4 ms·

These companies are widely profitable. Overvalued != insolvent.

by rafale 4y ago

AviationAtom 4y ago
Where do most of them get their money from? Advertisers. Who makes advertisers spend? Consumers. What happens when consumers are unemployed? ...
- acchow 4y ago
  2008 hit the economy hard, but Google still managed to grow revenue by 31% (year ended Dec 31 2008) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1288776/000119312509029448/d10k.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1288776/000119312509... 2009 was tougher, where revenue growth slowed to 8.5% https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1288776/000119312510030774/d10k.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1288776/000119312510... This all while unemployment rocketed upwards
  - borbulon 4y ago
    You're skipping the part where Google grew because they were opening new channels for growth - YouTube was only a few years old and growing, in 2008 Android had just been released and DoubleClick had just been bought. Now their growth depends on extracting more from their advertisers, it's an apples-to-oranges comparison.
    - happyopossum 4y ago
      > because they were opening new channels for growth As they are today with GCP, security, user assurance, and everything under Alphabet not labeled Google. Yes, ad makes up a huge %age of revenue for Aplhabet, but it’s not the only dish at the buffet.
    - AviationAtom 4y ago
      We haven't really seen a Dotcom 2.0 and I think we're due for it. COVID-era pumped a sizable amount of money into Big Tech.
  - cheriot 4y ago
    Last quarter Google and Meta ad revenue growth was roughly 2% and -4% respectively. If overall ad spend declines both of them will loose money. 2008/9 are not a good comparison because they were smaller companies and so much ad spend was moving from offline to online.
    - Dylan16807 4y ago
      If google lost 40% of their revenue it would only kick them back to the same numbers they had in 2019 and 2020. Maybe Meta would have to stop spending a fortune on VR if revenue declines, but it would take a lot to hurt them.
      - cheriot 4y ago
        They've increased headcount significantly since 2019 so I imagine layoffs would be in the picture. Agree they'd still be large businesses with growth prospects.
        Dylan16807 4y ago
        To be clear, I mean that Alphabet revenue was about the same in both 2019 and 2020, so it's only growth since Q3 2020 that matters. Any idea what the new headcount is doing? I can think of very little change in their services over the last handful of years, but apparently they have doubled in size in the last five! At best I could point at waymo, but they've gained 2k compared to 70k. And they already gutted stadia but that was never very big.
        cheriot 4y ago
        My impression is that a lot of it goes to GCP. Maybe YouTube getting a push in whatever initiative prompts them to overpay for NFL Sunday Ticket. I'd love to see a leaked doc from some mega cap tech outlining headcount per segment. I don't get it either.
- kube-system 4y ago
  US unemployment is at a 50 year low. While 120,000 people may have been recently laid off at high profile tech companies, that's only 0.07% of the jobs market. (and many of them are highly employable and have new jobs)
  - AviationAtom 4y ago
    Indeed, but how is that number calculated? The output of an algorithm is only as good as the data you choose to incorporate into it. I think the picture is painted rosier than it is, but also I think we have ample room to fall still.
    - kube-system 4y ago
      It's calculated like this: https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm If you think it's wrong, there are other measures of household economic activity that can be used in conjunction. For instance, if people lose their jobs, they're going to spend less money, which hasn't happened yet (at least through Nov '22): https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/personal-income-and-outlays-november-2022 https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/personal-income-and-outlays-no...
    - patrick451 4y ago
      Right, if we all became homeless and stopped looking for work, the unemployment rate would be 0%.
- SoftTalker 4y ago
  The unemployed still buy things. Maybe different advertisers will be interested in their eyeballs, but there will still be an ad market for them.

These companies are widely profitable. Overvalued != insolvent.

by rafale 4y ago

These companies are widely profitable. Overvalued != insolvent.

Where do most of them get their money from? Advertisers. Who makes advertisers spend? Consumers. What happens when consumers are unemployed? ...

acchow 4y ago
2008 hit the economy hard, but Google still managed to grow revenue by 31% (year ended Dec 31 2008) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1288776/000119312509029448/d10k.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1288776/000119312509... 2009 was tougher, where revenue growth slowed to 8.5% https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1288776/000119312510030774/d10k.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1288776/000119312510... This all while unemployment rocketed upwards
- borbulon 4y ago
  You're skipping the part where Google grew because they were opening new channels for growth - YouTube was only a few years old and growing, in 2008 Android had just been released and DoubleClick had just been bought. Now their growth depends on extracting more from their advertisers, it's an apples-to-oranges comparison.
  - happyopossum 4y ago
    > because they were opening new channels for growth As they are today with GCP, security, user assurance, and everything under Alphabet not labeled Google. Yes, ad makes up a huge %age of revenue for Aplhabet, but it’s not the only dish at the buffet.
  - AviationAtom 4y ago
    We haven't really seen a Dotcom 2.0 and I think we're due for it. COVID-era pumped a sizable amount of money into Big Tech.
- cheriot 4y ago
  Last quarter Google and Meta ad revenue growth was roughly 2% and -4% respectively. If overall ad spend declines both of them will loose money. 2008/9 are not a good comparison because they were smaller companies and so much ad spend was moving from offline to online.
  - Dylan16807 4y ago
    If google lost 40% of their revenue it would only kick them back to the same numbers they had in 2019 and 2020. Maybe Meta would have to stop spending a fortune on VR if revenue declines, but it would take a lot to hurt them.
    - cheriot 4y ago
      They've increased headcount significantly since 2019 so I imagine layoffs would be in the picture. Agree they'd still be large businesses with growth prospects.
      - Dylan16807 4y ago
        To be clear, I mean that Alphabet revenue was about the same in both 2019 and 2020, so it's only growth since Q3 2020 that matters. Any idea what the new headcount is doing? I can think of very little change in their services over the last handful of years, but apparently they have doubled in size in the last five! At best I could point at waymo, but they've gained 2k compared to 70k. And they already gutted stadia but that was never very big.
        cheriot 4y ago
        My impression is that a lot of it goes to GCP. Maybe YouTube getting a push in whatever initiative prompts them to overpay for NFL Sunday Ticket. I'd love to see a leaked doc from some mega cap tech outlining headcount per segment. I don't get it either.
kube-system 4y ago
US unemployment is at a 50 year low. While 120,000 people may have been recently laid off at high profile tech companies, that's only 0.07% of the jobs market. (and many of them are highly employable and have new jobs)
- AviationAtom 4y ago
  Indeed, but how is that number calculated? The output of an algorithm is only as good as the data you choose to incorporate into it. I think the picture is painted rosier than it is, but also I think we have ample room to fall still.
  - kube-system 4y ago
    It's calculated like this: https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm If you think it's wrong, there are other measures of household economic activity that can be used in conjunction. For instance, if people lose their jobs, they're going to spend less money, which hasn't happened yet (at least through Nov '22): https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/personal-income-and-outlays-november-2022 https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/personal-income-and-outlays-no...
  - patrick451 4y ago
    Right, if we all became homeless and stopped looking for work, the unemployment rate would be 0%.
SoftTalker 4y ago
The unemployed still buy things. Maybe different advertisers will be interested in their eyeballs, but there will still be an ad market for them.