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This triggered two thoughts for me. First, how much of a killer the cold is. We've moved on from "global warming" to "climate change" language but there are a

This triggered two thoughts for me. First, how much of a killer the cold is. We've moved on from "global warming" to "climate change" language but there are a lot of places in the world that would be grateful for a few degree temperature rise (such as Latvia where I am from). Today, cold kills hundreds of thousands of people a year, while "heat deaths" are limited to geriatrics in the "first world." Second, preparedness. Most urbanites and suburbanites don't think about the weather beyond high energy bills. But it's good to pay attention to the fact that if it's 20 degrees or less out (as it is today in NY) and power or gas goes out, your dwelling is going to get real cold real fast. What's your plan? In our case we have a fireplace which is mainly decorative (it doesn't actually warm the house up beyond the immediate radiant heat) but if shit hits the fan, we got firewood enough to huddle up by this fireplace for a few days. Hopefully will never have to rely on it but you kinda have to plan for some infrastructure failings at inconvenient times. To connect the thoughts together - here, it's not totally uncommon to lose power. When it happens in the summer, it's inconvenient - you are sweaty and hot. If it happens in the winter, there's real risk of death.

kevingadd 4y ago
> "heat deaths" are limited to geriatrics in the "first world." There are multiple parts of the world approaching the point of "so hot post-climate-change that you can't survive without air conditioning" at this point, it's not a first world problem. See the map in https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/3151/too-hot-to-handle-how-climate-change-may-make-some-places-too-hot-to-live/ https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/3151/too-hot-to-ha... to get a sense of how it's an increasingly global problem. As a result eventually power loss will be able to kill you in the summer, too, depending on where you live.
- xyzelement 4y ago
  Maybe? I am talking about today. The only number of heat deaths I see on this site is average in the US and its like 100-something, likely more related to the aging of the population than anything else. To be honest I skimmed this article a few times rather that read it but I don't see anything that points to heat being anything close to the magnitude killer that cold is today. (although apparently in the US heat is a bigger deal probably because we are well equipped to handle both and don't have old people taking walks in freezing weather but they venture out in the summer)
- slibhb 4y ago
  This claim has been made, but it turned out not to be true (so far). I.e. everyone without AC did not die when the wet bulb temperature exceeded the apparent limit: https://www.almendron.com/tribuna/the-mysteriously-low-death-toll-of-the-heat-waves-in-india-and-pakistan/ https://www.almendron.com/tribuna/the-mysteriously-low-death...
carbocation 4y ago
Minimizing the fact that real humans die from overheating tarnishes an otherwise interesting comment.
- xyzelement 4y ago
  I am not minimizing but comparing two sources of danger.
- core-utility 4y ago
  And that the advent of climate control (Air Conditioning) have significantly minimized heat deaths and allowed humans to live in climates that would have historically been impossible.
  - ilyt 4y ago
    Well, unless you're poor, fuck you then
- kzrdude 4y ago
  We don't need that every comment is written with an universal viewpoint and covering all the bases. It's a conversation here, not an encyclopedia.
gadders 4y ago
Net zero will make this more common, sadly, either through energy insecurity or people being unable to afford to heat their homes.
- epistasis 4y ago
  Energy will be far cheaper when we switch to a fossil fuel free grid, because the newer technologies are cheaper, and unlike fossil fuels they are on a decreasing cost tech curve. So the sooner we build out the tech, the sooner prices fall.
  - starkd 4y ago
    During the winter, and in storms like this, solar and wind is almost nil. Upstate NY gets very cold. And they are mandating people transition away from oil or gas into using heat pumps. Heat pumps are next to worthless in subzero weather. Oh, and they are also trying to phase out nuclear.
    - Scoundreller 4y ago
      I think the ultimate combo will be air source heat pumps and pellet stoves. Pellet stoves should keep the insurance companies happy. Semi-renewable fuel. Semi-automated operation with minimal fire risk. Not much more expensive than nat gas, much cheaper than oil and propane, and most importantly: no nat gas network/connection/account/delivery charge.
      - starkd 4y ago
        How are pellets semi-renewable? Pellets are still burned up. Are the ashes re-used?
        epistasis 4y ago
        Pellets come from atmospheric CO2.
        4y ago
mysterydip 4y ago
In addition to the above, learn how to start a fire in your fireplace. I had used up my last (easy start) duraflame log a few days ago. "No problem," I thought to myself, "I have this pile of firewood here to use." Fortunately I wasn't under a time crunch to get it started, because I failed on a few attempts, had to forage for some kindling, etc.
- starkd 4y ago
  Old newspaper used to work well for kindling. But fewer people get their newspapers delivered in print. Used paper grocery bags could work.
  - Avicebron 4y ago
    Also proper organization of the wood, I have a wood stove (had one growing up as well) and learning how to build a little pyramid or log cabin like structure around something flammable helps a lot to circulate air allowing the fire to spread to larger pieces of wood. EDIT: old newspaper is good, I often use "junk mail" as long as it doesn't contain any plastic, where I am stores will still send out some paper flyers.
    - PenguinCoder 4y ago
      Don't discount using dryer lint and left over cooking grease as a starter. I have a woodstove at the house, and I use both to get it going. Left over bacon grease on a few paper towels with dryer lint around/on top of it, and a few smaller pieces of soft wood like pine. Larger/heaver wood on top and behind it like oak. Make sure to also pre-heat the exhaust vent pipe, get a draft of air going.
      - mysterydip 4y ago
        Hadn't thought of dryer lint, with three kids I have that in abundance!
      - yjftsjthsd-h 4y ago
smcl 4y ago
> We've moved on from "global warming" to "climate change" language Presumably because during winter certain people would point at a freak snowstorm and say "so much for global warming!" to try to minimise it (tbh they still do). Temperature rising has a few more side-effects than just your winter being milder by 1-2C, I think using a different term is entirely appropriate
- epistasis 4y ago
  No, because they are both accurate descriptions, but "global warming" is talking about the average temp. Even as the average goes up, the standard deviation could change too, meaning that even with higher average temp, there can be bigger and colder winter storms, which are balanced out by even higher temps the rest of the time.
  - nottorp 4y ago
    There were studies 10-20 years ago predicting that global warming will bring with it completely unpredictable weather and harsher extremes in both directions.
    - throw_nbvc1234 4y ago
      Do any governments or institutions have a live(ish) updating model of "what would happen" if trends continue? People reference studies all the time but what's the currently accepted model/outcome in the scientific community? I remember hearing that melting of the ice caps will stop current flows in the ocean and bring about an ice age. Is that actually a thing or just fake news?
      - aaomidi 4y ago
        One of the things is a weakening jet stream which has caused all the recent havoc on getting cold polar air come inland. This is why climate change vs global warming. We’re in for a hell of winters in the US as the jet stream weakens.
      - 4y ago
dragoncrab 4y ago
Heat is less likely to kill you directly if you aren't forced to do physical work without any protection. However, tens of thousands of square kilometers of agricultural land is turned to desert in Central Europe with every single degree the yearly average temperature rises. Droughts are decimating crops made for prices skyrocket even before the war in Ukraine. That has some harder to attribute but none of the less serious killer potential. On your other thoughts: I live in a well insulated home (30 cm brick wall with 18 cm graphite insulation). With a 30 celsius difference in internal and external temperature and no heating, my living room drops about 1,5 - 2 Celsius a day. Starting from 21, that gives a week before situation starts to become serrious during a complete blackout.
- nikanj 4y ago
  Heat has a well-defined kills-you-automatically limit of ~35 celsius wet bulb temperature. There isn’t a similar limit for cold.
- mderazon 4y ago
  Interesting, can you explain more about this type of insulation?
  - antisthenes 4y ago
    It's just polystyrene. The graphite is a marketing term that doesn't have much to do with the material properties.
- NorwegianDude 4y ago
  That temperature drop sounds very unlikely. If you live in a well insulated home then you must have ventilation too, and that alone should replace the air inside multiple times each day.
  - dragoncrab 4y ago
    I have measured this while being away for a week during winter. While there is ventilation in the building, it's off while noone is at home. Although the scenario in question was for a complete blackout where the ventillation would be off as anyway, your are right that people inside would need to open windows every now and then which would increase heat loss.
ilyt 4y ago
I'm perplexed how folks using gas or wood apparently have less than a week or two worth of heating stored. Back when I lived in small village we always had at least month+ (not too uncommon to buy the supply for whole winter too) worth of coal/wood there.
- Scoundreller 4y ago
  Wood is usually cheaper if you buy it green and season it yourself, but it’s a situation where it’s expensive to be poor so maybe they buy it dried or as needed through winter. You can burn green wood, it’ll just be harder to start/less efficient. If you have no choice… Wood pellets are usually cheaper in summer (and often not much more expensive than firewood once you account for the higher efficiences of pellet stoves).
starkd 4y ago
If you put a woodstove insert into the fireplace, you will get a lot more heat radiated into the house.
giardini 4y ago
Is the fireplace ready to use? Is it clear of obstructions (e.g., birds, bats and insect nests)? Have you cleared out any "creosote" (deposition from incomplete past combustion) which can make the chimney burn like a jet engine (very exciting)? Actually started a fire in the chimney and keeping it burning safely for several days can be enlightening (i hesitate to say "fun", except for the children). Try it with someone knowledgeable assisting. Keep fire extinguishers (emphasis on the plural) handy.
- glogla 4y ago
  Moreover, the way fireplaces work is that the fire heats up some kind of heavy construction (cast iron, brick, etc) and that then radiates heat. Not every fireplace is built that way - some of them are decorative and will actually make you colder. Quite a few people found out in not a nice way last time Texas has winter storm.
  - ilyt 4y ago
    Yeah if you want to rely on it as heat source you should probably get something modern that doesn't waste exhaust heat and doesn't suck the air out of the room getting more cold air in. Not just "a hole in a roof above a fire".
    - xyzelement 4y ago
      I am the original poster. As I said in my post, the fireplace is mainly decorative and we are NOT relying on it for heat. However it is our plan B/C if shit hits the fan, in which case huddling the family in front of the radiant fire is a much preferable alternative to dying of cold, efficiency aside.
m4rtink 4y ago
Well, wet heat (35+ degrees Celsius and 90+ humidity) can potentially kill you as well, as you might not be able to keep your body temperature within safe range by sweating.
maria2 4y ago
Very few places use electricity for heat. It’s super inefficient unless you use a heat pump, and residential heat pumps typically don’t work too far below freezing.
- vitaflo 4y ago
  Most furnaces require electricity to run even if the heat isn’t generated by electricity.
  - xyzelement 4y ago
    Exactly
- astura 4y ago
  Very few? Maybe for single family homes, but electric heat is very common in apartments - Every apartment I've ever lived in had electric baseboard heaters. Apparently it's #2 is the US with 37% of homes. https://www.climatecentral.org/news/your-heating-fuel-depends-on-where-you-live-18084 https://www.climatecentral.org/news/your-heating-fuel-depend... Now that I live in a single family house I use oil to heat the house - but the boiler requires electricity.
  - Scoundreller 4y ago
    37% makes sense. When you live in a moderate climate and minimally need heating, low capex and high opex makes sense. Too bad so many air conditioners don’t have reversing valves. One day I want to install a window-shaker “the wrong way” and see how well it works as a heater. As an alternative, one could put water containers in their freezer and throw the ice outside as it freezes as a rudimentary sneakernet liquid<-> solid phase change heat pump.
arlort 4y ago
The whole world being a couple degrees hotter is not guaranteed to be equally distributed. The reason why Latvia, and most of "Northern" Europe is livable instead of a frozen wasteland is due to climate mechanisms that we're not entirely sure how sensitive they are to climate change It might get a bit warmer, it might get a lot hotter or it might even get a whole lot colder Climate change is a better term because the change itself is unpredictable and likely damaging in the short term
- nazgulsenpai 4y ago
  I don't disagree with your logic but your conclusion that one term is better than the other. The globe is warming, and individual climates are changing as a result. One is not a better term then the other, people are just using the wrong terms to suit their agendas.
  - arlort 4y ago
    In an ideal world I'd agree, but since one term is dramatically easier to misrepresent I still think the equivalent but more understandable term is better
anderber 4y ago
> there are a lot of places in the world that would be grateful for a few degree temperature rise That's not how global warming works. It's not a "everywhere will go up 1 degree". It causes more extremes. Hot places can get hotter, cold places colder, but overall, the average goes up.
- bumby 4y ago
  The most intuitive way I've heard it explained is that of a long-tailed bell-curve. The mean temperature may only move a few degrees but it causes a more dramatic relative increase in the amount of area under the extreme values.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
y-c-o-m-b 4y ago
I'm not a fan of either of those terms. "Climate instability" seems a better way to depict what's going on. "Climate abnormalities", "climate volatility", etc.

kevingadd 4y ago

> "heat deaths" are limited to geriatrics in the "first world." There are multiple parts of the world approaching the point of "so hot post-climate-change that you can't survive without air conditioning" at this point, it's not a first world problem. See the map in https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/3151/too-hot-to-handle-how-climate-change-may-make-some-places-too-hot-to-live/ https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/3151/too-hot-to-ha... to get a sense of how it's an increasingly global problem. As a result eventually power loss will be able to kill you in the summer, too, depending on where you live.

xyzelement 4y ago
Maybe? I am talking about today. The only number of heat deaths I see on this site is average in the US and its like 100-something, likely more related to the aging of the population than anything else. To be honest I skimmed this article a few times rather that read it but I don't see anything that points to heat being anything close to the magnitude killer that cold is today. (although apparently in the US heat is a bigger deal probably because we are well equipped to handle both and don't have old people taking walks in freezing weather but they venture out in the summer)
slibhb 4y ago
This claim has been made, but it turned out not to be true (so far). I.e. everyone without AC did not die when the wet bulb temperature exceeded the apparent limit: https://www.almendron.com/tribuna/the-mysteriously-low-death-toll-of-the-heat-waves-in-india-and-pakistan/ https://www.almendron.com/tribuna/the-mysteriously-low-death...

carbocation 4y ago

Minimizing the fact that real humans die from overheating tarnishes an otherwise interesting comment.

xyzelement 4y ago
I am not minimizing but comparing two sources of danger.
core-utility 4y ago
And that the advent of climate control (Air Conditioning) have significantly minimized heat deaths and allowed humans to live in climates that would have historically been impossible.
- ilyt 4y ago
  Well, unless you're poor, fuck you then
kzrdude 4y ago
We don't need that every comment is written with an universal viewpoint and covering all the bases. It's a conversation here, not an encyclopedia.

gadders 4y ago

Net zero will make this more common, sadly, either through energy insecurity or people being unable to afford to heat their homes.

epistasis 4y ago
Energy will be far cheaper when we switch to a fossil fuel free grid, because the newer technologies are cheaper, and unlike fossil fuels they are on a decreasing cost tech curve. So the sooner we build out the tech, the sooner prices fall.
- starkd 4y ago
  During the winter, and in storms like this, solar and wind is almost nil. Upstate NY gets very cold. And they are mandating people transition away from oil or gas into using heat pumps. Heat pumps are next to worthless in subzero weather. Oh, and they are also trying to phase out nuclear.
  - Scoundreller 4y ago
    I think the ultimate combo will be air source heat pumps and pellet stoves. Pellet stoves should keep the insurance companies happy. Semi-renewable fuel. Semi-automated operation with minimal fire risk. Not much more expensive than nat gas, much cheaper than oil and propane, and most importantly: no nat gas network/connection/account/delivery charge.
    - starkd 4y ago
      How are pellets semi-renewable? Pellets are still burned up. Are the ashes re-used?
      - epistasis 4y ago
        Pellets come from atmospheric CO2.
      - 4y ago

mysterydip 4y ago

In addition to the above, learn how to start a fire in your fireplace. I had used up my last (easy start) duraflame log a few days ago. "No problem," I thought to myself, "I have this pile of firewood here to use." Fortunately I wasn't under a time crunch to get it started, because I failed on a few attempts, had to forage for some kindling, etc.

starkd 4y ago
Old newspaper used to work well for kindling. But fewer people get their newspapers delivered in print. Used paper grocery bags could work.
- Avicebron 4y ago
  Also proper organization of the wood, I have a wood stove (had one growing up as well) and learning how to build a little pyramid or log cabin like structure around something flammable helps a lot to circulate air allowing the fire to spread to larger pieces of wood. EDIT: old newspaper is good, I often use "junk mail" as long as it doesn't contain any plastic, where I am stores will still send out some paper flyers.
  - PenguinCoder 4y ago
    Don't discount using dryer lint and left over cooking grease as a starter. I have a woodstove at the house, and I use both to get it going. Left over bacon grease on a few paper towels with dryer lint around/on top of it, and a few smaller pieces of soft wood like pine. Larger/heaver wood on top and behind it like oak. Make sure to also pre-heat the exhaust vent pipe, get a draft of air going.
    - mysterydip 4y ago
      Hadn't thought of dryer lint, with three kids I have that in abundance!
    - yjftsjthsd-h 4y ago

smcl 4y ago

> We've moved on from "global warming" to "climate change" language Presumably because during winter certain people would point at a freak snowstorm and say "so much for global warming!" to try to minimise it (tbh they still do). Temperature rising has a few more side-effects than just your winter being milder by 1-2C, I think using a different term is entirely appropriate

epistasis 4y ago
No, because they are both accurate descriptions, but "global warming" is talking about the average temp. Even as the average goes up, the standard deviation could change too, meaning that even with higher average temp, there can be bigger and colder winter storms, which are balanced out by even higher temps the rest of the time.
- nottorp 4y ago
  There were studies 10-20 years ago predicting that global warming will bring with it completely unpredictable weather and harsher extremes in both directions.
  - throw_nbvc1234 4y ago
    Do any governments or institutions have a live(ish) updating model of "what would happen" if trends continue? People reference studies all the time but what's the currently accepted model/outcome in the scientific community? I remember hearing that melting of the ice caps will stop current flows in the ocean and bring about an ice age. Is that actually a thing or just fake news?
    - aaomidi 4y ago
      One of the things is a weakening jet stream which has caused all the recent havoc on getting cold polar air come inland. This is why climate change vs global warming. We’re in for a hell of winters in the US as the jet stream weakens.
    - 4y ago

dragoncrab 4y ago

Heat is less likely to kill you directly if you aren't forced to do physical work without any protection. However, tens of thousands of square kilometers of agricultural land is turned to desert in Central Europe with every single degree the yearly average temperature rises. Droughts are decimating crops made for prices skyrocket even before the war in Ukraine. That has some harder to attribute but none of the less serious killer potential. On your other thoughts: I live in a well insulated home (30 cm brick wall with 18 cm graphite insulation). With a 30 celsius difference in internal and external temperature and no heating, my living room drops about 1,5 - 2 Celsius a day. Starting from 21, that gives a week before situation starts to become serrious during a complete blackout.

nikanj 4y ago
Heat has a well-defined kills-you-automatically limit of ~35 celsius wet bulb temperature. There isn’t a similar limit for cold.
mderazon 4y ago
Interesting, can you explain more about this type of insulation?
- antisthenes 4y ago
  It's just polystyrene. The graphite is a marketing term that doesn't have much to do with the material properties.
NorwegianDude 4y ago
That temperature drop sounds very unlikely. If you live in a well insulated home then you must have ventilation too, and that alone should replace the air inside multiple times each day.
- dragoncrab 4y ago
  I have measured this while being away for a week during winter. While there is ventilation in the building, it's off while noone is at home. Although the scenario in question was for a complete blackout where the ventillation would be off as anyway, your are right that people inside would need to open windows every now and then which would increase heat loss.

ilyt 4y ago

I'm perplexed how folks using gas or wood apparently have less than a week or two worth of heating stored. Back when I lived in small village we always had at least month+ (not too uncommon to buy the supply for whole winter too) worth of coal/wood there.

Scoundreller 4y ago
Wood is usually cheaper if you buy it green and season it yourself, but it’s a situation where it’s expensive to be poor so maybe they buy it dried or as needed through winter. You can burn green wood, it’ll just be harder to start/less efficient. If you have no choice… Wood pellets are usually cheaper in summer (and often not much more expensive than firewood once you account for the higher efficiences of pellet stoves).

starkd 4y ago

If you put a woodstove insert into the fireplace, you will get a lot more heat radiated into the house.

giardini 4y ago

Is the fireplace ready to use? Is it clear of obstructions (e.g., birds, bats and insect nests)? Have you cleared out any "creosote" (deposition from incomplete past combustion) which can make the chimney burn like a jet engine (very exciting)? Actually started a fire in the chimney and keeping it burning safely for several days can be enlightening (i hesitate to say "fun", except for the children). Try it with someone knowledgeable assisting. Keep fire extinguishers (emphasis on the plural) handy.

glogla 4y ago
Moreover, the way fireplaces work is that the fire heats up some kind of heavy construction (cast iron, brick, etc) and that then radiates heat. Not every fireplace is built that way - some of them are decorative and will actually make you colder. Quite a few people found out in not a nice way last time Texas has winter storm.
- ilyt 4y ago
  Yeah if you want to rely on it as heat source you should probably get something modern that doesn't waste exhaust heat and doesn't suck the air out of the room getting more cold air in. Not just "a hole in a roof above a fire".
  - xyzelement 4y ago
    I am the original poster. As I said in my post, the fireplace is mainly decorative and we are NOT relying on it for heat. However it is our plan B/C if shit hits the fan, in which case huddling the family in front of the radiant fire is a much preferable alternative to dying of cold, efficiency aside.

m4rtink 4y ago

Well, wet heat (35+ degrees Celsius and 90+ humidity) can potentially kill you as well, as you might not be able to keep your body temperature within safe range by sweating.

maria2 4y ago

Very few places use electricity for heat. It’s super inefficient unless you use a heat pump, and residential heat pumps typically don’t work too far below freezing.

vitaflo 4y ago
Most furnaces require electricity to run even if the heat isn’t generated by electricity.
- xyzelement 4y ago
  Exactly
astura 4y ago
Very few? Maybe for single family homes, but electric heat is very common in apartments - Every apartment I've ever lived in had electric baseboard heaters. Apparently it's #2 is the US with 37% of homes. https://www.climatecentral.org/news/your-heating-fuel-depends-on-where-you-live-18084 https://www.climatecentral.org/news/your-heating-fuel-depend... Now that I live in a single family house I use oil to heat the house - but the boiler requires electricity.
- Scoundreller 4y ago
  37% makes sense. When you live in a moderate climate and minimally need heating, low capex and high opex makes sense. Too bad so many air conditioners don’t have reversing valves. One day I want to install a window-shaker “the wrong way” and see how well it works as a heater. As an alternative, one could put water containers in their freezer and throw the ice outside as it freezes as a rudimentary sneakernet liquid<-> solid phase change heat pump.

arlort 4y ago

The whole world being a couple degrees hotter is not guaranteed to be equally distributed. The reason why Latvia, and most of "Northern" Europe is livable instead of a frozen wasteland is due to climate mechanisms that we're not entirely sure how sensitive they are to climate change It might get a bit warmer, it might get a lot hotter or it might even get a whole lot colder Climate change is a better term because the change itself is unpredictable and likely damaging in the short term

nazgulsenpai 4y ago
I don't disagree with your logic but your conclusion that one term is better than the other. The globe is warming, and individual climates are changing as a result. One is not a better term then the other, people are just using the wrong terms to suit their agendas.
- arlort 4y ago
  In an ideal world I'd agree, but since one term is dramatically easier to misrepresent I still think the equivalent but more understandable term is better

anderber 4y ago

> there are a lot of places in the world that would be grateful for a few degree temperature rise That's not how global warming works. It's not a "everywhere will go up 1 degree". It causes more extremes. Hot places can get hotter, cold places colder, but overall, the average goes up.

bumby 4y ago
The most intuitive way I've heard it explained is that of a long-tailed bell-curve. The mean temperature may only move a few degrees but it causes a more dramatic relative increase in the amount of area under the extreme values.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

y-c-o-m-b 4y ago

I'm not a fan of either of those terms. "Climate instability" seems a better way to depict what's going on. "Climate abnormalities", "climate volatility", etc.