5 ms·

The vaccines, while "better than nothing" and much cheaper than giving everyone a 6-month supply of N95 masks, were mostly a flop. We have a long way to go befo

by mcbits 4y ago

The vaccines, while "better than nothing" and much cheaper than giving everyone a 6-month supply of N95 masks, were mostly a flop. We have a long way to go before we can just print up vaccines to head off emerging epidemics, but hopefully the lessons learned through this failure will lead to faster progress.

vlovich123 4y ago
That’s a novel take I hadn’t heard before. What data are you looking at to come to that conclusion?
- mcbits 4y ago
  N95 masks were going for upwards of $50 during the shortage, but even at a nominal $1 apiece (and not including emergency capital investment to increase production), it would have cost $182.50 to $365 per person for 1-2 masks a day for 6 months. Moderna was given $1 billion for the vaccine development, or about $3 per person, and then $1.5 billion for 100 million doses, or $15 per dose, totaling about $48 for 3 doses at that rate. You can dig into the other rounds of funding if you're still skeptical, but clearly the vaccines were much cheaper than 6 months of the type of masks that, unlike the vaccines, are actually effective at preventing transmission of the virus.
  - nextaccountic 4y ago
    Vaccines were wildly successful at preventing deaths even though the virus continue to circulate. Omicron isn't milder - Covid variants in general are milder on vaccinated people, and today there's a lot of vaccinated people. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/13/health/covid-19-vaccines-study/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/13/health/covid-19-vaccines-...
    - mcbits 4y ago
      Even with almost everyone vaccinated and/or repeatedly exposed to the virus to refresh their immunity, the virus killed over 70,000 in the US in that last 6 months and over 250,000 in the last year. In the first months of the pandemic, healthcare workers spent 14-hour shifts surrounded by deathly ill patients and still only rarely caught it themselves thanks to their PPE, in particular the masks that were invented for this very purpose. It's obvious what could actually eradicate this virus that has multiplied the flu (which was already an annual crisis) ten-fold. Maybe next time a rapidly developed and deployed vaccine will do it, but not this time.
      - wizofaus 4y ago
        It is? Or did you leave out a "not"? "Everyone wearing PPE all the time" is hardly an "obvious" solution...
        mcbits 4y ago
        Not all the time and only for a few months. It would have worked in 2020 if people had access to real PPE (not bandanas and chin straps). And if we didn't have large employers like Publix and the NY Dept of Corrections prohibiting their employees from wearing the PPE that they already had. Many lessons are available to be learned by those willing.
        jjeaff 4y ago
        That is an oversimplified solution. Access to masks was only a small part of the problem. Many people were simply unwilling to wear them. Access to N95 or kn95 masks became quite available within a few months of the shortages and people continued to wear bandanas and home made cloth.
        jjeaff 4y ago
        This seems to be china's approach, plenty of masking and social distancing and lock downs still. And yet it has failed to stop the virus. It is notable that china's traditional vaccine has been less effective than the mRNA and they are sitting at 9,000 deaths a day compared to a few hundred for the us right now.
jjeaff 4y ago
This is just conjecture. The vaccines were a huge success at preventing severe illness and saved millions of lives. Many people working in hospital environments wore N95 masks, gowns, and face shields. You might as well just say that vaccines were a failure because we could have just asked the world public to go on a diet and lose weight. It would be about as likely as getting the whole world to walk around in hazmat suits.
- mcbits 4y ago
  Gowns and face shields (and gloves) are extra layers of defense, but the masks provide almost all of the benefit. People aren't getting infected in substantial numbers through their eyes or ears or skin, although we couldn't be sure of that at first.

by mcbits 4y ago

vlovich123 4y ago

That’s a novel take I hadn’t heard before. What data are you looking at to come to that conclusion?

mcbits 4y ago
N95 masks were going for upwards of $50 during the shortage, but even at a nominal $1 apiece (and not including emergency capital investment to increase production), it would have cost $182.50 to $365 per person for 1-2 masks a day for 6 months. Moderna was given $1 billion for the vaccine development, or about $3 per person, and then $1.5 billion for 100 million doses, or $15 per dose, totaling about $48 for 3 doses at that rate. You can dig into the other rounds of funding if you're still skeptical, but clearly the vaccines were much cheaper than 6 months of the type of masks that, unlike the vaccines, are actually effective at preventing transmission of the virus.
- nextaccountic 4y ago
  Vaccines were wildly successful at preventing deaths even though the virus continue to circulate. Omicron isn't milder - Covid variants in general are milder on vaccinated people, and today there's a lot of vaccinated people. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/13/health/covid-19-vaccines-study/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/13/health/covid-19-vaccines-...
  - mcbits 4y ago
    Even with almost everyone vaccinated and/or repeatedly exposed to the virus to refresh their immunity, the virus killed over 70,000 in the US in that last 6 months and over 250,000 in the last year. In the first months of the pandemic, healthcare workers spent 14-hour shifts surrounded by deathly ill patients and still only rarely caught it themselves thanks to their PPE, in particular the masks that were invented for this very purpose. It's obvious what could actually eradicate this virus that has multiplied the flu (which was already an annual crisis) ten-fold. Maybe next time a rapidly developed and deployed vaccine will do it, but not this time.
    - wizofaus 4y ago
      It is? Or did you leave out a "not"? "Everyone wearing PPE all the time" is hardly an "obvious" solution...
      - mcbits 4y ago
        Not all the time and only for a few months. It would have worked in 2020 if people had access to real PPE (not bandanas and chin straps). And if we didn't have large employers like Publix and the NY Dept of Corrections prohibiting their employees from wearing the PPE that they already had. Many lessons are available to be learned by those willing.
        jjeaff 4y ago
        That is an oversimplified solution. Access to masks was only a small part of the problem. Many people were simply unwilling to wear them. Access to N95 or kn95 masks became quite available within a few months of the shortages and people continued to wear bandanas and home made cloth.
        jjeaff 4y ago
        This seems to be china's approach, plenty of masking and social distancing and lock downs still. And yet it has failed to stop the virus. It is notable that china's traditional vaccine has been less effective than the mRNA and they are sitting at 9,000 deaths a day compared to a few hundred for the us right now.

jjeaff 4y ago

This is just conjecture. The vaccines were a huge success at preventing severe illness and saved millions of lives. Many people working in hospital environments wore N95 masks, gowns, and face shields. You might as well just say that vaccines were a failure because we could have just asked the world public to go on a diet and lose weight. It would be about as likely as getting the whole world to walk around in hazmat suits.

mcbits 4y ago
Gowns and face shields (and gloves) are extra layers of defense, but the masks provide almost all of the benefit. People aren't getting infected in substantial numbers through their eyes or ears or skin, although we couldn't be sure of that at first.