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> “A massive geomagnetic storm would sever all of these links on a global scale… Estimates of global damage differ by an order of magnitude, from $2 trillion t

> “A massive geomagnetic storm would sever all of these links on a global scale… Estimates of global damage differ by an order of magnitude, from $2 trillion to $20 trillion, Except that it can't happen. It will never happen. It happened in '89 and only affected a few million people. They all had power back within nine hours. People watch too many movies. EMPs and CMEs are frankly overrated.

jeff-davis 4y ago
Can you explain?
giardia 4y ago
Another Carrington event would likely be catastrophic. Telegraph operators were talking to each other with the power sources disconnected. Everyone over the world experienced it. Can you imagine what would happen to our very delicate and unshielded electronics today? The question is how common a Carrington event really is. You could start to find out by looking for historical accounts of aurora in equatorial regions that coincide with aurora in other parts of the world.
- jjoonathan 4y ago
  > Another Carrington event would likely be catastrophic. I've seen plenty of breathless doomsday porn on the subject, but I will go a considerable distance out on a branch to charitably assume that you did not mistake any of this for actual analysis and instead formed your opinion on the basis of something a bit more credible (or at least thoughtfully conducted). I'd be interested in reading that. Could you link me? Thanks.
  - Phlarp 4y ago
    Depends how you feel about electromagnetism? Do electromagnetic waves moving through space induce voltage on a conductor? If yes, a sufficiently powerful solar storm could easily destroy electrical transmission lines, fry every inductive motor on the planet and (if strong enough) permanently disable every consumer grade radio in existence. The western world would have a very bad time.
    - lstodd 4y ago
      It'll fry electrical distribution. Motors and electronics apart from ones in orbit will not be affected. This will be enough.
  - giardia 4y ago
    If you read the wiki of the Carrington event, telegraph operators were getting electrocuted and the pylons were throwing sparks because of the EM induction. I could be wrong, but this doesn't sound like an event the grid or consumer electronics are designed to handle. Some people today estimate that you really only need to take down around a dozen key power stations to essentially take down the whole grid in the lower 48. If the Carrington event was indeed worldwide, we wouldn't be able to get back to where we were for a while. We're talking little or no electricity, little or no radio, etc. Again, the question really comes down to "What are the odds?" The CE seems to be very, very unlikely. If there were a handful of historical accounts of aurora in equatorial regions worldwide I think we'd be much more proactive about it.
- marcosdumay 4y ago
  > Can you imagine what would happen to our very delicate and unshielded electronics today? Nothing is that unshielded. Things were designed to survive lightning back then, and they are designed to survive lightning now. The question is really how our power distribution grids will fare. And the experience with telegraph back then is very relevant.
  - Phlarp 4y ago
    How do you shield a radio receiver from electromagnetic disturbances on the antenna?
    - lstodd 4y ago
      What frequences we're talking about?
      - Phlarp 4y ago
        For the purposes of this discussion, lets say “the same frequencies the radio operates on”
      - marcosdumay 4y ago
        Mili-Hertz to micro-Hertz. That's where almost all the energy is. AFAIK, it doesn't start to become a problem because current antenna have an incredibly low sensitivity on that range. But well, I can easily overlook some detail.
Tepix 4y ago
1989 was not as strong as the Carrington event. Solar storms have happened in the past and will happen again: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_storms https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_storms I have little doubt that a strong event could cause severe disruptions and i see no reason why it won't happen eventually.
guilhas 4y ago
Could be code for wide nuclear war EMPs?
kersplody 4y ago
I'm more interested in the survival rate of non-hardened low earth satellites -- most of which are not engineered to survive severe geomagnetic storms. Heck, a good solar storm could knock GPS out for a day or two -- what's the economic impact of that?

jeff-davis 4y ago

Can you explain?

giardia 4y ago

Another Carrington event would likely be catastrophic. Telegraph operators were talking to each other with the power sources disconnected. Everyone over the world experienced it. Can you imagine what would happen to our very delicate and unshielded electronics today? The question is how common a Carrington event really is. You could start to find out by looking for historical accounts of aurora in equatorial regions that coincide with aurora in other parts of the world.

jjoonathan 4y ago
> Another Carrington event would likely be catastrophic. I've seen plenty of breathless doomsday porn on the subject, but I will go a considerable distance out on a branch to charitably assume that you did not mistake any of this for actual analysis and instead formed your opinion on the basis of something a bit more credible (or at least thoughtfully conducted). I'd be interested in reading that. Could you link me? Thanks.
- Phlarp 4y ago
  Depends how you feel about electromagnetism? Do electromagnetic waves moving through space induce voltage on a conductor? If yes, a sufficiently powerful solar storm could easily destroy electrical transmission lines, fry every inductive motor on the planet and (if strong enough) permanently disable every consumer grade radio in existence. The western world would have a very bad time.
  - lstodd 4y ago
    It'll fry electrical distribution. Motors and electronics apart from ones in orbit will not be affected. This will be enough.
- giardia 4y ago
  If you read the wiki of the Carrington event, telegraph operators were getting electrocuted and the pylons were throwing sparks because of the EM induction. I could be wrong, but this doesn't sound like an event the grid or consumer electronics are designed to handle. Some people today estimate that you really only need to take down around a dozen key power stations to essentially take down the whole grid in the lower 48. If the Carrington event was indeed worldwide, we wouldn't be able to get back to where we were for a while. We're talking little or no electricity, little or no radio, etc. Again, the question really comes down to "What are the odds?" The CE seems to be very, very unlikely. If there were a handful of historical accounts of aurora in equatorial regions worldwide I think we'd be much more proactive about it.
marcosdumay 4y ago
> Can you imagine what would happen to our very delicate and unshielded electronics today? Nothing is that unshielded. Things were designed to survive lightning back then, and they are designed to survive lightning now. The question is really how our power distribution grids will fare. And the experience with telegraph back then is very relevant.
- Phlarp 4y ago
  How do you shield a radio receiver from electromagnetic disturbances on the antenna?
  - lstodd 4y ago
    What frequences we're talking about?
    - Phlarp 4y ago
      For the purposes of this discussion, lets say “the same frequencies the radio operates on”
    - marcosdumay 4y ago
      Mili-Hertz to micro-Hertz. That's where almost all the energy is. AFAIK, it doesn't start to become a problem because current antenna have an incredibly low sensitivity on that range. But well, I can easily overlook some detail.

Tepix 4y ago

1989 was not as strong as the Carrington event. Solar storms have happened in the past and will happen again: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_storms https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_storms I have little doubt that a strong event could cause severe disruptions and i see no reason why it won't happen eventually.

guilhas 4y ago

Could be code for wide nuclear war EMPs?

kersplody 4y ago

I'm more interested in the survival rate of non-hardened low earth satellites -- most of which are not engineered to survive severe geomagnetic storms. Heck, a good solar storm could knock GPS out for a day or two -- what's the economic impact of that?