7 ms·

Funny enough I think it's actually undervalued now. Tesla has bought up all the mining rights for the minerals required to ramp up battery production and will l

Funny enough I think it's actually undervalued now. Tesla has bought up all the mining rights for the minerals required to ramp up battery production and will likely be the only EV manufacturer that's not supply constrained for the next decade. I'm still not bought in yet, probably a lot more room for it to crater.

tony_cannistra 4y ago
They have?
- amluto 4y ago
  The latest news seems to suggest that companies like CATL are, and will continue to be, the battery leaders. I imagine that CATL will gladly sell to anyone who wants to buy.
- ulfw 4y ago
  Of course they haven't bought 'all the mining rights'.
modo_mario 4y ago
Do you happen to have a source for that? It hasn't been long since Musk outed that they'd consider mining so i'm sceptical.
andrewmcwatters 4y ago
Might be actually, I didn't actually look at the DCF. Just eyeballing their PE and their growth didn't make it attractive enough to me. I feel like it should be abundantly clear.
- ijidak 4y ago
  Where do you check DCF? I had to build my own Excel spreadsheet for this. But I would love to find a place where they've already done this for me!
  - andrewmcwatters 4y ago
    GuruFocus might be OK. I haven't checked their DCF methodology, but my guess is they probably get it right.
yreg 4y ago
TSLA P/E: 36 AMZN P/E: 75 MCD P/E: 34
victor106 4y ago
> Tesla has bought up all the mining rights for the minerals required to ramp up battery production Source?
- awacs 4y ago
  I have to say, I didn't realize how strong Hydrogen powered vehicles are right now in development. That could be a legit competitor soon if they work out some of the smaller kinks and develop a fueling network. Literally zero fueling time, much less lithium in the manufacturing process and a closer feel to traditional ICE.
  - akmarinov 4y ago
    But the efficiency of taking power to make the hydrogen into liquid form only to make it back into electricity later on is horrible. Also with a BEV if you have solar, you can literally fuel your car for free. Why bother with hydrogen?
marcosdumay 4y ago
> EV manufacturer that's not supply constrained for the next decade Ok, since it didn't make the news, I'm completely on the dark here... but are you talking about the supply of lithium? If so, I have some news to you about one of the most common metals on Earth's surface.
- friedman23 4y ago
  It's not just lithium and none of this is as simple as you imagine it to be.
  - marcosdumay 4y ago
    So it is lithium. If you don't tell what you want to say, I'm pretty comfortable to keep assuming the details are all wrong. And yes, it's a simple algorithm. Yet it seems to work quite well.
- NovaVeles 4y ago
  Lithium is widely known about, the real challenge is getting it. I'm not worried about the abundance of lithium, it is the speed at which we can get it that is the issue. One can still have a shortage even if there is an abundance of potential materials. And starting new mines is a long process. The quickest I have ever seen a decent mine come online from initial approval is 8 years. Materials we should worry about long term in terms of total volume would be stuff like Cobalt, Nickle and Graphite. But not in the next decade. A big part of the whole issue of mining is something I always have to bring up to some folks. There are four ways to categorize in which a material is available. The is the resource, how much we theorize is available. Lithium is a great example, there is loads of the stuff. There are the reserves, how much we actually know exists. Where it is, what grades etc. This is always lower than the resource. There is if it is technically extract able. Do we have the technology to get it out? What good is a reserve if it is 200KM under ground? The total of this is always less than the reserves. And finally, what is economically viable. Say we can still get the materials, are people willing to pay for it? This is my big argument against mining asteroids. This is always less than what is technically extract able. Once you past through those 4 gates then we can start talking. Don't just talk strategy, talk logistics. It is boring an dirty but it is were the rubber meets the road. The abundance argument is the same used for silicon and solar panels. Yes it is everywhere but there is a reason we mine quartz rather than just boiling up random patches of dirt to get the stuff.
samwillis 4y ago
I don't really believe this narrative. Mineral rights are so easily effected by geopolitics the "rights" they have brought could easily be worthless in two years time. I'm also unconvinced that we should be 100% in on only lithium for BEVs, it's important to have multiple technologies. Just look as traditional ICE cars, we have Petrol and Diesel. I see Lithium as the Petrol of BEVs, what's the Diesel going to be?
- dumbotron 4y ago
  Normally I don't give Elon much credit, but mineral rights in third-world countries should be something he actually knows.
joewadcan 4y ago
Same. but not for the reason of mining rights. They definitely have long term contracts for their own production secured but are a long ways from cornering that market. I think the energy side of their business is about to grow tremendously and they'll reduce profit margin and continue growing crazy fast on the auto side.

tony_cannistra 4y ago

They have?

amluto 4y ago
The latest news seems to suggest that companies like CATL are, and will continue to be, the battery leaders. I imagine that CATL will gladly sell to anyone who wants to buy.
ulfw 4y ago
Of course they haven't bought 'all the mining rights'.

modo_mario 4y ago

Do you happen to have a source for that? It hasn't been long since Musk outed that they'd consider mining so i'm sceptical.

andrewmcwatters 4y ago

Might be actually, I didn't actually look at the DCF. Just eyeballing their PE and their growth didn't make it attractive enough to me. I feel like it should be abundantly clear.

ijidak 4y ago
Where do you check DCF? I had to build my own Excel spreadsheet for this. But I would love to find a place where they've already done this for me!
- andrewmcwatters 4y ago
  GuruFocus might be OK. I haven't checked their DCF methodology, but my guess is they probably get it right.

yreg 4y ago

TSLA P/E: 36 AMZN P/E: 75 MCD P/E: 34

victor106 4y ago

> Tesla has bought up all the mining rights for the minerals required to ramp up battery production Source?

awacs 4y ago
I have to say, I didn't realize how strong Hydrogen powered vehicles are right now in development. That could be a legit competitor soon if they work out some of the smaller kinks and develop a fueling network. Literally zero fueling time, much less lithium in the manufacturing process and a closer feel to traditional ICE.
- akmarinov 4y ago
  But the efficiency of taking power to make the hydrogen into liquid form only to make it back into electricity later on is horrible. Also with a BEV if you have solar, you can literally fuel your car for free. Why bother with hydrogen?

marcosdumay 4y ago

> EV manufacturer that's not supply constrained for the next decade Ok, since it didn't make the news, I'm completely on the dark here... but are you talking about the supply of lithium? If so, I have some news to you about one of the most common metals on Earth's surface.

friedman23 4y ago
It's not just lithium and none of this is as simple as you imagine it to be.
- marcosdumay 4y ago
  So it is lithium. If you don't tell what you want to say, I'm pretty comfortable to keep assuming the details are all wrong. And yes, it's a simple algorithm. Yet it seems to work quite well.
NovaVeles 4y ago
Lithium is widely known about, the real challenge is getting it. I'm not worried about the abundance of lithium, it is the speed at which we can get it that is the issue. One can still have a shortage even if there is an abundance of potential materials. And starting new mines is a long process. The quickest I have ever seen a decent mine come online from initial approval is 8 years. Materials we should worry about long term in terms of total volume would be stuff like Cobalt, Nickle and Graphite. But not in the next decade. A big part of the whole issue of mining is something I always have to bring up to some folks. There are four ways to categorize in which a material is available. The is the resource, how much we theorize is available. Lithium is a great example, there is loads of the stuff. There are the reserves, how much we actually know exists. Where it is, what grades etc. This is always lower than the resource. There is if it is technically extract able. Do we have the technology to get it out? What good is a reserve if it is 200KM under ground? The total of this is always less than the reserves. And finally, what is economically viable. Say we can still get the materials, are people willing to pay for it? This is my big argument against mining asteroids. This is always less than what is technically extract able. Once you past through those 4 gates then we can start talking. Don't just talk strategy, talk logistics. It is boring an dirty but it is were the rubber meets the road. The abundance argument is the same used for silicon and solar panels. Yes it is everywhere but there is a reason we mine quartz rather than just boiling up random patches of dirt to get the stuff.

samwillis 4y ago

I don't really believe this narrative. Mineral rights are so easily effected by geopolitics the "rights" they have brought could easily be worthless in two years time. I'm also unconvinced that we should be 100% in on only lithium for BEVs, it's important to have multiple technologies. Just look as traditional ICE cars, we have Petrol and Diesel. I see Lithium as the Petrol of BEVs, what's the Diesel going to be?

dumbotron 4y ago
Normally I don't give Elon much credit, but mineral rights in third-world countries should be something he actually knows.

joewadcan 4y ago

Same. but not for the reason of mining rights. They definitely have long term contracts for their own production secured but are a long ways from cornering that market. I think the energy side of their business is about to grow tremendously and they'll reduce profit margin and continue growing crazy fast on the auto side.