14 ms·

Their methods are heavily based on hybrid planning, model-predictive-control, and trajectory optimization which have many parallels to popular ML methodologies

Their methods are heavily based on hybrid planning, model-predictive-control, and trajectory optimization which have many parallels to popular ML methodologies [1]. Boston Dynamics problem is not "inaccessibility of robot hardware" or that "they have to adopt more ML methods"... There are more expensive machines in the world that are wildly profitable. Their problem is that it is very very hard to make a business case for humanoid or quadrupedal robots that is not better solved by more standard automation systems that (for example) don't have to be charged every 30 minutes or have to climb up and down the stairs. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGABAx52GKI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGABAx52GKI

paganel 4y ago
> problem is that it is very very hard to make a business c Not sure if you can apply the "business" label to it but I'm pretty sure that the US Military is quite happy to throw money at this, no questions asked. Also strange how the guy at end was talking about possible use-cases mentioned stuff like construction but not the battle-fields or suppressing dissent.
chasd00 4y ago
A follow-me feature that gets 500lbs of shingles up a ladder and onto a roof would be useful. Granted, probably way more expensive than human labor.
dclowd9901 4y ago
This was my thinking. The robot in this video replaced a dumb waiter.
- geocrasher 4y ago
  With some work, it could probably even replace a smart one.
modeless 4y ago
The business case problem is solely a capability problem. Flexibility is hugely valuable and would make a capable humanoid robot way more valuable than traditional automation in plenty of applications. But Atlas just can't do anything useful without decent hands. And it seems to me like the mechanical problems and control problems for hands are actually much harder than for legs. Boston Dynamics doesn't have much going on there yet, at least in public.
- DoctorOetker 4y ago
  meanwhile thirteen years ago, high speed robotic hand: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KxjVlaLBmk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KxjVlaLBmk
- kitsunesoba 4y ago
  I agree on both counts. The ability to repurpose the robot as needed for a virtually infinite range of tasks is worth a lot… As for hands, I wouldn't be surprised if they're working on something in that realm, but good hands alone aren't worth a whole lot without the rest of the robot and they don't make for particularly snazzy demo videos, so they haven't been shown off (if they exist). Now capable hands on a capable robot on the other hand… that's a recipe for a viral video.
mulmen 4y ago
> Their problem is that it is very very hard to make a business case for humanoid or quadrupedal robots that is not better solved by more standard automation systems that (for example) don't have to be charged every 30 minutes or have to climb up and down the stairs. This reminds me of the realization that the difference between a Star Trek replicator and a microwaved can of Campbell's soup is about 30 seconds. We already have robots all around us. Microwaves cook our meals, washing machines do our laundry, dishwashers clean our dishes, etc. The time savings are immense but these devices do not resemble how humans perform the same tasks.
- Teever 4y ago
  > This reminds me of the realization that the difference between a Star Trek replicator and a microwaved can of Campbell's soup is about 30 seconds. Can a microwave make another microwave? Self-replication is the killer feature of sci-fi replicators that people often miss. We already to have robots everywhere, it's true, but they can't self replicate, so we still need humans in the loop. bipedal robots have the prospect of being the glue that combines all the other machines together, just like humans are. Once that happens you'll have a novel machine that humans have as of yet never been able to make -- a Von Neumann probe.
  - mulmen 4y ago
    I'm certain there are robots involved in manufacturing microwaves.
    - Teever 4y ago
      Yes but can a microwave make a microwave? Not only could a humanoid robot make a microwave, it could even make a copy of itself. And if it didn't have the parts lying around it could get into a car, drive out to the mountains and start mining the raw materials to build the parts. Can a microwave do that?
- D13Fd 4y ago
  > This reminds me of the realization that the difference between a Star Trek replicator and a microwaved can of Campbell's soup is about 30 seconds. Well, 30 seconds plus the entirety of the farming, production, supply, transportation, and commercial infrastructure that gets that can of soup into your cabinet. That said, I mostly agree with your broader point.
irjustin 4y ago
> very very hard to make a business case for humanoid or quadrupedal robots that is not better solved by more standard automation systems It's a general robot vs a specialized one. The only reason why it's a hard business case is usefulness vs price. Why do you have a washing machine that sits there doing nothing 95% of the day? You literally dedicate usable space to this. Obviously, the dream is iRobot (not the 2nd gen) and possibly like Startrek where working is optional and purely a pursuit of a dream instead of a necessity of living in the modern world.
- justapassenger 4y ago
  This is SF talk, that has 0 to with realities of engineering, trade offs and cost.
  - irjustin 4y ago
    which part the generalized humanoid robot? or the Star Trek?
  - jameshart 4y ago
    Not sure if you mean Science Fiction or San Francisco. Either works.
- makeitdouble 4y ago
  > It's a general robot vs a specialized one. The only reason why it's a hard business case is usefulness vs price. Yes. And as it is a common issue, we’ve seen it play out again and again: specialized wins for an incredibly long time, until the technology and production power leaps forward, and the generic solution becomes enough of a commodity to warrant using it in sub-par use cases. I see the Raspberry Pi as the poster child of this: using a generic computing device to activate your garage door only makes sense because it’s so cheap to do so (at least while supply lasted) I’d imagine humanoid robots will follow the same path: decades from now, as the cost to build one has ridiculously plummeted and we’ve already moved on to way more efficient solutions in specialized applications, we’ll have home humanoids tasked to do dumb things, because it will just be that cheap anyway.
nextweek2 4y ago
I look at these robots and see the business case that they could be used to take care of the elderly. They could literally do the heavy lifting in care homes, leaving caregivers to do the more gentle tasks. There’s a big market there that would only grow, given current demographics. I don’t see the Tesla bot catching up with Boston Dynamics any time soon.
- prmoustache 4y ago
  Can't most of the "heavy lifting" be done by more specialized machine anyway? I mean besides electric beds and chairs there isn't much left. I'd rather give powered exosqueletons to caregivers if they need more power to lift an overweight person than use a robot for that application anyway.
- epistemer 4y ago
  [dead]
- ben_w 4y ago
  Maybe, but based on what I saw in my mother and grandmother in their old age, I think androids in general (not just Boston Dynamic) have a long way to go just on the "accidentally terrifying" front, let alone capabilities. Even for me, things like the following video are the wrong side of uncanny valley: https://youtu.be/uXlQuTRSmzc?t=270 https://youtu.be/uXlQuTRSmzc?t=270
spaceman_2020 4y ago
The business case will eventually be selling robotic companions to chronically lonely people. Loneliness is arguably the biggest under-addressed problem in the wealthy developed world.
- Tozen 4y ago
  I can kind of see that, in terms of robot pets or sex robots. Clearly robot pets are going to be more marketable. Sex bots will definitely be a weird niche, until some very revolutionary (if not scary) breakthroughs happen. Boston Dynamics seems to be making a much broader business case than just lonely people. For instance warehouse workers, factory workers, bartenders, dangerous jobs, interplanetary explorer, etc... There are a lot places where such humanoid robots can end up, which is way beyond a "lonely" people market.
  - prmoustache 4y ago
    I feel exosqueletons are a more interesting approach anyway. Maybe robots would do less errors but I don't know, most of the times I tried an AI it would understand most of what I asked but if I would miss to precise some details but it would still do the job while an human would ask for more precision on the request. I would hate my robot to break stuff or put stuff in shelve C while I wanted it in shelve A and have to ask him again. Sure sometimes human workers also assume things instead of asking for more precise direction but I have the feeling we are more easily puzzled while an AI seems to be trained to be overconfident in order to be useful.
  - winReInstall 4y ago
    Also wage supression towards zero. Some companies do more for UBI then the biggest revolutionary ever could do..
Existenceblinks 4y ago
Make me think does living things' evolution make of pure functional utility purpose?

paganel 4y ago

> problem is that it is very very hard to make a business c Not sure if you can apply the "business" label to it but I'm pretty sure that the US Military is quite happy to throw money at this, no questions asked. Also strange how the guy at end was talking about possible use-cases mentioned stuff like construction but not the battle-fields or suppressing dissent.

chasd00 4y ago

A follow-me feature that gets 500lbs of shingles up a ladder and onto a roof would be useful. Granted, probably way more expensive than human labor.

dclowd9901 4y ago

This was my thinking. The robot in this video replaced a dumb waiter.

geocrasher 4y ago
With some work, it could probably even replace a smart one.

modeless 4y ago

The business case problem is solely a capability problem. Flexibility is hugely valuable and would make a capable humanoid robot way more valuable than traditional automation in plenty of applications. But Atlas just can't do anything useful without decent hands. And it seems to me like the mechanical problems and control problems for hands are actually much harder than for legs. Boston Dynamics doesn't have much going on there yet, at least in public.

DoctorOetker 4y ago
meanwhile thirteen years ago, high speed robotic hand: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KxjVlaLBmk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KxjVlaLBmk
kitsunesoba 4y ago
I agree on both counts. The ability to repurpose the robot as needed for a virtually infinite range of tasks is worth a lot… As for hands, I wouldn't be surprised if they're working on something in that realm, but good hands alone aren't worth a whole lot without the rest of the robot and they don't make for particularly snazzy demo videos, so they haven't been shown off (if they exist). Now capable hands on a capable robot on the other hand… that's a recipe for a viral video.

mulmen 4y ago

> Their problem is that it is very very hard to make a business case for humanoid or quadrupedal robots that is not better solved by more standard automation systems that (for example) don't have to be charged every 30 minutes or have to climb up and down the stairs. This reminds me of the realization that the difference between a Star Trek replicator and a microwaved can of Campbell's soup is about 30 seconds. We already have robots all around us. Microwaves cook our meals, washing machines do our laundry, dishwashers clean our dishes, etc. The time savings are immense but these devices do not resemble how humans perform the same tasks.

Teever 4y ago
> This reminds me of the realization that the difference between a Star Trek replicator and a microwaved can of Campbell's soup is about 30 seconds. Can a microwave make another microwave? Self-replication is the killer feature of sci-fi replicators that people often miss. We already to have robots everywhere, it's true, but they can't self replicate, so we still need humans in the loop. bipedal robots have the prospect of being the glue that combines all the other machines together, just like humans are. Once that happens you'll have a novel machine that humans have as of yet never been able to make -- a Von Neumann probe.
- mulmen 4y ago
  I'm certain there are robots involved in manufacturing microwaves.
  - Teever 4y ago
    Yes but can a microwave make a microwave? Not only could a humanoid robot make a microwave, it could even make a copy of itself. And if it didn't have the parts lying around it could get into a car, drive out to the mountains and start mining the raw materials to build the parts. Can a microwave do that?
D13Fd 4y ago
> This reminds me of the realization that the difference between a Star Trek replicator and a microwaved can of Campbell's soup is about 30 seconds. Well, 30 seconds plus the entirety of the farming, production, supply, transportation, and commercial infrastructure that gets that can of soup into your cabinet. That said, I mostly agree with your broader point.

irjustin 4y ago

> very very hard to make a business case for humanoid or quadrupedal robots that is not better solved by more standard automation systems It's a general robot vs a specialized one. The only reason why it's a hard business case is usefulness vs price. Why do you have a washing machine that sits there doing nothing 95% of the day? You literally dedicate usable space to this. Obviously, the dream is iRobot (not the 2nd gen) and possibly like Startrek where working is optional and purely a pursuit of a dream instead of a necessity of living in the modern world.

justapassenger 4y ago
This is SF talk, that has 0 to with realities of engineering, trade offs and cost.
- irjustin 4y ago
  which part the generalized humanoid robot? or the Star Trek?
- jameshart 4y ago
  Not sure if you mean Science Fiction or San Francisco. Either works.
makeitdouble 4y ago
> It's a general robot vs a specialized one. The only reason why it's a hard business case is usefulness vs price. Yes. And as it is a common issue, we’ve seen it play out again and again: specialized wins for an incredibly long time, until the technology and production power leaps forward, and the generic solution becomes enough of a commodity to warrant using it in sub-par use cases. I see the Raspberry Pi as the poster child of this: using a generic computing device to activate your garage door only makes sense because it’s so cheap to do so (at least while supply lasted) I’d imagine humanoid robots will follow the same path: decades from now, as the cost to build one has ridiculously plummeted and we’ve already moved on to way more efficient solutions in specialized applications, we’ll have home humanoids tasked to do dumb things, because it will just be that cheap anyway.

nextweek2 4y ago

I look at these robots and see the business case that they could be used to take care of the elderly. They could literally do the heavy lifting in care homes, leaving caregivers to do the more gentle tasks. There’s a big market there that would only grow, given current demographics. I don’t see the Tesla bot catching up with Boston Dynamics any time soon.

prmoustache 4y ago
Can't most of the "heavy lifting" be done by more specialized machine anyway? I mean besides electric beds and chairs there isn't much left. I'd rather give powered exosqueletons to caregivers if they need more power to lift an overweight person than use a robot for that application anyway.
epistemer 4y ago
[dead]
ben_w 4y ago
Maybe, but based on what I saw in my mother and grandmother in their old age, I think androids in general (not just Boston Dynamic) have a long way to go just on the "accidentally terrifying" front, let alone capabilities. Even for me, things like the following video are the wrong side of uncanny valley: https://youtu.be/uXlQuTRSmzc?t=270 https://youtu.be/uXlQuTRSmzc?t=270

spaceman_2020 4y ago

The business case will eventually be selling robotic companions to chronically lonely people. Loneliness is arguably the biggest under-addressed problem in the wealthy developed world.

Tozen 4y ago
I can kind of see that, in terms of robot pets or sex robots. Clearly robot pets are going to be more marketable. Sex bots will definitely be a weird niche, until some very revolutionary (if not scary) breakthroughs happen. Boston Dynamics seems to be making a much broader business case than just lonely people. For instance warehouse workers, factory workers, bartenders, dangerous jobs, interplanetary explorer, etc... There are a lot places where such humanoid robots can end up, which is way beyond a "lonely" people market.
- prmoustache 4y ago
  I feel exosqueletons are a more interesting approach anyway. Maybe robots would do less errors but I don't know, most of the times I tried an AI it would understand most of what I asked but if I would miss to precise some details but it would still do the job while an human would ask for more precision on the request. I would hate my robot to break stuff or put stuff in shelve C while I wanted it in shelve A and have to ask him again. Sure sometimes human workers also assume things instead of asking for more precise direction but I have the feeling we are more easily puzzled while an AI seems to be trained to be overconfident in order to be useful.
- winReInstall 4y ago
  Also wage supression towards zero. Some companies do more for UBI then the biggest revolutionary ever could do..

Existenceblinks 4y ago

Make me think does living things' evolution make of pure functional utility purpose?