6 ms·

your conclusion may be correct but there could be circumstances that change the calculation. For example, if moving expensive leafy greens to vertical farms f

your conclusion may be correct but there could be circumstances that change the calculation. For example, if moving expensive leafy greens to vertical farms frees up soil, water and other resources for staples.

Ekaros 4y ago
My issues is that they still need energy input. And this takes land, specially for renewables. And that land is close or even more than just laying the same on flat ground.
Animats 4y ago
Tomatoes and strawberries have been grown vertically. There's an ultra-premium vegetable and fruit sector, but it's inherently tiny. High energy prices right now are mostly the result of the Ukraine war. It's painful now, but it is accelerating the conversion from fossil fuels. At least if this doesn't expand into a larger war.
- rsj_hn 4y ago
  The high energy prices are not because of the war but because of the sanctions regime. The thing is, sanctions basically never end. It's impossible to lift them. We still have sanctions against Cuba since 1962. No one even cares about Cuba anymore. The sanctions against Iran remain in place since 1979, and have only ever gotten stricter. Same for Syria, which we began to sanction in 1986. It's called "the sanctions escalator", because it only ever moves up. New sanctions are now being introduced against China. There is no reason to think that, after the war is over, the sanctions will be lifted. I mean, why would they be lifted? Europe is not going to return to Russia the assets that were frozen/seized or start wanting to trade with Russia -- or vice versa -- moreover there are already new pipelines and trade agreements made within Eurasia that exclude Europe as a market for energy. This is a permanent change ushering in a new cold war and a new multipolar world, where it's going to be hard (but not impossible) for commodities to cross bloc boundaries. Russia's commodities are going to be flowing east and south, Saudi Arabia's will be flowing mostly to China, while North American commodities will be staying mostly in North America. After permanently and irreparably rupturing the previous trade relationships, Europe is going to have to become more energy independent, and I think they realize now that the previous energy dependence they had was a strategic weakness for them. They will need to learn to do with less energy at least until they ramp up domestically produced replacements such as nuclear or renewables + storage.
  - bjelkeman-again 4y ago
    Sanctions do get lifted. Sanctions against South Africa are an example: https://www.sahistory.org.za/dated-event/european-community-lifts-sanctions-against-sa https://www.sahistory.org.za/dated-event/european-community-... EU sanctions against others may also cease after a regime change. US lifted sanctions against Vietnam. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States–Vietnam_relations#21st_century https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States–Vietnam_relation...
    - rsj_hn 4y ago
      I mean, if your hope is for regime change, then I'd recommend an energy policy that is based on something a bit more realistic. Imagine telling farmers or businesses in Germany or the UK that "Your bills will remain high until there is regime change in Russia". They would correctly view that as lack of an energy policy. Europe requires an energy policy for the world that exists, not the world it wishes would exist. We have not been able to change the regime in Syria, Iran or Cuba despite decades trying. Not sure why you think China or Russia is going to be a more realistic target. FYI, the successor to Putin is Medvedev, who is much more of an anti-western hardliner. If Europe is pinning its hopes for the future on regime change in Russia, then the people of Europe deserve much more competent leadership.
      - bjelkeman-again 4y ago
        Tell me a region in the world which couldn't do with more competent leadership. :)
        rsj_hn 4y ago
        I think Europe is unique in terms of denying reality so much that they don't even have a plan. It's like the prospect of some things are so terrible as to be unthinkable and when something is unthinkable, you don't come up with a plan to deal with it. Instead, you shout down anyone who brings up the unmentionable thing. For Europe, the list of unthinkable things keeps growing: * What if they can't deploy enough energy storage at scale to make their renewable push actually work? Unthinkable! * What if there is no regime change in Russia, and the present situation just continues for a few decades. Unthinkable! * What will they do with millions of Ukrainian refugees that refuse to or are unable to return home? And the many millions more that will be flooding in soon? Unthinkable! So this deer in the headlights inability to face reality is the leadership problem. And the sad thing is that Europe does have options. There is coal in Poland, Natural gas in Germany, Nuclear in France, Wind in Italy. They can scale up production of domestic sources and deal with the stark reality that they need to become much more energy independent OR they can spend $200 billion subsidizing the purchase of imported natural gas for consumers, just hoping that things "go back to normal after the war".
- holoduke 4y ago
  It is not accelerating conversion to renewables now. In fact coal is never been used so much in Europe. The idea of transforming into a full renewable energy society is seen way too opportunistic.
  - com 4y ago
    Carbon emissions in the EU haven’t been so low for 30 years, according to the latest CREA analysis [1] It looks to them like a price-driven transition and if you are a market forces kind of person, the investments in renewables are already following the market pricing structure. 1. https://energyandcleanair.org/eu-co2-emissions-reach-a-30-year-low-in-november/ https://energyandcleanair.org/eu-co2-emissions-reach-a-30-ye...
  - Workaccount2 4y ago
    Europe is using coal to cover a current gap. It is not building new coal to cover future gaps. That's what is being said.

Ekaros 4y ago

My issues is that they still need energy input. And this takes land, specially for renewables. And that land is close or even more than just laying the same on flat ground.

Animats 4y ago

Tomatoes and strawberries have been grown vertically. There's an ultra-premium vegetable and fruit sector, but it's inherently tiny. High energy prices right now are mostly the result of the Ukraine war. It's painful now, but it is accelerating the conversion from fossil fuels. At least if this doesn't expand into a larger war.

rsj_hn 4y ago
The high energy prices are not because of the war but because of the sanctions regime. The thing is, sanctions basically never end. It's impossible to lift them. We still have sanctions against Cuba since 1962. No one even cares about Cuba anymore. The sanctions against Iran remain in place since 1979, and have only ever gotten stricter. Same for Syria, which we began to sanction in 1986. It's called "the sanctions escalator", because it only ever moves up. New sanctions are now being introduced against China. There is no reason to think that, after the war is over, the sanctions will be lifted. I mean, why would they be lifted? Europe is not going to return to Russia the assets that were frozen/seized or start wanting to trade with Russia -- or vice versa -- moreover there are already new pipelines and trade agreements made within Eurasia that exclude Europe as a market for energy. This is a permanent change ushering in a new cold war and a new multipolar world, where it's going to be hard (but not impossible) for commodities to cross bloc boundaries. Russia's commodities are going to be flowing east and south, Saudi Arabia's will be flowing mostly to China, while North American commodities will be staying mostly in North America. After permanently and irreparably rupturing the previous trade relationships, Europe is going to have to become more energy independent, and I think they realize now that the previous energy dependence they had was a strategic weakness for them. They will need to learn to do with less energy at least until they ramp up domestically produced replacements such as nuclear or renewables + storage.
- bjelkeman-again 4y ago
  Sanctions do get lifted. Sanctions against South Africa are an example: https://www.sahistory.org.za/dated-event/european-community-lifts-sanctions-against-sa https://www.sahistory.org.za/dated-event/european-community-... EU sanctions against others may also cease after a regime change. US lifted sanctions against Vietnam. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States–Vietnam_relations#21st_century https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States–Vietnam_relation...
  - rsj_hn 4y ago
    I mean, if your hope is for regime change, then I'd recommend an energy policy that is based on something a bit more realistic. Imagine telling farmers or businesses in Germany or the UK that "Your bills will remain high until there is regime change in Russia". They would correctly view that as lack of an energy policy. Europe requires an energy policy for the world that exists, not the world it wishes would exist. We have not been able to change the regime in Syria, Iran or Cuba despite decades trying. Not sure why you think China or Russia is going to be a more realistic target. FYI, the successor to Putin is Medvedev, who is much more of an anti-western hardliner. If Europe is pinning its hopes for the future on regime change in Russia, then the people of Europe deserve much more competent leadership.
    - bjelkeman-again 4y ago
      Tell me a region in the world which couldn't do with more competent leadership. :)
      - rsj_hn 4y ago
        I think Europe is unique in terms of denying reality so much that they don't even have a plan. It's like the prospect of some things are so terrible as to be unthinkable and when something is unthinkable, you don't come up with a plan to deal with it. Instead, you shout down anyone who brings up the unmentionable thing. For Europe, the list of unthinkable things keeps growing: * What if they can't deploy enough energy storage at scale to make their renewable push actually work? Unthinkable! * What if there is no regime change in Russia, and the present situation just continues for a few decades. Unthinkable! * What will they do with millions of Ukrainian refugees that refuse to or are unable to return home? And the many millions more that will be flooding in soon? Unthinkable! So this deer in the headlights inability to face reality is the leadership problem. And the sad thing is that Europe does have options. There is coal in Poland, Natural gas in Germany, Nuclear in France, Wind in Italy. They can scale up production of domestic sources and deal with the stark reality that they need to become much more energy independent OR they can spend $200 billion subsidizing the purchase of imported natural gas for consumers, just hoping that things "go back to normal after the war".
holoduke 4y ago
It is not accelerating conversion to renewables now. In fact coal is never been used so much in Europe. The idea of transforming into a full renewable energy society is seen way too opportunistic.
- com 4y ago
  Carbon emissions in the EU haven’t been so low for 30 years, according to the latest CREA analysis [1] It looks to them like a price-driven transition and if you are a market forces kind of person, the investments in renewables are already following the market pricing structure. 1. https://energyandcleanair.org/eu-co2-emissions-reach-a-30-year-low-in-november/ https://energyandcleanair.org/eu-co2-emissions-reach-a-30-ye...
- Workaccount2 4y ago
  Europe is using coal to cover a current gap. It is not building new coal to cover future gaps. That's what is being said.