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> We don't know if there is enough USD in Tether's coffer to redeem all the withdrawals. Isn't that a good reason to get away from it? Since, it seems to just

> We don't know if there is enough USD in Tether's coffer to redeem all the withdrawals. Isn't that a good reason to get away from it? Since, it seems to just be a massively fraudulent vehicle that has been a direct cause of both booms and busts in Bitcoin? This is from 2017: https://www.wsj.com/articles/large-bitcoin-player-manipulated-price-sharply-higher-study-says-11572863400 https://www.wsj.com/articles/large-bitcoin-player-manipulate...

sandworm101 4y ago
>> seems to just be a massively fraudulent vehicle that has been a direct cause of both booms and busts ... Ya. It's crypto. Any and every aspect of crypto is at least partially deserving of such description.
- MuffinFlavored 4y ago
  What about the stocks that make up the S&P500/the ETFs/mutual funds that track it? I know it isn't on the scale of "crypto scam" but a lot of people think along the lines of: can you trust the U.S. government to do the right thing/be efficient/effective? not really therefore, lots of debt that'll never get paid back corporations barely turning a profit. https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=idx_sp500&o=-pe https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=idx_sp500&o=-pe ton of stocks with high P/E or no earnings in the S&P wall street/robinhood "manipulating" markets, basically designing it almost like a casino to extract money from those who get addicted to "trading" stock market is where wall street + U.S. corporations (greedy CEOs/boards) + government/politics (regulation, interest rates, etc.) all meet and it's less fraudulent than crypto? i'm not saying this is what i think. i read a lot of this (pretty much MAGA crazed conspiracy theorist weirdos) on stocktwits. a non zero amount of people think this.
  - bhelkey 4y ago
    > corporations barely turning a profit...ton of stocks with high P/E or no earnings in the S&P In the first 20 companies you compare to scams is Amazon, a company with $500 Billion dollars in sales last year [1]. [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/revenue https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/revenu...
  - jakelazaroff 4y ago
    Okay? A non zero amount of people think the Earth is flat. That doesn’t mean we need to take them seriously.
    - canadianfella 4y ago
      [dead]
  - DonHopkins 4y ago
    Maybe you should be more discerning about what MAGA crazed conspiracy theorist weirdos you read, and what MAGA crazed conspiracy theories you spread.
    - MuffinFlavored 4y ago
      I wouldn't say I'm aiming to spread them. I'm asking a bunch of people more educated than I (HackerNews readers) if there is any truth/concern to any of it. You can find 10 posts in the past 30 days where people here are saying "omg, greedy corporation does greedy thing". Just the other day we had a post saying "maybe the U.S. economy won't continue to grow forever and the stock market won't continue to return 7% a year" Asked ChatGPT > Is Wall Street known to be trustworthy and moral? > Over the years there have been many instances of scandals, manipulation and fraud on Wall Street, which has damaged the reputation of the street. Asked it this as well > Are there instances of the U.S. government hiding the truth/lying to its citizens/being inefficient with taxpayer money? > There have been instances in history where the U.S. government has been accused of hiding the truth, lying to its citizens, or being inefficient with taxpayer money. I'm just trying to have a conversation. These MAGA people get a ton of power when you shut them down because they can point and say "see! listen! they don't want our points to be voiced! that means we're onto something"
      - danaris 4y ago
        ChatGPT's answers on questions like this aren't going to be usefully correct: they're merely going to repeat at best a synthesis/summary of what people have said on the topic in extant writings. But this is a question about trust and morals, which cannot be decided merely by consensus; any meaningful answer to it must be rooted in an actual value system and an understanding of trust.
        wolverine876 4y ago
        > ChatGPT's answers on questions like this aren't going to be usefully correct: they're merely going to repeat at best a synthesis/summary of what people have said It might repeat what some people have said. ChatGPT isn't designed to determine a consensus or to use a representative sample.
  - lkrubner 4y ago
    >> therefore, lots of debt that'll never get paid back The last time the national government of an English speaking nation defaulted on its debt was on January 2 of 1672, with the Stop Of The Exchequer: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stop_of_the_Exchequer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stop_of_the_Exchequer We've now seen 351 years of debts being paid on time, so why would you think the government is suddenly not going to pay its debt? You'd need a strong thesis to explain why the 351 year old trend is coming to an end.
    - MuffinFlavored 4y ago
      Never said I don't think we'll pay our debt. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S How will that not limit us going forward / is the current rate of "just add it to debt/never pay it back" sustainable?
      - chii 4y ago
        If people are willing to lend to the gov't (by purchasing bonds), then why is it not sustainable? Those who are doing the lending is effectively proclaiming that they don't foresee a stoppage of future lending.
        MuffinFlavored 4y ago
        just because we can doesn't mean we should? Type "At what level does debt-to-GDP ratio hinder a nation?" into ChatGPT I'm not talking about collapse, I'm talking about hinderance going forward Raising debt, gotta service it, gotta raise taxes to pay for it or cut costs, no? https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/07/24/facts-about-the-national-debt/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/07/24/facts-about...
        danaris 4y ago
        ChatGPT would only have a cogent answer to that if there were a well-accepted cogent answer in the extant literature. To the best of my understanding, any answers to that question in extant literature are either going to be highly theoretical, or about situations that are not sufficiently similar to that of the modern US to be helpful.
- ryanSrich 4y ago
  I used to believe this wasn’t the case. Even the ICO craze in 2017/2018 didn’t sway my opinion. I genuinely thought crypto was the future of finance. This most recent bull cycle from 2020 to late 2021 changed my mind. I believe crypto use cases don’t extend far beyond fraud, gambling, or purchasing illegal goods. Every new project that claims to have some inherent value is just a disguise for gambling, and or straight up fraud.
  - aaronwalker 4y ago
    > *don’t extend far beyond fraud, gambling, or purchasing illegal goods. There are many use cases outside of these. See Cross-border payments, censorship-resistance, trust networks, access to credit, etc.
    - sandworm101 4y ago
      >> See Cross-border payments, censorship-resistance Both being illegal. If something is censored by government, the tools to bypass or defeat that censorship are likely illegal, especially if used to distribute uncensored copied of that material. If governments have regulated payments across a particular border, bypassing those regulations is also very likely illegal.
    - D13Fd 4y ago
      > Cross-border payments My impression is that cross-border payments are a pretty small use case, especially if you mean legal cross-border payments. I.e., “something the law allows you to do but you can’t find a financial institution to do it.” > censorship-resistance Sure, but again, fairly niche at this point in time in western countries. Most financial censorship cases I’ve heard of in the U.S. sounded pretty well deserved. > trust networks This is a niche of a niche outside. You could just say “cryptography enthusiasts” instead. > access to credit Example? As in, someone with bad credit can still borrow on crypto?
  - spookthesunset 4y ago
    Crypto is the greatest solution in search of a problem we’ve got in the tech world.
Vanit 4y ago
I think the point is you can't get away from it if the liquidity doesn't exist.
- jeroenhd 4y ago
  Not everyone can, but until there's a proper bank run, (small) gamblers can get out while the currency still has some liquidity.
1vuio0pswjnm7 4y ago
March 31, 2021 reserves breakdown This was published as a result of the agreement Tether made with the NY State Attorney General. If the NYAG had not taken action against Tether, would they have ever released this information. https://tether.to/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/march-31-2021-reserves-breakdown-tether.pdf https://tether.to/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/march-31-2021-r... Note the percentage of cash and the percentage of "commercial paper" for which none of the issuers are disclosed. Are those issuers banks. Are they other crypto startups. Are they affiliated crypto entities (like Alameda was to FTX). Perhaps I have missed the other pages of this financial disclosure from Tether, where further details are found.
- voytec 4y ago
  > https://tether.to/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/march-31-2021-reserves-breakdown-tether.pdf https://tether.to/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/march-31-2021-r... This PDF URL permanently redirects (HTTP 301) to https://tether.to/transparency https://tether.to/transparency
  - 1vuio0pswjnm7 4y ago
    https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https://tether.to/en/tether-addresses-fud-around-secured-loans-reveals-plans-to-reduce-these-to-zero-in-2023 https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https:...
- evdubs 4y ago
  The latest report [1] shows < 0.1% assets held in commercial paper. They didn't disclose individual issuers, but they've previously disclosed the credit ratings for the commercial paper and most were A-2, A-1, and A-1+ (equivalent to BBB and better for bonds). Since they were able to rotate out of the commercial paper, the credit worthiness of it was good enough. There's a separate line item for "Secured Loans" which is where money lent to affiliated crypto entities would go. Tether previously stated that these loans would also be wound down. [2] [1] https://assets.ctfassets.net/vyse88cgwfbl/1Xfu4398CIoMiuKjPhvnHM/6d1608c90bb775d2d432b7b24264da28/ESO.02_Std_ISAE_3000R_Opinion_30-9-2022_RC134792022BD0548.pdf https://assets.ctfassets.net/vyse88cgwfbl/1Xfu4398CIoMiuKjPh... [2] https://tether.to/en/tether-addresses-fud-around-secured-loans-reveals-plans-to-reduce-these-to-zero-in-2023 https://tether.to/en/tether-addresses-fud-around-secured-loa...

sandworm101 4y ago

>> seems to just be a massively fraudulent vehicle that has been a direct cause of both booms and busts ... Ya. It's crypto. Any and every aspect of crypto is at least partially deserving of such description.

MuffinFlavored 4y ago
What about the stocks that make up the S&P500/the ETFs/mutual funds that track it? I know it isn't on the scale of "crypto scam" but a lot of people think along the lines of: can you trust the U.S. government to do the right thing/be efficient/effective? not really therefore, lots of debt that'll never get paid back corporations barely turning a profit. https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=idx_sp500&o=-pe https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=idx_sp500&o=-pe ton of stocks with high P/E or no earnings in the S&P wall street/robinhood "manipulating" markets, basically designing it almost like a casino to extract money from those who get addicted to "trading" stock market is where wall street + U.S. corporations (greedy CEOs/boards) + government/politics (regulation, interest rates, etc.) all meet and it's less fraudulent than crypto? i'm not saying this is what i think. i read a lot of this (pretty much MAGA crazed conspiracy theorist weirdos) on stocktwits. a non zero amount of people think this.
- bhelkey 4y ago
  > corporations barely turning a profit...ton of stocks with high P/E or no earnings in the S&P In the first 20 companies you compare to scams is Amazon, a company with $500 Billion dollars in sales last year [1]. [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/revenue https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/revenu...
- jakelazaroff 4y ago
  Okay? A non zero amount of people think the Earth is flat. That doesn’t mean we need to take them seriously.
  - canadianfella 4y ago
    [dead]
- DonHopkins 4y ago
  Maybe you should be more discerning about what MAGA crazed conspiracy theorist weirdos you read, and what MAGA crazed conspiracy theories you spread.
  - MuffinFlavored 4y ago
    I wouldn't say I'm aiming to spread them. I'm asking a bunch of people more educated than I (HackerNews readers) if there is any truth/concern to any of it. You can find 10 posts in the past 30 days where people here are saying "omg, greedy corporation does greedy thing". Just the other day we had a post saying "maybe the U.S. economy won't continue to grow forever and the stock market won't continue to return 7% a year" Asked ChatGPT > Is Wall Street known to be trustworthy and moral? > Over the years there have been many instances of scandals, manipulation and fraud on Wall Street, which has damaged the reputation of the street. Asked it this as well > Are there instances of the U.S. government hiding the truth/lying to its citizens/being inefficient with taxpayer money? > There have been instances in history where the U.S. government has been accused of hiding the truth, lying to its citizens, or being inefficient with taxpayer money. I'm just trying to have a conversation. These MAGA people get a ton of power when you shut them down because they can point and say "see! listen! they don't want our points to be voiced! that means we're onto something"
    - danaris 4y ago
      ChatGPT's answers on questions like this aren't going to be usefully correct: they're merely going to repeat at best a synthesis/summary of what people have said on the topic in extant writings. But this is a question about trust and morals, which cannot be decided merely by consensus; any meaningful answer to it must be rooted in an actual value system and an understanding of trust.
      - wolverine876 4y ago
        > ChatGPT's answers on questions like this aren't going to be usefully correct: they're merely going to repeat at best a synthesis/summary of what people have said It might repeat what some people have said. ChatGPT isn't designed to determine a consensus or to use a representative sample.
- lkrubner 4y ago
  >> therefore, lots of debt that'll never get paid back The last time the national government of an English speaking nation defaulted on its debt was on January 2 of 1672, with the Stop Of The Exchequer: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stop_of_the_Exchequer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stop_of_the_Exchequer We've now seen 351 years of debts being paid on time, so why would you think the government is suddenly not going to pay its debt? You'd need a strong thesis to explain why the 351 year old trend is coming to an end.
  - MuffinFlavored 4y ago
    Never said I don't think we'll pay our debt. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S How will that not limit us going forward / is the current rate of "just add it to debt/never pay it back" sustainable?
    - chii 4y ago
      If people are willing to lend to the gov't (by purchasing bonds), then why is it not sustainable? Those who are doing the lending is effectively proclaiming that they don't foresee a stoppage of future lending.
      - MuffinFlavored 4y ago
        just because we can doesn't mean we should? Type "At what level does debt-to-GDP ratio hinder a nation?" into ChatGPT I'm not talking about collapse, I'm talking about hinderance going forward Raising debt, gotta service it, gotta raise taxes to pay for it or cut costs, no? https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/07/24/facts-about-the-national-debt/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/07/24/facts-about...
        danaris 4y ago
        ChatGPT would only have a cogent answer to that if there were a well-accepted cogent answer in the extant literature. To the best of my understanding, any answers to that question in extant literature are either going to be highly theoretical, or about situations that are not sufficiently similar to that of the modern US to be helpful.
ryanSrich 4y ago
I used to believe this wasn’t the case. Even the ICO craze in 2017/2018 didn’t sway my opinion. I genuinely thought crypto was the future of finance. This most recent bull cycle from 2020 to late 2021 changed my mind. I believe crypto use cases don’t extend far beyond fraud, gambling, or purchasing illegal goods. Every new project that claims to have some inherent value is just a disguise for gambling, and or straight up fraud.
- aaronwalker 4y ago
  > *don’t extend far beyond fraud, gambling, or purchasing illegal goods. There are many use cases outside of these. See Cross-border payments, censorship-resistance, trust networks, access to credit, etc.
  - sandworm101 4y ago
    >> See Cross-border payments, censorship-resistance Both being illegal. If something is censored by government, the tools to bypass or defeat that censorship are likely illegal, especially if used to distribute uncensored copied of that material. If governments have regulated payments across a particular border, bypassing those regulations is also very likely illegal.
  - D13Fd 4y ago
    > Cross-border payments My impression is that cross-border payments are a pretty small use case, especially if you mean legal cross-border payments. I.e., “something the law allows you to do but you can’t find a financial institution to do it.” > censorship-resistance Sure, but again, fairly niche at this point in time in western countries. Most financial censorship cases I’ve heard of in the U.S. sounded pretty well deserved. > trust networks This is a niche of a niche outside. You could just say “cryptography enthusiasts” instead. > access to credit Example? As in, someone with bad credit can still borrow on crypto?
- spookthesunset 4y ago
  Crypto is the greatest solution in search of a problem we’ve got in the tech world.

Vanit 4y ago

I think the point is you can't get away from it if the liquidity doesn't exist.

jeroenhd 4y ago
Not everyone can, but until there's a proper bank run, (small) gamblers can get out while the currency still has some liquidity.

1vuio0pswjnm7 4y ago

March 31, 2021 reserves breakdown This was published as a result of the agreement Tether made with the NY State Attorney General. If the NYAG had not taken action against Tether, would they have ever released this information. https://tether.to/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/march-31-2021-reserves-breakdown-tether.pdf https://tether.to/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/march-31-2021-r... Note the percentage of cash and the percentage of "commercial paper" for which none of the issuers are disclosed. Are those issuers banks. Are they other crypto startups. Are they affiliated crypto entities (like Alameda was to FTX). Perhaps I have missed the other pages of this financial disclosure from Tether, where further details are found.

voytec 4y ago
> https://tether.to/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/march-31-2021-reserves-breakdown-tether.pdf https://tether.to/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/march-31-2021-r... This PDF URL permanently redirects (HTTP 301) to https://tether.to/transparency https://tether.to/transparency
- 1vuio0pswjnm7 4y ago
  https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https://tether.to/en/tether-addresses-fud-around-secured-loans-reveals-plans-to-reduce-these-to-zero-in-2023 https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https:...
evdubs 4y ago
The latest report [1] shows < 0.1% assets held in commercial paper. They didn't disclose individual issuers, but they've previously disclosed the credit ratings for the commercial paper and most were A-2, A-1, and A-1+ (equivalent to BBB and better for bonds). Since they were able to rotate out of the commercial paper, the credit worthiness of it was good enough. There's a separate line item for "Secured Loans" which is where money lent to affiliated crypto entities would go. Tether previously stated that these loans would also be wound down. [2] [1] https://assets.ctfassets.net/vyse88cgwfbl/1Xfu4398CIoMiuKjPhvnHM/6d1608c90bb775d2d432b7b24264da28/ESO.02_Std_ISAE_3000R_Opinion_30-9-2022_RC134792022BD0548.pdf https://assets.ctfassets.net/vyse88cgwfbl/1Xfu4398CIoMiuKjPh... [2] https://tether.to/en/tether-addresses-fud-around-secured-loans-reveals-plans-to-reduce-these-to-zero-in-2023 https://tether.to/en/tether-addresses-fud-around-secured-loa...