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The high energy prices are not because of the war but because of the sanctions regime. The thing is, sanctions basically never end. It's impossible to lift them
by rsj_hn 4y ago
The high energy prices are not because of the war but because of the sanctions regime. The thing is, sanctions basically never end. It's impossible to lift them. We still have sanctions against Cuba since 1962. No one even cares about Cuba anymore. The sanctions against Iran remain in place since 1979, and have only ever gotten stricter. Same for Syria, which we began to sanction in 1986. It's called "the sanctions escalator", because it only ever moves up. New sanctions are now being introduced against China.
There is no reason to think that, after the war is over, the sanctions will be lifted. I mean, why would they be lifted? Europe is not going to return to Russia the assets that were frozen/seized or start wanting to trade with Russia -- or vice versa -- moreover there are already new pipelines and trade agreements made within Eurasia that exclude Europe as a market for energy.
This is a permanent change ushering in a new cold war and a new multipolar world, where it's going to be hard (but not impossible) for commodities to cross bloc boundaries. Russia's commodities are going to be flowing east and south, Saudi Arabia's will be flowing mostly to China, while North American commodities will be staying mostly in North America.
After permanently and irreparably rupturing the previous trade relationships, Europe is going to have to become more energy independent, and I think they realize now that the previous energy dependence they had was a strategic weakness for them. They will need to learn to do with less energy at least until they ramp up domestically produced replacements such as nuclear or renewables + storage.
- bjelkeman-again 4y agoSanctions do get lifted. Sanctions against South Africa are an example: https://www.sahistory.org.za/dated-event/european-community-lifts-sanctions-against-sa https://www.sahistory.org.za/dated-event/european-community-... EU sanctions against others may also cease after a regime change. US lifted sanctions against Vietnam. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States–Vietnam_relations#21st_century https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States–Vietnam_relation...
- rsj_hn 4y agoI mean, if your hope is for regime change, then I'd recommend an energy policy that is based on something a bit more realistic. Imagine telling farmers or businesses in Germany or the UK that "Your bills will remain high until there is regime change in Russia". They would correctly view that as lack of an energy policy. Europe requires an energy policy for the world that exists, not the world it wishes would exist. We have not been able to change the regime in Syria, Iran or Cuba despite decades trying. Not sure why you think China or Russia is going to be a more realistic target. FYI, the successor to Putin is Medvedev, who is much more of an anti-western hardliner. If Europe is pinning its hopes for the future on regime change in Russia, then the people of Europe deserve much more competent leadership.
- bjelkeman-again 4y agoTell me a region in the world which couldn't do with more competent leadership. :)
- rsj_hn 4y agoI think Europe is unique in terms of denying reality so much that they don't even have a plan. It's like the prospect of some things are so terrible as to be unthinkable and when something is unthinkable, you don't come up with a plan to deal with it. Instead, you shout down anyone who brings up the unmentionable thing. For Europe, the list of unthinkable things keeps growing: * What if they can't deploy enough energy storage at scale to make their renewable push actually work? Unthinkable! * What if there is no regime change in Russia, and the present situation just continues for a few decades. Unthinkable! * What will they do with millions of Ukrainian refugees that refuse to or are unable to return home? And the many millions more that will be flooding in soon? Unthinkable! So this deer in the headlights inability to face reality is the leadership problem. And the sad thing is that Europe does have options. There is coal in Poland, Natural gas in Germany, Nuclear in France, Wind in Italy. They can scale up production of domestic sources and deal with the stark reality that they need to become much more energy independent OR they can spend $200 billion subsidizing the purchase of imported natural gas for consumers, just hoping that things "go back to normal after the war".
- branko_d 4y agoAlso: sanctions against Yugoslavia were imposed, (mostly) lifted, then imposed again and then finally lifted, all within a decade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanctions_against_Yugoslavia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanctions_against_Yugoslavia
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- biorach 4y ago> We still have sanctions against Cuba since 1962. No one even cares about Cuba anymore That's not true. The sanctions against Cuba remain in place because a small but significant number of Cuban exiles care very much and they happen to be mostly concentrated in a swing state
- TeMPOraL 4y agoPlease tell me this is a joke or a conspiracy theory. Do I read you correctly? Are you saying that the US has been forcefully suppressing an entire nation for decades, just because of a small amount of US citizens that live in a politically inconvenient location, and who are politically inconvenient to move somewhere else?
- ElevenLathe 4y agoTo make it less abstract, Cuban-Americans are heavily concentrated in Florida and so are an important constituency there. Easing sanctions on Cuba is not something they want, in the aggregate. Politicians that want Florida therefore don't want to do it. Party leadership (for both parties, but most importantly the Republicans) therefore doesn't push for it because it's such a losing issue. Essentially there is imagined to be no upside politically to easing on Cuba, while the downside is very clear (you lose Florida). I'm not sure how we could move Cuban-Americans somewhere else unless you are suggesting forced relocations to other parts of the U.S.
- dsfyu404ed 4y agoI don't disagree about your analysis of the politics but I still think the math just doesn't pencil out. On the other side of the issue from all those Cubans who don't want normalized relations is business interests that do. Levis wants to sell them jeans. Apple wants to sell them phones. GM wants to sell them truck. Raytheon wants to sell them radar systems. There's just so much money to be made when a formerly isolated market become unlocked that I think you could win back Florida and more with all the donations from the big corporations that would stand to benefit from normalized relations with Cuba. I think the only reason nothing happens is because there's no one sector that really stands to benefit and can make a concentrated lobbying effort whereas the people that don't want it are a unified ethnic group which for the purposes of high level political analysis can roughly be seen as a voting block. Ditto all this for Iran, but move all the decimals to the right once or twice.
- jnsaff2 4y agoThe prices went nuts several months before Feb 24 due to russian machinations with supply. So your claim about it only being linked to sanctions is only partially true. Also russian controlled gas storage in Germany decided to keep fill levels in storage artificially low. This had direct impact on price and also not part of the sanctions, tho still part of the wider war of russian aggression.