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Computers were invented in the 1940s. We're only about 80 years out from that period and look where we are now: a worldwide network of computing devices from ti
by khaledh 4y ago
Computers were invented in the 1940s. We're only about 80 years out from that period and look where we are now: a worldwide network of computing devices from tiny watches to planet-scale clouds.
In 100 years I expect there will be a fundamental shift in how computing is done. I don't know what that will look like, but it will be nothing like what we know today.
- nonethewiser 4y agoWidespread brain implants. Which might entail what is effectively telepathy among other weird shit that seems impossible. I'm not confident that will be the case. But its plausible from a technical standpoint. On a far shorter timeline than 100 years.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- tgv 4y agoNot telepathy: you wouldn't even know how to define it. "Sub"-vocal communication over radio is totally feasible, though.
- Mistletoe 4y agoOutside of neuralink fantasy PR, is it really possible to interface a computer with the brain like that? I feel like we don’t have the slightest clue how the brain works and then I don’t see how we could ever make electronics interface with synapses in a way that makes you see video, audio, etc. It seems I’m not alone and Noam Chomsky feels the same. https://www.inverse.com/article/32395-elon-musk-neuralink-noam-chomsky/ https://www.inverse.com/article/32395-elon-musk-neuralink-no...
- dsr_ 4y agoIt's a gap in understanding, and it may be a gigantic gap. Such gaps sometimes get closed by monumental efforts, sometimes by small groups, and sometimes they take centuries.
- dwringer 4y agoI can envision a system interfacing to advanced language/image models using genetic algorithms to spit out candidate outputs and using biometric readings (in the vein of an FMRI, or maybe just a polygraph) to judge how satisfied a user is with various outputs in different categories, then rapidly using the feedback to develop an output that most satisfies the user's desire. How well this could work, or if it would work in practice, seem to be the biggest questions, but I think we definitely have avenues worth exploring using existing technology. I have to say the idea of such a technology is a little disquieting if it were used the way things like polygraphs already are, and optimized for something other than the user's preferences. EDIT: Now I can't shake the mental image of Alex from A Clockwork Orange strapped into his chair for his "treatment". And certain scenes toward the end of The Men Who Stare at Goats.
- phh 4y agoConsidering how we do limb prosthetics, we won't know how to interface a brain with a computer. We know how to make a computer compatible enough for the brain to interface with the computer. This can be the way this plays out. Arguably, we already did that (make an interface that our brain adapts to): programming languages, keyboards, are already man-made interfaces our brain adapted to.
- AussieWog93 4y ago> I feel like we don’t have the slightest clue how the brain works and then I don’t see how we could ever make electronics interface with synapses in a way that makes you see video, audio, etc. For what its worth, I did (well, started) a PhD in this and you're bang on. We don't understand the brain at all, and trying to fudge this immense knowledge gap with Machine Learning is getting us nowhere. Doesn't stop the grant money from rolling in, though.
- spaceman_2020 4y agoYou reckon we'll have AGI, or at least something resembling it by then? Brain implants + near-AGI would essentially make us superhuman
- usrusr 4y agoIn 1953, people looking back at the first 50 years of powered flight imagined the wildest things to happen in the next 50. Today we have B-52 built no later than 1963 scheduled to fly well into the 2050ies. To me, the modesty of the article's predictions was a pleasant surprise after the expectations set by the headline.
- khaledh 4y agoTrue, but we also have planes that can almost fly themselves (for the most part), drones that are remotely controlled, stealth jets, and rockets that can reach Mars.
- kens 4y agoHistorical note: remote-controlled drones are not a new thing. The first remote-controlled drone aircraft was the RP-1 (Radio Plane 1), demonstrated in 1938. Almost 15,000 Radio Plane drones were built in World War II. Reference: https://www.historynet.com/drones-hollywood-connection/?f https://www.historynet.com/drones-hollywood-connection/?f
- dmarchand90 4y agoTotally agree. The biggest fallacy in tech circles is confusing s-curves with exponentials
- usrusr 4y agoNicely condensed, I hope I'll remember for future use. But I'd replace the "in tech circles" with "about technological development", because I don't think that people further away from tech are any less suspect. (but in the other hand they certainly don't indulge in rose-tinted extrapolation as much...)
- dmarchand90 4y agoOh yeah, good point, maybe something like "the biggest fallacy in predicting the future is to confuse an s curve with an exponential"
- otabdeveloper4 4y agoIt has been how many years since the wheel was invented? Somehow no fundamental shifts in how rolling on the ground is done are foreseen, despite the time frame.
- lnenad 4y agoThat's a pretty shitty comparison, comparing the concept of computers to an object.
- otabdeveloper4 4y agoA wheel is an engineering miracle, not an object. (Try making one yourself if you don't believe me.)
- bawolff 4y agoI don't know, i feel like going from a wheel barrow to a train (or car) was a pretty big shift.
- angelbar 4y agoMagLev Trains?
- dinkumthinkum 4y agoBut consider that most fundamental advances in computer science, other than maybe graphics, happened by the 1970s. What we have had since have been largely incremental improvements.