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I feel this is a smallish and optimistic viewpoint. We hit a technological inflection point near the end of 2022 after 2 decades of relatively horizontal techn
by fckgnad 4y ago
I feel this is a smallish and optimistic viewpoint.
We hit a technological inflection point near the end of 2022 after 2 decades of relatively horizontal technical progress with slight improvements. That change is AI. Suddenly the idea that AI becoming better at human tasks then humans themselves becomes a realistic prospect. This is what will change not just the next year but humanity for the next century. For the next year we will see rapid progress in AI, exploratory applications and the first heave instances of human resistance against AI.
The only other thing as big as AI is the climate. However the outcome of the climate is already well known. In all probability, the worst case scenario will likely play out but we won't suffer from the brunt of it in the next year. It's an old story and no longer interesting because we already know the bitter ending and we don't have the self control to change it.
As for crypto, stocks, recessions and the economy and stuff like that, I personally think these things aren't too important. These are mediums of economic exchange going through cycles. They are side effects of actual progress, of technology that will fundamentally change things. They are also relatively unpredictable. Mild recession for the next year or stagnation like japan for the next decade. Who knows? It's hard to say. Such predictions in either direction are equally meaningless due to the chaotic nature of it all.
Either way the biggest thing that happened in 2022 is the new progress in AI and I'm surprised the article doesn't mention it. AI is a game changer for the "macro environment" for tech.
- ryanwaggoner 4y agoEh. I predict that little will change in the broader tech economy because of AI in 2023. Over the next 3-5 years, yes, but not the next 12 months.
- rmason 4y agoWe are at the inflection point with AI. The next version of ChatGPT to be introduced in May 2023 will be 10X as the current version. Then the May 2024 version will be another 10X or 100X the current version. We may need another law such as Moore's law for chips for this to register with people. I humbly suggest that it be called Altman's law.
- pjscott 4y agoI saw a copy of "Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach" on the shelf yesterday and couldn't help wondering if there would ever be another edition. It has some great, foundational stuff in it -- but the techniques described are about as far from the current state of the art as a Byzantine dromon is from an aircraft carrier. Russell and Norvig would pretty much have to rewrite the book from scratch, and by the time the draft was ready for editing their approach would probably no longer be modern. I'm calling it now: if AI isn't the biggest news of the next ten years, then the reason will probably be because it got upstaged by World War 3 or something similarly dramatic. And it baffles me how little press the subject gets.
- thinkingkong 4y agoWhat are you basing this guess on? What does “10x better ai” even mean?
- fckgnad 4y agoIt's an arbitrary number with no exact meaning. Clearly, that number is not based off of any real metric. He is just ironically using quantities to qualitatively express the speed of progress.
- imtringued 4y agoIf AI progress was linearly measurable we would have achieved AGI by now.
- omnicognate 4y agoOn what basis do you say this? Is it anything more than your gut feeling? How much more training data do you think will be needed to bring about this 10x or 100x improvement? Do you have any expectations as to how it will be obtained? Also, what's being multiplied by 10 or 100 in this scenario?
- fckgnad 4y agoIt's in theory possible for the technologically to grow this quickly. However, there will be a delay in human adoption because of how large of a paradigm shift it is. Artists are already using copyright law to attack AI. Once other parts of our economy are hit you could see more vicious attacks and alternative strategies used against AI. It's possible for even laws used to limit AI in the same way tariffs work or we might even see resistance similar to the Butlarian jihad. Who knows? That's all hypothetical though... Even if none of these resistance scenarios arise, I still think adoption will not happen as fast as technological development.
- fckgnad 4y agoI actually agree with this and i never said anything against it. The next year is still extremely important. Here's a better way for me to put it: chatGPT and stable diffusion didn't change anything about the economy in 2022 and they won't change anything in 2023. However, these two technologies are still inflections points and that is why they are important despite Zero change. In 2023 we will see much more of these inflection points related to AI. None of these will change the economy in 2023, but they are the first stepping stones of what will change everything in the years to come.
- wslh 4y agoThe article mention AI: “because I believe the massive advances in AI/ML that we are seeing right now may be a threat to their core search franchise.”
- fckgnad 4y agoSeems like an edit. I didn't see it when I first wrote my reply. Or maybe I just missed it. My post is still relevant as the article only briefly says something about AI and it's applicability to search. I think a lot of people have only read about chatGPT and dismissed it as another AI viral buzz word. If you played with chatGPT in-depth you will know that this thing is not just applicable to search. It's a game-changer. In fact this whole article is generic enough that it could even be itself generated by AI.