued at >=$1B. So, Impossible Foods is already a unicorn (still private, looks like valued around $7B a couple years ago) but Beyond Meat is public and has a market cap <$1B.

aargh_aargh 4y ago

Great points. Consider the source of the message. Is it a gourmet site? A health magazine? A nature conservation or animal protection group? Nope, "Bloomberg delivers business and markets news, data, analysis, and video to the world".

fineIllregister 4y ago

You're repeating the same all-or-nothing reasoning. For many people looking for a substitute, it is close enough. For many vegans, it is an option they like. It doesn't to be every single person eating it at every meal for it to be successful. Other vegetarian protein patty substitutes have done just fine for decades selling to customers who want it. Why does Impossible have to eliminate meat altogether in order to succeed? Why can't they just make money providing an option to a growing customer base?

WrtCdEvrydy 4y ago
Because profits must go up. Anything else is a failure.
- Matticus_Rex 4y ago
  This is a non-response. Profits go up when you give people things they want in a way that's sustainable and decently scalable. Plant-based meats have definitely not reached their peak of market penetration, and manufacturing costs are expected to continue declining. If they continue to sell and continue to grow the customer base, profits will go up.
  - WrtCdEvrydy 4y ago
    > If they continue to sell and continue to grow the customer base, profits will go up. What I have found is that "profits is not enough", you must be making more profit than the competition.
    - interstice 4y ago
      If the competition is other plant based meat products then it doesn’t matter who wins
- georgeplusplus 4y ago
  Your kind should just start calling it the P-word given how evil you think this term is.

scifibestfi 4y ago

There was also the health marketing angle that flopped when people starting looking at the ingredients.

cableshaft 4y ago
That's what's stopped me from getting them. They're not any healthier (and arguably less healthy) than the meat they're substituting. I'd rather they stuck with the old soy burgers that tasted less like meat but were clearly healthier (unless you're on a keto diet) than what they've come up with.
- ricardobayes 4y ago
  Well sure, not the meat itself, but the nitrosamines used to cure it, that's the bad part. According to my old boss who's a cancer researcher, apparently it's pretty carcinogenic. And it's basically unavoidable, the food industry hasn't been able to come up with anything better. Not using it, and having widespread botulism is not very fun.
  - tredre3 4y ago
    > Well sure, not the meat itself, but the nitrosamines used to cure it, that's the bad part. Burger meat isn't cured, though.
    - c256 4y ago
      It turns out that most fast food burgers are made from heavily processed meat that includes various preservatives and whatnot that make it noticeably less healthy than plain hamburger, unfortunately.
  - nradov 4y ago
    The vast majority of regular meat contains no nitrosamines or other preservatives.

purephase 4y ago

This doesn't make any sense at all. Every one has different reasons for wanting most products. It's this nuance that is at the foundation of the entire field of marketing, and finding appeal for any product in the marketplace. There are products that are extremely niche that serve very specific purposes that are considered very successful, and there are products that serve very broad appeal across a wide subsection of the population that by all metrics would be considered "failed" (e.g. loss leaders). The mere fact that you can walk into most restaurants or grocery stores and see an explosion of plant-based alternatives, and that the meat industry itself has been one of the main investors in this space should provide all of the evidence that is contrary to the point you're making. This article is, quite frankly, an author in search of a specific narrative.

Wistar 4y ago

And some people, such as my spouse, much prefer the flavor of Impossible burger over actual ground beef.

adamsmith143 4y ago

>Some people want fake meat to be a 1:1 meat substitute because they love meat but can't eat it (allergies, cardiovascular, etc). Seems kind of absurd. Presumably a 1:1 meat substitute would be chemically identical to "real" meat and the allergies and health effects associated with it would be identical.

LesZedCB 4y ago
Not meat but happened with milk. Somebody allergic to casein or whey (I don't remember) drank vegan milk, but it was synthesized identical milk. Almost died, scary mistake.
- dr_orpheus 4y ago
  Thanks for making me look this up. I was curious since my wife can't eat dairy proteins (not as a severe a reaction fortunately). I think that it was probably whey. There are some companies that have claimed to create whey that is identical to milk whey from vegan sources [0]. It makes me wonder how the ingredients list is labeled though. Since there are requirements to call out allergic sources in ingredients lists (it will say something like "Contains Milk" or "Allergy Warning: Milk, Tree Nuts") how or if it is listed on there. EDIT: On the Perfect Day website there is a small warning at the bottom that says "Our protein is a milk allergen". Also found some Brave Robot ice cream that uses their protein listed online at my grocery store. Under the Allergen Info it does say "Contains Milk and its Derivatives". Also while looking around found that for casein, it is still used in some glues [1] on bottle packaging. Likely not the source since it wasn't ingested more of an interesting factoid. [0] https://perfectday.com/animal-free-milk-protein/ https://perfectday.com/animal-free-milk-protein/ [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casein#Glue https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casein#Glue

kortex 4y ago

That still seems like two primary groups: meat simulacra and simply veggie-based primary protein. The "try to approximate meat" is usually the main driver of cost/ingredient complexity.

rrrrrrrrrrrryan 4y ago

> The problem is, those looking for meat substitute think it isn't close enough, those who want cheaper meat think it's too expensive, vegans/vegetarians have actually vegetable based options and aren't necessarily looking for fake meat at all I think of this stuff as none of these things. It's nicotine gum. Nicotine gum won't ever replace cigarettes, nor will people who don't smoke start chewing it. This is a product for people trying to transition away from a meat-heavy diet. It's never going to be 100% the same, but it's close enough to reduce the cravings. Eventually they'll graduate to healthier, cheaper, and (arguably) better tasting vegetarian products that don't resemble meat at all. The motivations for cutting back on meat don't matter. Just like there's a market for nicotine gum, there's a market for this.

vineyardmike 4y ago
To add: it’s additionally a cop-out to restaurants providing a vegetarian option. Eg. Burger joints without veg options are losing sales when a group including a vegetarian slips the meal instead of getting an impossible burger.
philwelch 4y ago
Actually, a lot of non-smokers use nicotine products; aside from caffeine it’s one of the few commercially available CNS stimulants out there.
telchior 4y ago
> Nicotine gum won't ever replace cigarettes, nor will people who don't smoke start chewing it. There are non-smokers who use nicotine gum; I'm one of them. Similar effect to caffeine with a lower half-life, so it's suitable to have later in the day. I'm sure that we're a small group, but if nicotine didn't have the specter of cigarettes hanging behind it, I'd imagine it could be quite a large market. Plant-based meat is sort of the opposite. Real meat has the specter behind it, so there's a good funnel of people into the product. Furthermore, any kind of taste that's above "edible" eventually gets people acclimated; they expect and learn to enjoy it. I can't prove that on an individual basis, but the plant-based meat market is growing at a healthy clip and has been around for several years, which suggests a lot of repeat buyers. You'd have to provide some kind of evidence to say "eventually they'll graduate", as there's no indication of that so far.

tuatoru 4y ago

I disagree - the fundamental problem with mass-market goods is the value proposition. For a new product to replace an existing one, it has to be at least two of cheaper, better, and/or more convenient. More convenient is out, and plant-based meat substitutes are neither cheaper nor better than meat. They need to be both. (Better is a complex of attributes. Taste, texture, variety, tolerance of varied cooking and consumption patterns, keeping duration, side-effects of consumption (like nausea, feeling full, or fibres sticking in teeth), and in the long term, health effects, among them.)