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I think people are underestimating the problems that a blanket Tether ban from North American markets would cause. You think a Tether ban would cause people to

I think people are underestimating the problems that a blanket Tether ban from North American markets would cause. You think a Tether ban would cause people to switch to USDC? Ok, but that means some Tether needs to vanish and some USDC needs to be created. How does that happen? Ideally, it goes from Tether -> USD -> USDC... and there lies the problem. We don't know if there is enough USD in Tether's coffer to redeem all the withdrawals. And if there is not, or even if there is a doubt about it, then it becomes a game where the last person to withdraw loses. How would that look for crypto in general? How would people react to USDC if they or someone they know just got burned by another stablecoin last week?

jasonlingx 4y ago
If Tether is insolvent then better to ban it earlier than later, before it becomes even “too bigger” to fail.
- grugagag 4y ago
  This exercise will likely make Tether fail
  - _3u10 4y ago
    Exactly everything is insolvent. If tomorrow people were like hey everyone USD is going to fail you’d get the Great Depression unless the fed printed money. And there isn’t nearly enough paper money for it.
    - seanhunter 4y ago
      That's wildly and obviously untrue. Let's look at the definition of insolvency[1] "when an individual or company can no longer meet their financial obligations to lenders as debts become due." Take a trivial example - a person with no debts. You have to concede such people do exist in the world. They are by definition not insolvent, and cannot be. Even if the currency completely collapsed and USD had zero value this would not make them insolvent because they have o debt and therefore no financial obligations. [1] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/insolvency.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/insolvency.asp
  - kevin_thibedeau 4y ago
    Then they didn't deserve to succeed.
  - trog 4y ago
    > This exercise will likely make Tether fail Insolvent companies usually fail anyway. It's better to catch them early before they can make things even worse for their customers and investors.
    - KRAKRISMOTT 4y ago
      Not really, if they fail because of bank run reasons, it might be better for them to liquidate the assets slowly first, to stave off the run. Ymmv, check the accounting.
      - adam_arthur 4y ago
        There is no possibility of a "bank run" if tether is actually 1:1 backed with USD. But it's almost certainly not, and that's why it's effectively fraudulent
        KRAKRISMOTT 4y ago
        They could be backed in USD denominated illiquid assets that may take time to unwound (it's kinda dumb from a treasury management POV if you keep everything in cash).
        adam_arthur 4y ago
        They can use overnight instruments, and its still pretty much impossible for there to be a bank run. But it begs the question, is Tether meant to be a viable stablecoin, or is it a fractional reserve piggy bank for the Tether owners to earn interest from? Clearly they're running it like the latter. Why would the crypto industry consolidate on something scammy like that?
        KRAKRISMOTT 4y ago
        That's a good point. If it's a pure stablecoin, would it be sustainable? It doesn't make sense to run a stablecoin as a charity/loss leader as there is a very real cost to treasury management and depreciation unless Bitfinex is trying to commoditize their complement.
  - lmm 4y ago
    If it's a bubble then better to pop it sooner rather than later.
  - seanhunter 4y ago
    If it's insolvent it already has failed - this exercise is just about admitting that failure and making the facts known.
  - birracerveza 4y ago
    Finally!
justapassenger 4y ago
Your whole argument is let’s not dig, so we don’t expose a fraud?
- pcthrowaway 4y ago
  That was my understanding at first, but re-reading, I think it's just pointing out that digging is likely to expose a fraud with massive consequences (which I agree with). Of course, we should still do it
ABeeSea 4y ago
I’m ok with this.
partiallypro 4y ago
> We don't know if there is enough USD in Tether's coffer to redeem all the withdrawals. Isn't that a good reason to get away from it? Since, it seems to just be a massively fraudulent vehicle that has been a direct cause of both booms and busts in Bitcoin? This is from 2017: https://www.wsj.com/articles/large-bitcoin-player-manipulated-price-sharply-higher-study-says-11572863400 https://www.wsj.com/articles/large-bitcoin-player-manipulate...
- sandworm101 4y ago
  >> seems to just be a massively fraudulent vehicle that has been a direct cause of both booms and busts ... Ya. It's crypto. Any and every aspect of crypto is at least partially deserving of such description.
  - MuffinFlavored 4y ago
    What about the stocks that make up the S&P500/the ETFs/mutual funds that track it? I know it isn't on the scale of "crypto scam" but a lot of people think along the lines of: can you trust the U.S. government to do the right thing/be efficient/effective? not really therefore, lots of debt that'll never get paid back corporations barely turning a profit. https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=idx_sp500&o=-pe https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=idx_sp500&o=-pe ton of stocks with high P/E or no earnings in the S&P wall street/robinhood "manipulating" markets, basically designing it almost like a casino to extract money from those who get addicted to "trading" stock market is where wall street + U.S. corporations (greedy CEOs/boards) + government/politics (regulation, interest rates, etc.) all meet and it's less fraudulent than crypto? i'm not saying this is what i think. i read a lot of this (pretty much MAGA crazed conspiracy theorist weirdos) on stocktwits. a non zero amount of people think this.
    - bhelkey 4y ago
      > corporations barely turning a profit...ton of stocks with high P/E or no earnings in the S&P In the first 20 companies you compare to scams is Amazon, a company with $500 Billion dollars in sales last year [1]. [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/revenue https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/revenu...
sumeno 4y ago
> We don't know if there is enough USD in Tether's coffer to redeem all the withdrawals We can be pretty confident that they don't. If they did they would have a third party accounting firm provide an attestation that they did
- nl 4y ago
  You mean like these ones? https://tether.to/en/transparency/#reports https://tether.to/en/transparency/#reports The most recent was Sep 2022 by BDO. They have a mix of assets (as you'd expect, because they have different liquidity requirements). But the majority is in short term (<45 day) US Treasury Bonds or Cash and Bank deposits. The other largest asset class is money-market funds, which is a pretty well understood asset class.
  - sumeno 4y ago
    Weird how they said they were going to release monthly attestations through them and then did exactly one 4 months ago, and then in December BDO said they were going to stop dealing with crypto companies. Oh well, probably nothing!
    - nl 4y ago
      > they were going to release monthly attestations Did they say this? I thought it was quarterly (same as what Circle does with USDC) > in December BDO said they were going to stop dealing with crypto companies. Yeah who would blame them?
  - TylerE 4y ago
    What auditor are they on now? When even one’s in the Caymans don’t touch you that says something.
    - nl 4y ago
      Note that an attestation isn't an audit. It's not nothing though - certainly more than FTX had.
dcolkitt 4y ago
Most Tether users either aren't in North America and/or are directly holding on-chain. Add up all the US and Canadian centralized exchanges, and accounts for much less than 10% of Tether's outstanding float. Now I certainly don't know if Tether has enough reserves to redeem 100% of their supply, but I'm almost certain they can redeem 10%.
- acchow 4y ago
  How are you certain of this? Most countries' largest banks can't sustain a 10% redemption of deposits. That would be a bank run.
  - evdubs 4y ago
    Banks have short term liabilities (customer deposits and certificates of deposit) and long term assets (business loans, mortgage loans, etc.). A bank cannot call its business and mortgage loans from the borrower, so the maturity mismatch can create credit crunches for banks. Tether has short term liabilities (tokens) and short term assets (T-bills, money market funds, bank deposits, etc.). Because most of their assets are in short term "cash equivalent" assets with lots of liquidity, Tether can more easily deal with large redemptions as they did in April - July when their market cap went from $83B to $66B.
    - acchow 4y ago
      > Tether has short term liabilities (tokens) and short term assets (T-bills, money market funds, bank deposits, etc.) they claim.... We don't actually know what assets they really decided to hold.
      - evdubs 4y ago
        They claim and BDO Italia attests that these are the assets they hold. USDC likewise posts attestation reports, so we "know" Tether's assets as well as we do USDC's.
boring_twenties 4y ago
Can't it just go Tether -> BTC -> USDC?
- jakelazaroff 4y ago
  That exposes you to the price of BTC. USDT and USDC should both be pegged to USD, so (in theory) the market won’t move against you while you’re trading.
  - metaphor 4y ago
    How is that exposure material for a typical holder given the supposed "velocity of crypto"? Or did mean that the implied trade is direct USDT -> USDC? P.S. Genuine question; I don't dabble in crypto.
    - TedDoesntTalk 4y ago
      A BTC transaction can easily take 30 minutes to confirm. In that time, the price of BTC fluctuates and if there’s an exodus from tether to BTC, it could fluctuate a lot.
      - metaphor 4y ago
        So from what you're saying, I gather that in a hypothetical USDT -> BTC -> USDC repositioning, even if you were to execute the first USDT -> BTC leg, you wouldn't be able to execute the next BTC -> USDC leg until after this first transaction to BTC has been "confirmed", and each leg of the trade "can easily take 30 minutes to confirm" all the while exposing the position to BTC downside volatility risk? I find it very strange that crypto exchanges don't handle execution, confirmation and settlement in the same way as traditional markets. Also, wasn't the major sell point of stablecoins to enable direct crypto-to-crypto transactions without ever needing to first settle in fiat currency, e.g. USDT -> USDC, as opposed to USDT -> USD -> USDC?
        charcircuit 4y ago
itsagavin 4y ago
The end game here and rug pull will be a mass conversion on exchanges to any and every other asset from usdt. Most likely this will far exceed almost every exchanges actual reserves and they will internalize the buy side and add some numbers to a database. Exchanges will attempt to redeem all the USDT they now hold, the USDT they didn't also fabricate out of thin air that is. This bank run on Tether exposes Tethers own lack of liquid reserves causing both Tether and said exchanges to become insolvent taking everyone down with them. After an event like this the utility of crypto will remain but the money won't return for a long long time. This is how I see this all going. I think places like coinbase, kraken etc Will survive but almost no one will care when the shell game is over.
- uncletammy 4y ago
  Absolutely 100% this. The bank run on Tether exposes Tether's systematic lies and inherently unworkable business model.
benatkin 4y ago
> How would that look for crypto in general? It would look amazing.
bushbaba 4y ago
You assume tether will allow redemption of $1 USD for each 1 tether it receives. I believe tether makes no such guarantee you can actually redeem USD for your tethers.
whalesalad 4y ago
It’s all make believe. People playing house.
tamrix 4y ago
We know that for banks too but that never seems to be a problem.
uncletammy 4y ago
> We don't know if there is enough USD in Tether's coffer to redeem all the withdrawals I'd take it a step further and say that we know Tether's USD coffers aren't deep enough to cover withdrawals. They've fully and publicly accounted for the assets that back UST and it's almost entirely in cryptocurrency which will nose dive the second people start divesting. You seem to think that ignoring this glaring liability will somehow make it go away or will buy enough time for people to safely divest. It simply won't. The only cure for this cancer is sunlight and an ugly haircut for Tether holders. The only way to fix this is for unstable stablecoins to fail hard and have it serve as a warning for future investors not to play with fire.
seanhunter 4y ago
These are valid concerns but I don't think are reasons not to have a blanket ban. Delay in addressing the issue is simply going to result in a worse outcome for recovery because if it is a fraud[1], the ongoing costs of operation and any outflows to insiders are just going to eat away at the assets that should go back to victims. If by some strange turn of events it's not a fraud a ban would cause the backers of Tether to see sense, be transparent etc and get back on track. In the stock world, you can't have an ETF without credible audits, regulatory checks etc. Generally speaking that means if I have an ETF which someone says will track the SPX, it has an underlying asset basket comprising the stocks in the SPX and a redemption/creation mechanism where creating new units is contingent on assets being added to the basket to ensure redemption is later possible. Vice versa, redemption involves selling those assets to give back cash. You don't get to just say "don't look behind the curtain. Your gold is there but you don't get to look at it". [1] Which I have said for a very long time that it very likely _is_ simply on the basis of logic. If it's not a fraud there really is no reason whatsoever not to allow an audit and have full transparency about underlying assets. They don't do this and therefore are most likely a fraud. The reason they have always given (that giving transparency about their list of assets would allow others to duplicate their strategy) is the epitome of weaksauce and reason for concern in itself. For the people creating an ETF, the ETF is a source of funding because you have the ability to swap basket assets for units and do creative things when you see units available for purchase in the market. The edge doesn't come from having super seekrit strats about what goes in the asset basket. Any alpha from teh basket contents would cause undue volatility and the ETF not to track the reference index properly.
HeartStrings 4y ago
Why can’t it go from USDT to USDC directly?
sam_goody 4y ago
ATM, Binance needs a lot of cash, as they are still having >$50M a day in withdrawals. We know (from chats that were made public by FTX employees) that they are working with Tether to make sure that everything looks backed and solid and regain confidence. It is not impossible that Binance is already in the hole, and using some of Tether's cash, or that such a position is imminent. If we give Binanace time to stabilize before there is a run on Tether, then their combined coffers will be much larger, thus preventing the crash.

jasonlingx 4y ago

If Tether is insolvent then better to ban it earlier than later, before it becomes even “too bigger” to fail.

grugagag 4y ago
This exercise will likely make Tether fail
- _3u10 4y ago
  Exactly everything is insolvent. If tomorrow people were like hey everyone USD is going to fail you’d get the Great Depression unless the fed printed money. And there isn’t nearly enough paper money for it.
  - seanhunter 4y ago
    That's wildly and obviously untrue. Let's look at the definition of insolvency[1] "when an individual or company can no longer meet their financial obligations to lenders as debts become due." Take a trivial example - a person with no debts. You have to concede such people do exist in the world. They are by definition not insolvent, and cannot be. Even if the currency completely collapsed and USD had zero value this would not make them insolvent because they have o debt and therefore no financial obligations. [1] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/insolvency.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/insolvency.asp
- kevin_thibedeau 4y ago
  Then they didn't deserve to succeed.
- trog 4y ago
  > This exercise will likely make Tether fail Insolvent companies usually fail anyway. It's better to catch them early before they can make things even worse for their customers and investors.
  - KRAKRISMOTT 4y ago
    Not really, if they fail because of bank run reasons, it might be better for them to liquidate the assets slowly first, to stave off the run. Ymmv, check the accounting.
    - adam_arthur 4y ago
      There is no possibility of a "bank run" if tether is actually 1:1 backed with USD. But it's almost certainly not, and that's why it's effectively fraudulent
      - KRAKRISMOTT 4y ago
        They could be backed in USD denominated illiquid assets that may take time to unwound (it's kinda dumb from a treasury management POV if you keep everything in cash).
        adam_arthur 4y ago
        They can use overnight instruments, and its still pretty much impossible for there to be a bank run. But it begs the question, is Tether meant to be a viable stablecoin, or is it a fractional reserve piggy bank for the Tether owners to earn interest from? Clearly they're running it like the latter. Why would the crypto industry consolidate on something scammy like that?
        KRAKRISMOTT 4y ago
        That's a good point. If it's a pure stablecoin, would it be sustainable? It doesn't make sense to run a stablecoin as a charity/loss leader as there is a very real cost to treasury management and depreciation unless Bitfinex is trying to commoditize their complement.
- lmm 4y ago
  If it's a bubble then better to pop it sooner rather than later.
- seanhunter 4y ago
  If it's insolvent it already has failed - this exercise is just about admitting that failure and making the facts known.
- birracerveza 4y ago
  Finally!

justapassenger 4y ago

Your whole argument is let’s not dig, so we don’t expose a fraud?

pcthrowaway 4y ago
That was my understanding at first, but re-reading, I think it's just pointing out that digging is likely to expose a fraud with massive consequences (which I agree with). Of course, we should still do it

ABeeSea 4y ago

I’m ok with this.

partiallypro 4y ago

> We don't know if there is enough USD in Tether's coffer to redeem all the withdrawals. Isn't that a good reason to get away from it? Since, it seems to just be a massively fraudulent vehicle that has been a direct cause of both booms and busts in Bitcoin? This is from 2017: https://www.wsj.com/articles/large-bitcoin-player-manipulated-price-sharply-higher-study-says-11572863400 https://www.wsj.com/articles/large-bitcoin-player-manipulate...

sandworm101 4y ago
>> seems to just be a massively fraudulent vehicle that has been a direct cause of both booms and busts ... Ya. It's crypto. Any and every aspect of crypto is at least partially deserving of such description.
- MuffinFlavored 4y ago
  What about the stocks that make up the S&P500/the ETFs/mutual funds that track it? I know it isn't on the scale of "crypto scam" but a lot of people think along the lines of: can you trust the U.S. government to do the right thing/be efficient/effective? not really therefore, lots of debt that'll never get paid back corporations barely turning a profit. https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=idx_sp500&o=-pe https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=idx_sp500&o=-pe ton of stocks with high P/E or no earnings in the S&P wall street/robinhood "manipulating" markets, basically designing it almost like a casino to extract money from those who get addicted to "trading" stock market is where wall street + U.S. corporations (greedy CEOs/boards) + government/politics (regulation, interest rates, etc.) all meet and it's less fraudulent than crypto? i'm not saying this is what i think. i read a lot of this (pretty much MAGA crazed conspiracy theorist weirdos) on stocktwits. a non zero amount of people think this.
  - bhelkey 4y ago
    > corporations barely turning a profit...ton of stocks with high P/E or no earnings in the S&P In the first 20 companies you compare to scams is Amazon, a company with $500 Billion dollars in sales last year [1]. [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/revenue https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/revenu...

sumeno 4y ago

> We don't know if there is enough USD in Tether's coffer to redeem all the withdrawals We can be pretty confident that they don't. If they did they would have a third party accounting firm provide an attestation that they did

nl 4y ago
You mean like these ones? https://tether.to/en/transparency/#reports https://tether.to/en/transparency/#reports The most recent was Sep 2022 by BDO. They have a mix of assets (as you'd expect, because they have different liquidity requirements). But the majority is in short term (<45 day) US Treasury Bonds or Cash and Bank deposits. The other largest asset class is money-market funds, which is a pretty well understood asset class.
- sumeno 4y ago
  Weird how they said they were going to release monthly attestations through them and then did exactly one 4 months ago, and then in December BDO said they were going to stop dealing with crypto companies. Oh well, probably nothing!
  - nl 4y ago
    > they were going to release monthly attestations Did they say this? I thought it was quarterly (same as what Circle does with USDC) > in December BDO said they were going to stop dealing with crypto companies. Yeah who would blame them?
- TylerE 4y ago
  What auditor are they on now? When even one’s in the Caymans don’t touch you that says something.
  - nl 4y ago
    Note that an attestation isn't an audit. It's not nothing though - certainly more than FTX had.

dcolkitt 4y ago

Most Tether users either aren't in North America and/or are directly holding on-chain. Add up all the US and Canadian centralized exchanges, and accounts for much less than 10% of Tether's outstanding float. Now I certainly don't know if Tether has enough reserves to redeem 100% of their supply, but I'm almost certain they can redeem 10%.

acchow 4y ago
How are you certain of this? Most countries' largest banks can't sustain a 10% redemption of deposits. That would be a bank run.
- evdubs 4y ago
  Banks have short term liabilities (customer deposits and certificates of deposit) and long term assets (business loans, mortgage loans, etc.). A bank cannot call its business and mortgage loans from the borrower, so the maturity mismatch can create credit crunches for banks. Tether has short term liabilities (tokens) and short term assets (T-bills, money market funds, bank deposits, etc.). Because most of their assets are in short term "cash equivalent" assets with lots of liquidity, Tether can more easily deal with large redemptions as they did in April - July when their market cap went from $83B to $66B.
  - acchow 4y ago
    > Tether has short term liabilities (tokens) and short term assets (T-bills, money market funds, bank deposits, etc.) they claim.... We don't actually know what assets they really decided to hold.
    - evdubs 4y ago
      They claim and BDO Italia attests that these are the assets they hold. USDC likewise posts attestation reports, so we "know" Tether's assets as well as we do USDC's.

boring_twenties 4y ago

Can't it just go Tether -> BTC -> USDC?

jakelazaroff 4y ago
That exposes you to the price of BTC. USDT and USDC should both be pegged to USD, so (in theory) the market won’t move against you while you’re trading.
- metaphor 4y ago
  How is that exposure material for a typical holder given the supposed "velocity of crypto"? Or did mean that the implied trade is direct USDT -> USDC? P.S. Genuine question; I don't dabble in crypto.
  - TedDoesntTalk 4y ago
    A BTC transaction can easily take 30 minutes to confirm. In that time, the price of BTC fluctuates and if there’s an exodus from tether to BTC, it could fluctuate a lot.
    - metaphor 4y ago
      So from what you're saying, I gather that in a hypothetical USDT -> BTC -> USDC repositioning, even if you were to execute the first USDT -> BTC leg, you wouldn't be able to execute the next BTC -> USDC leg until after this first transaction to BTC has been "confirmed", and each leg of the trade "can easily take 30 minutes to confirm" all the while exposing the position to BTC downside volatility risk? I find it very strange that crypto exchanges don't handle execution, confirmation and settlement in the same way as traditional markets. Also, wasn't the major sell point of stablecoins to enable direct crypto-to-crypto transactions without ever needing to first settle in fiat currency, e.g. USDT -> USDC, as opposed to USDT -> USD -> USDC?
      - charcircuit 4y ago

itsagavin 4y ago

The end game here and rug pull will be a mass conversion on exchanges to any and every other asset from usdt. Most likely this will far exceed almost every exchanges actual reserves and they will internalize the buy side and add some numbers to a database. Exchanges will attempt to redeem all the USDT they now hold, the USDT they didn't also fabricate out of thin air that is. This bank run on Tether exposes Tethers own lack of liquid reserves causing both Tether and said exchanges to become insolvent taking everyone down with them. After an event like this the utility of crypto will remain but the money won't return for a long long time. This is how I see this all going. I think places like coinbase, kraken etc Will survive but almost no one will care when the shell game is over.

uncletammy 4y ago
Absolutely 100% this. The bank run on Tether exposes Tether's systematic lies and inherently unworkable business model.

benatkin 4y ago

> How would that look for crypto in general? It would look amazing.

bushbaba 4y ago

You assume tether will allow redemption of $1 USD for each 1 tether it receives. I believe tether makes no such guarantee you can actually redeem USD for your tethers.

whalesalad 4y ago

It’s all make believe. People playing house.

tamrix 4y ago

We know that for banks too but that never seems to be a problem.

uncletammy 4y ago

> We don't know if there is enough USD in Tether's coffer to redeem all the withdrawals I'd take it a step further and say that we know Tether's USD coffers aren't deep enough to cover withdrawals. They've fully and publicly accounted for the assets that back UST and it's almost entirely in cryptocurrency which will nose dive the second people start divesting. You seem to think that ignoring this glaring liability will somehow make it go away or will buy enough time for people to safely divest. It simply won't. The only cure for this cancer is sunlight and an ugly haircut for Tether holders. The only way to fix this is for unstable stablecoins to fail hard and have it serve as a warning for future investors not to play with fire.

seanhunter 4y ago

These are valid concerns but I don't think are reasons not to have a blanket ban. Delay in addressing the issue is simply going to result in a worse outcome for recovery because if it is a fraud[1], the ongoing costs of operation and any outflows to insiders are just going to eat away at the assets that should go back to victims. If by some strange turn of events it's not a fraud a ban would cause the backers of Tether to see sense, be transparent etc and get back on track. In the stock world, you can't have an ETF without credible audits, regulatory checks etc. Generally speaking that means if I have an ETF which someone says will track the SPX, it has an underlying asset basket comprising the stocks in the SPX and a redemption/creation mechanism where creating new units is contingent on assets being added to the basket to ensure redemption is later possible. Vice versa, redemption involves selling those assets to give back cash. You don't get to just say "don't look behind the curtain. Your gold is there but you don't get to look at it". [1] Which I have said for a very long time that it very likely _is_ simply on the basis of logic. If it's not a fraud there really is no reason whatsoever not to allow an audit and have full transparency about underlying assets. They don't do this and therefore are most likely a fraud. The reason they have always given (that giving transparency about their list of assets would allow others to duplicate their strategy) is the epitome of weaksauce and reason for concern in itself. For the people creating an ETF, the ETF is a source of funding because you have the ability to swap basket assets for units and do creative things when you see units available for purchase in the market. The edge doesn't come from having super seekrit strats about what goes in the asset basket. Any alpha from teh basket contents would cause undue volatility and the ETF not to track the reference index properly.

HeartStrings 4y ago

Why can’t it go from USDT to USDC directly?

sam_goody 4y ago

ATM, Binance needs a lot of cash, as they are still having >$50M a day in withdrawals. We know (from chats that were made public by FTX employees) that they are working with Tether to make sure that everything looks backed and solid and regain confidence. It is not impossible that Binance is already in the hole, and using some of Tether's cash, or that such a position is imminent. If we give Binanace time to stabilize before there is a run on Tether, then their combined coffers will be much larger, thus preventing the crash.