5 ms·

Yeah, that is not going to happen. The momentum that EVs have at the moment, I would be surprised if there even is a mainstream ICE car available in 2035.

phpisthebest 4y ago
There are still very serious concerns with Used Market values, and the ablity for people to not buy a ticking time bomb that is a battery replacement on the used market Unless that is solved EV;s will never break 20-30% of sales
- seanmcdirmid 4y ago
  Used cars are already ticking time bombs because of the engine, transmissions, etc…being able to measure battery wear definitively without hiring an mechanic to closely go over it actually makes an EV a much safer used car buy than an ICE.
  - phpisthebest 4y ago
    >>being able to measure battery wear definitively That is the problem right there, I do not believe they can do that that definitively, and there are more than a few horror stories already where a person buys a Used EV, the battery tested fine on purchase, but then just a few months later a cell goes out... and since you can not just replace a single cell well now they have a $20,000 bill often more than the car is worth >>Used cars are already ticking time bombs because of the engine, transmissions, etc this is a known risk already assimilated into the market, with network of repair options and 3rd party parts dealers to lower the cost of repairs EV manufacturers are trying (often successfully) at blocking these 3rd party repair options and making the cost to repair an EV $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
    - sokoloff 4y ago
      I agree that a definitive measure of battery health is not available (in two senses: the ones available are not conclusive and they are easily tampered with). I disagree that the batteries are not serviceable. My car has had a module replacement which served to restore battery and vehicle capacity after a single module (mostly) failed. That was done at a dealer under warranty, but there are many aftermarket suppliers capable of doing the same (and I’d have DIY’d it in my driveway if it wasn’t covered under warranty).
      - phpisthebest 4y ago
        Under the guise of safety most manufacturers have or in the process of blocking 3rd party batteries. Electrify America also at one point in time only allowed "certified manufacturers" to charge on their network, blocking "homemade" EV's and repaired EV;s Tesla Famously have blocked their supercharger network from rebuilds as well It is not a technical limitation it is an economic and political one. >That was done at a dealer under warranty And most likely with out that warranty your car would have been economically totaled. Which is normally any repair that costs 55-60% of the current market value.
        sokoloff 4y ago
        Incorrect (to the point of being FUD, IMO). If it happened again now (outside the warranty period), it would cost me ~6-8 hours and around $70 for the module.
    - seanmcdirmid 4y ago
      > and since you can not just replace a single cell well now they have a $20,000 bill often more than the car is worth If you are referring to the conservative-popular meme that I think you are, that wasn’t even for an BEV, but an old PHEV whose (fairly small) battery was out of production. > EV manufacturers are trying (often successfully) at blocking these 3rd party repair options and making the cost to repair an EV $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ Mechanics are expensive these days, even for ICEs. Yes, repairing an EV is expensive, but so is repairing a newer ICE. I would love to hear criticisms against EVs that didn’t apply to cars in general.
      - phpisthebest 4y ago
        [flagged]
    - tlb 4y ago
      While it's true that you can't replace one cell, you also don't need to because the pack is designed to lose individual cells without significantly impacting the range. It's not like they're not all in series or something. They're paralleled in medium groups (72 on original model S) with individual fuses, so a single lost cell cuts the capacity of that one group by 1/72. Active rebalancing can transfer charge between groups, so it's hardly noticeable.
- Symbiote 4y ago
  Norway is at around 80% of new car sales being electric.
azinman2 4y ago
That’s a little more than 10 years. The charger networks, battery issues in the cold, availability of the raw materials, etc won’t scale that quickly. It’ll probably take closer to 20 years for the tipping point to be reached.
jefftk 4y ago
> I would be surprised if there even is a mainstream ICE car available in 2035. I'd be happy to bet on that! There's no state in the US where electric cars are a majority of what are sold today, with the highest fraction being CA at 18%. [1]. Naive extrapolation gives you 57% of CA in 2030 and 30% of US. [2] The combination of "some people are going to still prefer gas cars" and "those people are concentrated in some states" means I'd expect many ICE options available in 2035. [1] https://www.gov.ca.gov/2022/10/19/california-zev-sales-near-18-of-all-new-car-sales-in-2022/ https://www.gov.ca.gov/2022/10/19/california-zev-sales-near-... [2] https://evadoption.com/ev-sales/ev-sales-forecasts/ https://evadoption.com/ev-sales/ev-sales-forecasts/

phpisthebest 4y ago

There are still very serious concerns with Used Market values, and the ablity for people to not buy a ticking time bomb that is a battery replacement on the used market Unless that is solved EV;s will never break 20-30% of sales

seanmcdirmid 4y ago
Used cars are already ticking time bombs because of the engine, transmissions, etc…being able to measure battery wear definitively without hiring an mechanic to closely go over it actually makes an EV a much safer used car buy than an ICE.
- phpisthebest 4y ago
  >>being able to measure battery wear definitively That is the problem right there, I do not believe they can do that that definitively, and there are more than a few horror stories already where a person buys a Used EV, the battery tested fine on purchase, but then just a few months later a cell goes out... and since you can not just replace a single cell well now they have a $20,000 bill often more than the car is worth >>Used cars are already ticking time bombs because of the engine, transmissions, etc this is a known risk already assimilated into the market, with network of repair options and 3rd party parts dealers to lower the cost of repairs EV manufacturers are trying (often successfully) at blocking these 3rd party repair options and making the cost to repair an EV $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
  - sokoloff 4y ago
    I agree that a definitive measure of battery health is not available (in two senses: the ones available are not conclusive and they are easily tampered with). I disagree that the batteries are not serviceable. My car has had a module replacement which served to restore battery and vehicle capacity after a single module (mostly) failed. That was done at a dealer under warranty, but there are many aftermarket suppliers capable of doing the same (and I’d have DIY’d it in my driveway if it wasn’t covered under warranty).
    - phpisthebest 4y ago
      Under the guise of safety most manufacturers have or in the process of blocking 3rd party batteries. Electrify America also at one point in time only allowed "certified manufacturers" to charge on their network, blocking "homemade" EV's and repaired EV;s Tesla Famously have blocked their supercharger network from rebuilds as well It is not a technical limitation it is an economic and political one. >That was done at a dealer under warranty And most likely with out that warranty your car would have been economically totaled. Which is normally any repair that costs 55-60% of the current market value.
      - sokoloff 4y ago
        Incorrect (to the point of being FUD, IMO). If it happened again now (outside the warranty period), it would cost me ~6-8 hours and around $70 for the module.
  - seanmcdirmid 4y ago
    > and since you can not just replace a single cell well now they have a $20,000 bill often more than the car is worth If you are referring to the conservative-popular meme that I think you are, that wasn’t even for an BEV, but an old PHEV whose (fairly small) battery was out of production. > EV manufacturers are trying (often successfully) at blocking these 3rd party repair options and making the cost to repair an EV $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ Mechanics are expensive these days, even for ICEs. Yes, repairing an EV is expensive, but so is repairing a newer ICE. I would love to hear criticisms against EVs that didn’t apply to cars in general.
    - phpisthebest 4y ago
      [flagged]
  - tlb 4y ago
    While it's true that you can't replace one cell, you also don't need to because the pack is designed to lose individual cells without significantly impacting the range. It's not like they're not all in series or something. They're paralleled in medium groups (72 on original model S) with individual fuses, so a single lost cell cuts the capacity of that one group by 1/72. Active rebalancing can transfer charge between groups, so it's hardly noticeable.
Symbiote 4y ago
Norway is at around 80% of new car sales being electric.

azinman2 4y ago

That’s a little more than 10 years. The charger networks, battery issues in the cold, availability of the raw materials, etc won’t scale that quickly. It’ll probably take closer to 20 years for the tipping point to be reached.

jefftk 4y ago

> I would be surprised if there even is a mainstream ICE car available in 2035. I'd be happy to bet on that! There's no state in the US where electric cars are a majority of what are sold today, with the highest fraction being CA at 18%. [1]. Naive extrapolation gives you 57% of CA in 2030 and 30% of US. [2] The combination of "some people are going to still prefer gas cars" and "those people are concentrated in some states" means I'd expect many ICE options available in 2035. [1] https://www.gov.ca.gov/2022/10/19/california-zev-sales-near-18-of-all-new-car-sales-in-2022/ https://www.gov.ca.gov/2022/10/19/california-zev-sales-near-... [2] https://evadoption.com/ev-sales/ev-sales-forecasts/ https://evadoption.com/ev-sales/ev-sales-forecasts/