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not surprising. now that the covid related spike is far enough in the past I expect inflation to be down drastically since the throttle that was low rates is no

not surprising. now that the covid related spike is far enough in the past I expect inflation to be down drastically since the throttle that was low rates is no longer being pressed on. question is, will the Fed stop raising rates soon enough?

ethanbond 4y ago
YoY is comparing Jan 2021 to Jan 2022. What’s the reset?
- endisneigh 4y ago
  Inflation spiked and is going down. The nature of YoY changes is such that even if prices stayed the same (not inflation, which is inherently 2nd order) inflation will go down. Hence, the reset. If you consider COVID an anomaly, which it is, this is the natural conclusion, which we're now seeing. in any case, I adjusted the comment to clarify
Supermancho 4y ago
> will the Fed stop raising rates soon enough? This is not a meaningful phrase.
- endisneigh 4y ago
  Sure it is, raising rates, e.g. 0.25 this time, 0.50 this time, etc results in increased likelihood of a recession. This is why the rate has been slowing down (e.g. 0.75 last time to a likely 0.50 this time) in order to have a soft landing.
  - Supermancho 4y ago
    >>> will the Fed stop raising rates soon enough? >> This is not a meaningful phrase > Sure it is, No, it is not. You meant some sort of recession, as if thats an undesired massive financial correction. This has been a long time coming and is better in the long run if the correction happens sooner than later. Good luck with whatever.
    - endisneigh 4y ago
      Ah - a doomer. Carry on then.
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  Why not? It's entirely possible to overcorrect. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-delayed-inflation-fight-sparks-fears-policy-overcorrection-2022-10-05/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-delayed-inflation-fi...
  - tarboreus 4y ago
    It's also possible some teenagers who stole a car for a joyride might drive too slowly. Wouldn't bet on it, though.
    - ceejayoz 4y ago
      https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/29/federal-reserve-recession-inflation-rates-00021119 https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/29/federal-reserve-rec... > Nine times since 1961, the central bank has embarked on a series of interest rate increases to rein in inflation. Eight times a recession followed. The only true “soft landing” — as significant rate hikes with no subsequent slumps are called — occurred in 1994, according to a March 25 report by investment bank Piper Sandler. Not a sterling track record.

ethanbond 4y ago

YoY is comparing Jan 2021 to Jan 2022. What’s the reset?

endisneigh 4y ago
Inflation spiked and is going down. The nature of YoY changes is such that even if prices stayed the same (not inflation, which is inherently 2nd order) inflation will go down. Hence, the reset. If you consider COVID an anomaly, which it is, this is the natural conclusion, which we're now seeing. in any case, I adjusted the comment to clarify

Supermancho 4y ago

> will the Fed stop raising rates soon enough? This is not a meaningful phrase.

endisneigh 4y ago
Sure it is, raising rates, e.g. 0.25 this time, 0.50 this time, etc results in increased likelihood of a recession. This is why the rate has been slowing down (e.g. 0.75 last time to a likely 0.50 this time) in order to have a soft landing.
- Supermancho 4y ago
  >>> will the Fed stop raising rates soon enough? >> This is not a meaningful phrase > Sure it is, No, it is not. You meant some sort of recession, as if thats an undesired massive financial correction. This has been a long time coming and is better in the long run if the correction happens sooner than later. Good luck with whatever.
  - endisneigh 4y ago
    Ah - a doomer. Carry on then.
ceejayoz 4y ago
Why not? It's entirely possible to overcorrect. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-delayed-inflation-fight-sparks-fears-policy-overcorrection-2022-10-05/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-delayed-inflation-fi...
- tarboreus 4y ago
  It's also possible some teenagers who stole a car for a joyride might drive too slowly. Wouldn't bet on it, though.
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/29/federal-reserve-recession-inflation-rates-00021119 https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/29/federal-reserve-rec... > Nine times since 1961, the central bank has embarked on a series of interest rate increases to rein in inflation. Eight times a recession followed. The only true “soft landing” — as significant rate hikes with no subsequent slumps are called — occurred in 1994, according to a March 25 report by investment bank Piper Sandler. Not a sterling track record.