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2008 lasted nearly 17 months. The hard part is deciding when the recession actually started. The media and government is in denial, so they'd tell you we aren't
by ryanSrich 4y ago
2008 lasted nearly 17 months. The hard part is deciding when the recession actually started. The media and government is in denial, so they'd tell you we aren't even in a recession yet. But the rule of thumb is typically two negative quarters of GDP growth, which we hit this summer.
If you run a VC backed business my suggestion is 24-30 months of runway is a good starting point.
As far as individuals go, it's not a bad idea to mirror this advice. Have essentially 2 to 2.5 years of income saved in the event that you get laid off and can't find a job for a long time. Hopefully it never comes to that, but it never hurts to be prepared.
- kasey_junk 4y agoIt’s also hard to figure out when the recession ends. The q1/q2 numbers were more than made up by the q3 gdp growth. The numbers for q4 aren’t out yet but the consensus thinks they’ll be slightly positive making 2022 a positive year. That’s after 2021 which was a barn burner. The GDP curve is already nothing like 2008 so it’s hard to use it as a guide.
- themitigating 4y ago"The media and government is in denial, so they'd tell you we aren't even in a recession yet." There are costant headlines about layoffs. Also you said that a recession has a defintion, if that hasn't happened how is the media and government in denial?
- ryanSrich 4y agoLike I said in my comment, it did happen. This summer we hit 2 quarters of negative GDP growth. At the time, and even now, the media is suddenly moving the goal posts and trying to redefine what a recession is.
- themitigating 4y agoBecause there isn't an official definition of a recession. That two quarter isn't a government metric.