3 ms·

That's the problem, the market keeps thinking the Fed is bluffing. Inflation is not rapidly coming down, it is stubbornly beginning to ease.

• reducesuffering 4y ago
  The inflation over the past 5 months is 1%, so 2.4% annualized.
• burnte 4y ago
  No one thinks their bluffing, the market WANTS this, it depresses wages bringing costs down. Corporate profits are responsible for at least half of inflation, and wage growth is a good chunk of the other half. Profits are good reasons to raise prices, but wages isn't, and the market wants to put workers back in their place. They WANT a short recession.
• dcolkitt 4y ago
  Core CPI ex-shelter was negative the previous two months. The way BLS measures shelter is notoriously laggy. High-frequency metrics of shelter inflation (e.g. Zillow data)[1] is falling off a cliff. The upshot is that while CPI is probably over-measuring inflation today, and we're basically back to baseline, earlier in the year we were probably running closer to 11-12% inflation with the real housing numbers. [1]https://www.zillow.com/research/rent-inflation-31602/ https://www.zillow.com/research/rent-inflation-31602/
• roflyear 4y ago
  Inflation is going down.